Today's column:

You know about "the Winner's Curse"? It's a simple way of saying that when you "win" an auction, you've actually lost. In most cases, the rational value of a commodity is best approximated by the average value that consumers assign it.

It's fashionable to say that a baseball player is, by definition, "worth" whatever he's paid. But that's only because baseball players are an uncommon commodity. Is a can of beans "worth" the highest price that someone will pay? Of course not. While there's probably some poor soul out there who loves beans so much that he'd pay $20 for a can of pintos, that doesn't mean that Acme Beans can charge $20 for that can of beans, because not nearly enough people will pay that $20.

Auctions are different, of course. It's got nothing to do with the average value; all that matters is the highest value. When you "win" an auction, almost by definition you're paying more than the commodity's real, market value. Hence, "the Winner's Curse."

With that in mind, let me describe a pitcher to you; we'll call him "John."

"John" turns 35 next May, and injuries have limited him to just 59 innings over the last two seasons. In those two seasons, he garnered 10 saves, the first 10 saves of his long career. He's a free agent, and his previous employers would like to re-sign him as their closer.

Another few pieces of information, the 2001 salaries for the planet's best closers, or at least some of the planet's best-paid closers:

Mariano Rivera: $9 million
Robb Nen: $6.6 million
Trevor Hoffman: $6.6 million
Jeff Shaw: $6.4 million
Armando Benitez: $5.8 million
Kazuhiro Sasaki: $5 million
Troy Percival: $3.4 million

It's apparent that the market value for an established closer is somewhere between $6 million and $10 million... And yet the Atlanta Braves just signed closer John Smoltz for $10 million per season.

"Ah, but they're the Braves," you're saying. "They've got the new ballpark, and the solid attendance, and golly they must make a bundle of dough from their TV broadcasts, what with having the Superstation and all." In fact, according to Kagan World Media, the Braves made an estimated $54 million last year from their local TV deals (including TBS, though they may not be counting that money since it's "in house"), and another $19 million from Major League Baseball's national deals with ESPN and Fox. That's nearly $75 million, just from TV; we haven't even got into ticket revenues ($50 million) or merchandise licensing or luxury suites yet. In 2001, the Braves paid $93 million in player salaries.

So sure, the Braves can afford to overpay ... just like the Yankees, who reportedly offered Smoltz $52 million over four years to start for them. In fact, among Smoltz's many suitors, only the Braves wanted him as a reliever; everybody else was banking on his ability to stay healthy (and productive) in the rotation.

You wanna hear something funny, though? The Atlanta Braves supposedly lost money this year. And last year. According to Braves president Stan Kasten in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "The losses for the last two years have been mammoth. We have never [before] had losses like the last two years... We clearly have had an operating loss -- a very, very serious one -- and I'll leave it at that for now."

Now, this leads me to draw one of two conclusions: either Kasten is lying, and the Braves actually have plenty of money to spend, or Kasten and John Schuerholz are stupidly spending a large portion of their limited financial resources on a pitcher who will, if everything goes according to plan, give them 70 or 80 innings next season.

Did I say one of two conclusions? Instead I think I'll choose (c) all of the above. It strikes me as highly unlikely that the Braves have really lost as much money as Kasten suggests they've lost, and it also strikes me as asinine to commit $30 million to a 35-year-old closer with 10 career saves.

I love John Smoltz. He's one of the more intelligent, genuine players in the game, the sort of player who makes me feel a bit less sheepish about spending so much time following (and writing about) what is essentially a pointless diversion. I hope that John Smoltz becomes the best closer in the game, and eventually revisits his knuckleball and pitches until he's 45 or 50, like Hoyt Wilhelm. But a 35-year-old closer with no real track record is not worth $10 million per season, and Smoltz's new contract simply raises more questions about the honesty and intelligence of the men who run the sport.

Postscript: This is the third or fourth straight column in which I've referenced MLB's perfidy, and I apologize if it's getting stale. But you know how when you get a new car, suddenly you start noticing others just like it, all over the road?

Well, lately everything that happens in baseball reminds me of how dishonest the Lords of Baseball are, and of how stupid they must think we are.

We can all use a break from this stuff, though, so Wednesday I'll write about the current Hall of Fame ballot. And then Thursday, Mr. Bud goes to Washington, which should provide plenty of fodder for Friday's column.

Rob can be reached at rob.neyer@dig.com, and to order his books, including the just-published Feeding the Green Monster, click here.