Six years ago, Ryne Sandberg was in camp with the Chicago Cubs, after "retiring" for the entire 1995 season. At that point, I was writing articles for a book called STATS Baseball Scoreboard 1996, and one of the articles I wrote was titled "Will Ryno Be Able to Come Back?"

The conclusion? "Sandberg might not be an All-Star this year ... but he should be a solid performer."

Not a bad prediction, actually. Sandberg didn't make the All-Star team, but he did finish the '96 season with 25 homers and 92 RBI, which ranked him second on the club in both categories (behind Sammy Sosa).

Looking at the article today, though, the methodology was seriously flawed, for two reasons. One, I looked at only six players from the past, because the study was restricted to old superstars. Worse, three of those six players missed time -- four years for Hank Greenberg, three for Billy Herman and Luke Appling -- because of World War II. What I didn't realize then, but sheepishly understand now, is that those three aren't really relevant to the discussion. For one thing, missing two (or five) seasons probably isn't the same as missing one season. And for another, those players all had a big advantage, in that when they returned to baseball after the war, most of their peers had also spent time in the service; it was essentially a level playing field.

So I've come up with a new list, 10 good players who missed a season for whatever reason. Below are those 10 players, along with their OPS totals in the seasons before and after the missed season:

                 Before  After   Change 
Jackie Jensen      863    742     -14%
Tony Conigliaro    860    748     -13%
Rico Carty         730    951     +30%
Rico Carty        1037    780     -25%
Eric Soderholm     780    850     + 9%
Andre Thornton     796    675     -15%
Bruce Bochte       788    678     -14%
Dave Winfield      927    790     -15%
Ron Gant           855    940     +10%
Ryne Sandberg      702    760     + 8%
Andres Galarraga   991    895     -10%
Moises Alou        981   1039     + 6%
Average            869    815     - 6%

Seven of the 12 players suffered OPS drops of at least 10 percent. Five of the 12 players improved, but only Rico Carty improved by more than 10 percent (and that was in 1969, a hitter's year compared to what had come before), and he made up for that with a 25-percent drop two years later after another missed season. Add it all up, and as a group the players declined by nearly six percent (5.8, to be somewhat more precise).

The real message here should probably be that we shouldn't generalize, because our sample size is still small, and anyway players miss seasons for different reasons. But we would expect players to decline after missing a season, if only because they're two years older (and perhaps still suffering from whatever knocked them out in the first place).

Mo Vaughn is 34 years old, he didn't take a single swing in anger last year, and anyway the truth is that he's never been that good away from Fenway Park. So I think it's likely that he will not match his production in 2000, when he hit 36 home runs and posted an 863 OPS for the Angels.

Of course, as I've mentioned before, Vaughn doesn't have to post an 863 OPS to constitute an improvement over Todd Zeile, who was at 732 last season. Zeile is significantly better with the glove, but his performance at the plate in 2001 simply wasn't acceptable for a major-league first baseman.

Fortunately for the Mets, they're counting on more than just a great comeback from a portly 34-year-old first baseman. They're also counting on a fair amount of help from Jeromy Burnitz and Roger Cedeno and Roberto Alomar. It's an old team -- and getting older by the day, what with Timo Perez and Rey Ordonez recently tacking on a couple of years -- that could blow up if a few guys get hurt and the starting pitchers aren't consistent. But it's also a talented team that could win 95 games if a few extra things go right. Going into the season, the battle between the Mets and Braves looks like the most interesting pennant race out there.