Can anyone explain the Montreal Expos to me?

A year ago, Expos hitters drew 478 walks to rank 13th in the National League.

That actually constituted an improvement for them.

 
         BB (Rank)  Runs (Rank) 
1997    420 (16)     691 (10) 
1998    439 (15)     644 (16) 
1999    438 (16)     718 (14) 
2000    476 (16)     738 (15) 
2001    478 (13)     670 (14) 

Prior to 2001, the Expos had finished last or next-to-last in walks in each of the four previous seasons (actually, the streak goes back six seasons, back to 1995). And yes, it showed in the ol' runs column, too.

Now, a lot of geeks like me blamed the Expos' poor showings on Felipe Alou. I don't know whether that was fair or not. What I do know is that the Expos averaged 8.4 walks per 100 plate appearances before Alou got fired at the end of last May, and 8.0 walks per 100 plate appearances afterward. Those numbers don't prove anything. You can't change a collective philosophy -- in this case, "If you see it, swing at it." -- overnight. What the numbers do suggest is that nobody had any reason to think things would be any better in 2002.

What's more, with the new "owners" of the Expos having little interest in actually winning baseball games, we certainly couldn't have expected big changes to the starting lineup. And indeed, there haven't been many. Brad Wilkerson has taken over in left field, but he was around for parts of last season. Chris Truby was acquired to play third base in place of Geoff Blum.

Yet somehow everything has changed.

This year, the Expos have drawn 107 walks. No other National League team has drawn more than 100 walks. No other National League team has drawn more than 90 walks. Only one other National League team has drawn more than 85 walks; the St. Louis Cardinals have drawn 86 walks.

This year, the Expos have scored 123 runs. They've scored 10 more runs than the Arizona Diamondbacks. They've scored 20 more runs than the Houston Astros. They've scored 23 more runs than the San Francisco Giants. The Expos have, in fact, scored more runs than any other team in the National League.

So where's the improvement coming from? Not from Truby. He's not a bad hitter, but with five walks he ranks eighth on the club. Here are the walk rates per plate appearance (at-bats plus walks only) for the returning starters, and I'll include Wilkerson because he did start 34 games in left field last year.

 
              2001 W/PA   2002 W/PA 
Mi. Barrett      .05         .11 
Lee Stevens      .12         .21 
Jose Vidro       .06         .10 
Or. Cabrera      .06         .09 
Br. Wilkerson    .13         .20 
Pe. Bergeron     .07         .19 
Vl. Guerrero     .09         .15 

Seven improvements for seven teammates, and most of the improvements are dramatic (granted, they're dramatic in a cold, statistical sense).

New Expos manager Frank Robinson managed three teams before this season. Robinson's Cleveland Indians (1975-1977) didn't draw a lot of walks. His San Francisco Giants (1981-1984) did draw a lot of walks, more than any other National League team over that four-season span. And his Baltimore Orioles (1988-1991) did draw a fair number of walks.

New Expos hitting coach Tom McCraw filled that same position for the Orioles from 1989 through 1991, under Robinson. He was also with the Mets from 1992 through 1996, and those teams, except for the '92 Mets, didn't draw a lot of walks. However, he also was hitting coach for the Astros from 1997 through 2000, and those teams did draw a lot of walks. To be precise, the Astros totaled 2,655 walks those four seasons, and only the Giants did better.

Before this season, Expos GM Omar Minaya publicly spurned an overt emphasis on on-base percentage, and today he told me, "I believe more in different areas. I believe in athleticism with baseball intelligence. When acquiring a player, I look at those as my No. 1 requirements."

So how does Minaya explain the Expos' performance? "Tommy McCraw has done a great job and is a great hitting instructor, and Frank Robinson has done a great job as a hitting instructor. Part of the equation is pitch identification. The players can acquire that with experience, and they've worked hard this spring."

There is one obvious explanation, of course: chance. That's possible, but it seems pretty unlikely that all seven of the returning starters would increase their patience just by luck, especially considering the general size of the increases. From 3,000 miles away, it looks to me like maybe the old dogs, Frank Robinson and Tom McCraw, have been teaching their young dogs some new tricks.