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| Wednesday, May 8 Jays vs. Rays: the AL least By Rob Neyer ESPN.com |
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As I was striding down Occidental Avenue toward Safeco Field Tuesday night, I wondered to myself, "Are the Blue Jays really this bad?" Entering their game against the Mariners, the Jays' record stood at 9-20, just a half-game better than the Devil Rays' 9-21 mark. We know the Devil Rays are a terrible club; always have been, and will be for the foreseeable future. But are the Jays in similar dire straits? Most people like me would say, "Of course they're not," if only because the Blue Jays are now run by J.P. Ricciardi, who used to work for Billy Beane and says all the things that enlightened baseball men are "supposed" to say. But for the most part, the trees planted by general managers don't bear fruit for two or three years, at best. Today, right now, are the Blue Jays as bad as the Devil Rays? Going position by position, with the "winner" in bold face, and considering the current regular or the projected regular for later this season, whoever's better.
Catcher Neither of them are hitting now, but Toby Hall will eventually rank among the best-hitting catchers in the game. Fletcher probably has an edge with the glove, but it's not nearly enough to make up the difference between their bats. Oh, and Hall is nine years younger than Fletcher. "Catcher" is a potential strength for the Devil Rays, although I should mention that I do like Tom Wilson (currently serving as Fletcher's back-up), and the Jays have an outstanding catching prospect in Jayson Werth.
First Base Cox is a good hitter, but there's no comparison here.
Second Base Abernathy gets the nod over Bush because Bush can't stay healthy, and he gets the nod over Orlando Hudson because Hudson is still in the minors. Joe Lawrence is currently playing second for the Jays, and appears to be the second baseman of the present (and maybe the future).
Shortstop Hard to say. I've gone with Lopez because he's younger, but Gomez isn't old and he seems to have recently become a better hitter. Neither of them are particularly good in the field.
Third Base Hinske's been a real bright spot for the Blue Jays, while the length of Smith's career -- 258 games and counting -- still doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Russ Johnson also playing third for Tampa, and he's an improvement over Smith, but doesn't match Hinske.
Left Field Tyner's basically a bust, his complete lack of anything resembling power completely sabotaging his value as a major league baseball player. A lot of people think that Cruz has been a disappointment and I suppose he has been, but he's also got an 803 career OPS, which means he can play for virtually any team in the game.
Center Field This one's even, but the Devil Rays have the long-term advantage, because they've got a minor leaguer named Carl Crawford who should arrive in the majors sometime next season. Meanwhile, Wells' development has been in neutral for three years.
Right Field Has the real Ben Grieve finally stood up? Nobody's noticed because it's happening in St. Petersburg, but Grieve is actually hitting this year. His OBP is where it always is -- he entered this season with a .371 career mark, and that's exactly what he's done in 2002 -- but the difference is that he's hitting with power again. In 2001, Grieve somehow hit only 11 home runs; he's already got six this season. It's likely that Grieve will not deliver on the promise that his minor-league numbers indicated, but it's likely that last season was an aberration, and that Grieve will become a decent major-league hitter. And so I give him a slight edge over Mondesi, who's just as talented but is older and hasn't played well this year.
Designated Hitter If I'd been doing this exercise before the season, I'd have considered these two guys approximately even. However, Vaughn's been unbelievably bad this season. After 112 at-bats, he's batting .107 with zero home runs and 42 strikeouts. I suspect that it's one of the worst starts in history for a player with a track record like Vaughn's. Stewart, meanwhile, is doing about what he always does. So the Jay gets the nod here. That's nine positions, and the Jays win 5-3 (with one tie). What about the pitching? Here are the rotations:
Rays Jays Sturtze Halladay Kennedy Lyon Wilson Prokopec Rupe Miller James ???? Toronto's starters have been a complete disaster. Oh, Halladay's been pitching well, but aside from him, Blue Jays starting pitchers are 4-13 with a 7.98 ERA. Those numbers are going to get better because they have to, but I'm not sure they're going to get a lot better. And there's not a lot of help down on the farm, either. You can bet that Ricciardi will be stocking up on college pitchers in the draft next month, but those guys won't be any help until 2003 at the earliest. At this moment, the Devil Rays do have the better rotation, with both Joe Kennedy, Paul Wilson and Ryan Rupe pitching well, and with both Kennedy and Wilson likely to continue pitching well. And the Rays have also got a brilliant prospect in the minors, a big right-hander with three years of college named Dewan Brazelton, who should arrive in the majors later this season. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been terrible (4-7, 5.94), Toronto's has been just slightly better (4-6, 5.53). Before I present some sort of conclusion, let me point out the big flaw in a position-by-position analysis: it treats all differences equally. If Team A has an "8" first baseman and Team B has a "2" first baseman, and Team B has a "6" shortstop and Team A has a "5" shortstop, we would score the teams even, at one position apiece. But of course, it's not even at all because Team A has 13 points and Team B only eight. With that in mind, I have to say the Blue Jays are better than the Devil Rays now, and they'll be better for the rest of this season and next. There's not a big difference between them, though. While the Devil Rays are a great bet to lose 100-plus games, the Jays are probably in the 90-loss range. And if you want to know about their futures, see who they draft next month. |
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