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Taking a quick tour through the standings, West to East and East to West ...
A week ago, I wrote that the Mariners-Athletics series was critical for the A's, who needed at least a split to keep their postseason hopes (realistically) alive. Well, the A's got their split, and today they're only six games behind the Mariners in the West.
Six games in mid-June is certainly not impossible. It's not easy, of course, and it's made less easy by the Anaheim Angels, who are five games ahead of Oakland. And while this is obvious, the A's simply have to play better. They're actually a little lucky to have a 32-30 record, considering they've been outscored by 21 runs (the Mariners are 68 runs to the good, the Angels 83).
The Rangers, 0-7 in extra-inning games, are out of the hunt, even though they have, once again, the best player in the league.
It's too early to cede the Central to the Twins, but you have to like the plucky Minnesotans' chances to make a mockery of Commissioner Bud's offseason pronouncements. They're in first place with a pretty comfy five-game lead over the White Sox, but that's due as much to luck as anything else. I picked the Sox to win the division, and I still think they're as good as the Twins. But five games is a big head start. So right now the smart money's on the Twins.
The race in the East is the race that's going to get all the attention, but what is there to say about it that hasn't already been said? I don't know, either. So I'll say what has already been said, or will be said ...
One, the Red Sox need a healthy Pedro Martinez.
Two, the Yankees will do what they have to do.
Three, the pennant race may be rendered moot because of that damn wild card.
Take a look at the National League East standings and you'll see something interesting: three teams with identically even records are tied for second place. The Mets, Marlins and Expos are all 31-31 ... which puts them five-and-a-half games behind the Braves. The East standings are shaking out approximately as I thought they would, except the Expos and Phillies (nine-and-a-half games out) have switched places. I do think the Expos will wind up in last place by season's end.
The Reds and Cardinals are pretty clearly the class of the Central. Meanwhile, the Astros are suffering a bizarre rehash of their nightmarish 2000 season, in which they finished 72-90 despite scoring very nearly as many runs as they allowed (938 scored, 944 allowed). This season, they're 26-35 despite scoring more runs than they've allowed (280 scored, 266 allowed). The Astros sport a run differential that's essentially the same as those of Cincinnati and St. Louis ... yet the Astros are nine games behind the Reds and eight behind the Cards.
With the Astros out of the running and the Pirates playing over their heads, that leaves only the Cardinals and Reds. And while they've performed admirably to this point, I'm still not quite ready to believe in the Reds. I guess I just haven't accepted the likelihood that Elmer Dessens (4-3, 2.56) and Chris Reitsma (3-3, 2.92) are really this good. And considering that the rest of Cincinnati's starters are Jimmy Haynes, Joey Hamilton, Jose Rijo and Jose Acevedo ... well, if you're a Cardinals fan, you should feel pretty good about things.
It was reasonable to think that Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling, and perhaps both of them, would suffer at least something of a decline this season. But instead, they're as good as ever, combining for 21 victories and two losses. But Arizona's rotation is essentially a two-trick pony, just as last year. So the D-Backs will go as far as their Dynamic Duo can take them.
But as long as those two are healthy, the Diamondbacks are the best in the West. Right now the Dodgers are in second place, but I trust their record only slightly more than I trust Cincinnati's. Brian Jordan's not really this good, nobody's as good as Eric Gagne has pitched, and the Dodgers are going to be without the services of their $16 million starter for at least a few more weeks, and quite possibly longer.
So while the Giants are currently in third place, they're the best bet to give the Diamondbacks a fight, if anybody does.
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