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Wednesday, January 8
 
A grade for Theo Epstein ... and a few more thoughts

By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

A few notes I scribbled while wondering how so many baseball writers could conclude that Bruce Sutter was a better pitcher than Rich Gossage ...

  • Yesterday in my chat session, somebody asked me to give Theo Epstein a "grade" for his performance so far.

    I demurred, partly because I don't know what sort of restrictions Epstein has to worry about, but mostly because it's too early to evaluate even his early performance. That said, if there's one thing that we do know about Epstein, it's that he knows a hitter when he sees one.

    The Sox have already acquired Jeremy Giambi, of course. And if you believe the Boston newspapers, Epstein also has serious interest in David Ortiz, Kevin Millar, and David Justice.

    Not a bad group. Below are their projected percentages for 2003, courtesy of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster:

     
              OBP  Slug 
    Giambi   .404  .481 
    Ortiz    .343  .528 
    Millar   .356  .509 
    Justice  .369  .448 
    

    Now, you might look at those numbers and say, "Well of course all of those guys can hit." And you'd be right. But it's also true that none of these fellows are highly regarded by most general managers, and thus each can be had for a relative song.

    Or could have been. Now Giambi is considered a valuable property by the Red Sox, and you'd have a tough time prying him from Epstein's fingers. But few teams seem to have much interest in the other three.

    Granted, those projected numbers do not assume full-time play, because none of the players in question have been full-time players in recent years. Nor -- it might be argued -- should they be. But they're so cheap that even if you platoon them, they'll be nice bargains. As things stand now, the Red Sox still have at-bats available at first base and DH. And if Epstein can acquire Ortiz and Millar to soak up some of those ABs, then he might just deserve an A for his first two months in office.

  • Another good hitter is Brad Fullmer. How good, I didn't realize until I looked him up this morning. Sure, you don't want him in the lineup against a left-handed starter, but how many of those are there in the American League anyway? Fullmer slugged .558 in 2000, slumped to .444 in 2001 (when the Blue Jays tried to make a full-time player out of him), then jumped back to .531 in 2002.

    And what does he cost? In perhaps the starkest indicator of baseball's new economics, Fullmer just took a massive pay cut, from $3.75 million in 2002 to an even $1 million -- with no incentives -- in 2003. Which is a good thing for the Angels, as Fullmer's ridiculous-in-one-way deal helps compensate for Darin Erstad's ridiculous-the-other-way deal.

    I mean, I know that Erstad's great with the glove, and of course he plays baseball like he's a linebacker (even though he's actually a punter). But last year Erstad was something like the 100th best player in the majors, in a group with his teammates Scott Spiezio and Adam Kennedy. In three of the last four seasons, his hitting stats have been considerably short of impressive. And he's worth $8 million per season, while Fullmer's worth one-eighth of that? He's worth $8 million per season, while Cliff Floyd is worth $2 million less?

    Well, maybe. More likely, Erstad is a very, very lucky man.

  • With Bill Mueller apparently committed to the Red Sox, there are now three candidates (Shea Hillenbrand, Jose Hernandez, Joe Randa) for the two open third-base slots in the majors (Denver and Flushing).

    The hot rumor is that Shea Hillenbrand is going to wind up with the Mets, which I suppose would leave Jose Hernandez to the Rockies. If I were running those clubs, I'd try to work it the other way, though. It's been convincingly argued that making contact is the most important thing at Coors Field, because making contact so often leads to a base hit.

    And of course, making contact is something that Jose Hernandez often fails to do, while making contact is what Hillenbrand does best.

    I got it! The Mets should sign Hernandez, and the Red Sox should trade Hillenbrand to the Rockies for Jack Cust and ... uh, somebody else (hey, I'm just a writer; it's not my job to figure out three-way deals). And then the Red Sox can trade Cust and Somebody Else to the Expos for Bartolo Colon or Javier Vazquez.

    And Randa? The Royals will get stuck with him for one more year and $4.5 million.

  • Also in yesterday's chat, somebody asked me about Roger Clemens' new deal with the Yankees.

    There's no doubt that Clemens can still get people out. Last year, during a season in which he turned 40, Clemens went 13-6 and struck out 192 hitters in 180 innings. Last season, Pedro Martinez (10.8) led the American League in strikeouts per nine innings, he was followed by Clemens (9.6) ... and then way behind Clemens were a bunch of other guys.

    As you probably know, strikeout rate is a good indicator of both current and future success, so there's good reason to think that Clemens still has plenty left.

    When he can actually pitch, that is. And considering how many niggling injuries Clemens discovered in 2002, doesn't it seem likely that in 2003 he'll be in and out of the rotation? Everyone seems to be wondering why the Yankees would want eight starters, but isn't the answer fairly obvious?

    One of those eight starters is Sterling Hitchcock, who pitched poorly in 39 innings last season. Another is Orlando Hernandez, who's God-knows-how-old and has started only 38 games over the last two seasons. And two others are 40-year-old Clemens and 39-year-old David Wells.

    Yes, having eight starters is a luxury. It's also a luxury the Yankees can afford -- they can afford anything -- and while they might not need eight starting pitchers, I'll bet they wind up using nearly all of them.

    Senior writer Rob Neyer, whose Big Book of Baseball Lineups will be published next spring by Fireside, will be appearing here regularly and irregularly during the offseason.





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