Back to the ol' e-mailbag ...

Rob,

Why no opinion articles on tying the World Series home-field advantage to the All-Star Game? I happen to believe that home-field advantage is crucial, especially since with home field comes the particular flavor of the DH rule a team is setup for. Look how this affected the Yankees when they lost to Arizona, or the Giants when they lost to the Angels last year.

Steve

	Mike Scioscia hopes to manage the AL to victory, as he did the Angels last October.

There's little question about it: the home field is an advantage in baseball.

Since 1980, the team with the home field has won 18 of 22 World Series, and that's probably significant.

It's a bit deceptive, though, just looking at the final results. In 1983, for example, the Orioles were the home team and they won the World Series ... but they played only two games in Baltimore, and won just one of those. The "home team" won the 1983 World Series with three road victories. In 1996, the Braves and Yankees combined for a 1-5 record in their home parks, but it goes down as a win for the "home team" in the Series, as the Yankees clinched with a victory at the Stadium in Game 6.

Looking at every game within those 22 World Series, the home teams are 81-47, for a .634 winning percentage.

That's pretty surprising, when you think about it. In baseball, the most balanced of sports, we wouldn't expect such a significant difference when two (basically) evenly-matched teams face off. In the 2000 and 2001 regular seasons, the home teams won only 53 percent of their games. So why have so many World Series games gone to the home squad?

There might be a sample-size issue. In the 1970s, only three of 10 World Series were won by the team entering with the supposed home-field advantage. That said, if we add all World Series games from the 1970s to our study, the home teams are now 116-73 for a .614 winning percentage, which is still higher than we'd expect, considering what happens in the regular season.

So I'll ask again: Why? I've got a couple of theories. The first is that in the World Series, the fans are both more numerous and noisier, which presumably does help the home team. The second theory is that the emotions of the players play a bigger part in October than they do in June, and that emotions are affected by location. Which is to say, maybe it's easier to play your best when the crowd is friendly, you're sleeping in your own bed, etc.

So to answer the original question -- which, come to think of it -- nobody's actually posed today -- yes, the home field is a big deal in the World Series, so we shouldn't treat it lightly.

Is Major League Baseball treating it too lightly? I'll try to answer that question at the end of business today.

Rob,

Do you think this year's All-Star managers will be inclined to save some players from contending teams for the end of the game, if it is close?

Do we want players from non-contenders deciding home-field advantage in World Series?

Kevin McElhaney
St. Louis

Well, it wouldn't really bother me all that much, Kevin. But I think you're operating under an erroneous assumption, which is that baseball games are decided at the end. There's no decisive moment in a baseball game, until there is one. That might come in the ninth inning, but it might come in the first inning, or the third or the seventh. Considering that almost every player on the roster will get a chance to play, who wins is simply going to hinge on which league's players perform the best.

The Neyer Plan

Home field in the World Series should be determined by three elements: 1. All-Star Game 2. Interleague play 3. Regular-season record Take at least two of those three elements, and you get the home field. The Neyer Plan accomplishes two worthy goals: it makes the All-Star Game and interleague games more interesting, and it goes a fair piece toward ensuring that the better team does get the home field in the Series.

While we're on the topic of managers, it's been suggested that a manager might make roster decisions with an eye on the World Series rather than fairness to his players-for-a-night. For example, that Joe Torre might abuse the tender right arm of Pedro Martinez in the interest of securing World Series home field for the American League ... which just might be represented in said Series by Torre's Yankees.

Won't happen. For one thing, all pitchers are prohibited from throwing more than three innings (and these days, it's exceedingly rare for anybody but the starter to go even that long). And for another, very few managers would risk their reputation by doing something that would obviously be counter to the best interest of a particular player. Yes, we can imagine scenarios wherein a manager could do something evil. But realistically, it's just not going to be a problem.

Speaking of things that won't really be a problem ...

Here's the dilemma:

I'm a Phillies fan. They're looking pretty good this year and if I were to say that they're a contender for the National League pennant, I don't think I'd be going too far out of the bounds of reality. So I'd think it's fair to say that them playing in the World Series is possible ...

So as a lifelong Phillies fan, wouldn't I want them to have the best chance possible? Wouldn't I want them to beat up on everyone in the National League so that they could get home-field advantage in the playoffs?

Which leads to this ...

If I do the right thing as a baseball fan, and vote for the best American League players for the All Star game, I'm potentially creating a situation where the Phillies would have to play a Game 7 on the road.

But if I vote for ahem the least-talented AL players (or vote a straight Tiger ticket, which is about the same thing), I'd feel like I'm supporting my team (and to a certain extent, my league), but I'm taking away from the game of baseball.

So what do I do?

Thanks,
Brendan

Let your conscience be your guide, Brendan. I think you know what you should do, but of course one of the problems with humans is that we often do things we know we shouldn't do.

So yes, there will be a certain percentage of unscrupulous fans who vote for the worst players in the league, because they don't care anything for the integrity of the All-Star Game.

But you know what? There won't be many of these people, and for the most part they'll cancel each other out anyway. So if you want to play little games with the ballots, go right ahead. Other than you and your buddies, nobody will ever know.

So what's my opinion of the new All-Star Game?

I'm happy that the players are now involved in the selection process. They know a little something about baseball, too, so why not give them a voice?

I'm not happy that the rosters have been expanded to 32 players per squad. We'll have just as many arguments about the guys who get left out, and the managers will probably still think they have to get everybody into the game, making it look more like an exhibition than a game that both sides really want to win.

But I think both sides -- and especially the managers -- will want to win. They always want to win, but I think they'll want to win more now than they have in quite a long time. The All-Star managers this July will be Dusty Baker and Mike Scioscia, and there's at least a decent chance that both will still be harboring World Series hopes. And you know that they will know the home-field history of the Series.

As a fan, I'm thrilled to think that both sides will be trying to win the All-Star Game.

Is this the best way to improve the All-Star Game, and the best way to determine who gets the home field in the World Series.

No, and no. I've written about improving the All-Star Game many times, and I won't rehash those ideas here. As for the World Series, I think the All-Star Game should be a factor ... but only a factor.

Here's how they should do it. Home field in the World Series should be determined by three elements:

1. All-Star Game
2. Interleague play
3. Regular-season record

Take at least two of those three elements, and you get the home field. The Neyer Plan accomplishes two worthy goals: it makes the All-Star Game and interleague games more interesting, and it goes a fair piece toward ensuring that the better team does get the home field in the Series.

Senior writer Rob Neyer writes four columns per week during the baseball season. His new book, "Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups," has just been published by Fireside. For more information, visit Rob's Web site.