Chasing the Pennant

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Monday, July 16
 
The Triple Crown chase is on -- again

By Phil Rogers
Special to ESPN.com

Don't bother Carl Yastrzemski just yet. Whether it's Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado or Todd Helton, it seems that some slugger makes a run at the Triple Crown every season.

Manny Ramirez
Teammates say Red Sox slugger Manny Ramirez regrets his decision to come to Boston.
This season is no different. In the American League, Juan Gonzalez, Manny Ramirez and Bret Boone all rank in among the top seven in batting average, home runs and RBI. In the National League, Luis Gonzalez, Lance Berkman and Larry Walker have emerged as Triple Crown contenders.

For commercial purposes, it's impossible to know what that distinction would be worth in the modern era. There was no ESPN or Fox in 1967, when the Red Sox's Yastrzemski became the last Triple Crown winner.

There wasn't a designated hitter, either. Nor any divisions or the Kansas City Royals, let alone teams in Tampa Bay and Arizona. The mound hadn't yet been lowered.

In this age of pitching, Yastrzemski led the AL with a .326 average, 44 homers and 121 RBI. Vladimir Guerrero produced better numbers in all three categories last season and didn't lead the league in any of them.

While the ceiling has been raised for league-leading numbers, so have the stakes for the hitters involved. Imagine the furor that would be raised if a hitter could do what none have done since Yastrzemski.

Delgado got a taste of it last September. He went into mid-September leading in homers and RBI. He needed a white-hot finish to catch Nomar Garciaparra in the batting race. Instead he hit .256 with only two homers in September, quieting Triple Crown talk.

Delgado embraced such speculation when it was alive. He believes it is possible for a modern player to win the Triple Crown, calling it "a matter of being in the right place at the right time."

3-for-3
Triple Crown winners since 1900:
1901 Nap Lajoie, Athletics
1909 Ty Cobb, Tigers
1912 Heinie Zimmerman, Cubs
1922 Rogers Hornsby, Cards
1925 Rogers Hornsby, Cards
1933 Chuck Klein, Phillies
1933 Jimmie Foxx, Athletics
1934 Lou Gehrig, Yankees
1937 Joe Medwick, Cardinals
1942 Ted Williams, Red Sox
1947 Ted Williams, Red Sox
1956 Mickey Mantle, Yankees
1966 Frank Robinson, Orioles
1967 Carl Yastrzemski, Red Sox

Here's a look at this year's crop of candidates, in the order of their chance to pull it off:

  • Ramirez: This guy might have staying power. He's tied with Jim Thome for the lead in home runs (27) and second to Juan Gonzalez in RBI (85). He's sixth in batting (.327) but has upside there. Ramirez hit .351 for Cleveland last year. In the last three seasons, he's hit a combined .356 in August and .341 in September.

  • Luis Gonzalez: If he can outlast Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa to win the home run race, he might have a chance. He leads the NL in RBI (89) and is second to Bonds in homers (36). His .353 batting average is third in the league. He's a line-drive hitter who could get singles to drop in with outfielders playing deeper.

  • Walker: Since spring training, the 1997 MVP has been hitting like his old self. He's sixth in batting (.341), fourth in homers (28) and third in RBI (85). Walker's biggest advantage is Coors Field, where he's hitting .395 with a 1.270 OPS this year. Those numbers are better even than in '97. Walker ran out of steam on a possible Triple Crown campaign that season, missing a batting title by six points and an RBI crown by six. But he's been a more productive hitter after the break than before in the three seasons since then.

  • Berkman: Who really knows what this Texan is capable of? In his first full big-league season, he's second in average (.357) and fifth in both homers (26) and RBI (82). The knee-jerk reaction is to credit his success to Enron Field but the reality is that he's been much more productive on the road than in the Astros' hitter-friendly park. He's leading the NL with a .381 average on the road.

  • Juan Gonzalez: Few entered the season with as much financial motivation as Gonzalez, who wound up signing a one-year deal with Cleveland after turning down $144 million from Detroit. He's leading the AL in RBI (87) and is fifth in homers (25). The big surprise is that he's hitting .353, which gives him the narrowest of leads over teammate Robbie Alomar in the batting race. As much as Gonzalez loves hitting in Jacobs Field, don't look for him to keep it up. He's a career .297 hitter and has played 145-plus games only twice in the last 10 years.

  • Boone: Like Gonzalez, the Seattle second baseman has responded incredibly well to the pressure of playing for a contract. A season after being non-tendered by San Diego, Boone is tied for second in RBI (85), tied for seventh in homers (22) and seventh in average (.327). The odds are against him winning any race.

    Spotlight on: Corey Koskie, 3B, and Matt Lawton, RF, Twins

    Matt Lawton
    Right Field
    Minnesota Twins
    Profile
    2001 SEASON STATISTICS
    GM HR RBI R SB AVG
    90 10 51 67 17 .311

    Corey Koskie
    Third Base
    Minnesota Twins
    Profile
    2001 SEASON STATISTICS
    GM HR RBI R SB AVG
    84 15 60 55 11 .267

    With All-Star shortstop Cristian Guzman on the disabled list, there's pressure on Lawton and Koskie to keep Minnesota's lineup productive. Both are having big months.

    Koskie has gone 7-for-18 with three homers in four games since the All-Star break. He says he no longer frets about his high strikeout total.

    "I think it's a maturing thing," said Koskie, who is hitting .326 with seven homers and 16 RBI in 11 games in July. "It's knowing I'm going to strike out and having the confidence to strike out and swing the bat. As long as I get three good swings in that at-bat -- I feel with three good swings I've got a pretty good chance to get a hit."

    With Koskie and Doug Mientkiewicz carrying more of the offensive load, Lawon has been moved from the No. 3 spot to leadoff. With his speed and on-base ability, he's a natural at the top of the order.

    Lawton has a .469 on-base percentage and .368 batting average in 81 trips to the plate as the leadoff man. He's hitting .375 with four homers in 11 RBI in July but did that damage before the All-Star break. In four games since returning to work, he's 1-for-17.

    The Twins received great news on Guzman over the weekend. No structural damage was found in his injured right shoulder, prompting hope that he could miss only two weeks. David Ortiz, the designated hitter who had driven in 18 runs in 26 games before breaking his right wrist, has begun a rehab assignment and should be back by Aug. 1.

    New face: Jay Gibbons, LF-1B, Orioles
    Baltimore stole a good hitter from Toronto in the Rule 5 draft. The left-handed-hitting Gibbons has been on the Orioles' roster all season -- a condition of the draft of unprotected minor-leaguers -- but only recently has worked his way into regular playing time. His power numbers are impressive.

    Gibbons is hitting .237 with 12 homers and 29 RBI in 173 at-bats. He's had four homers in his last nine games, including only four starts.

    "It's been a tremendous opportunity," Gibbons told the Baltimore Sun. "There have been some ups and downs, a little bit of a bumpy road so far. But you've got to expect that in your first season." Toronto didn't give Gibbons a spot on the 40-man roster even though he was a career .333 hitter in its minor-league system. He hit .321 with 19 homers last year at Double-A Tennessee.

    Gibbons says he was "just shocked" when the Orioles took him in the Rule 5 draft. He studied Baltimore's roster and concluced that he had "an uphill battle" to win a spot on the Opening Day roster. He earned one in spring training by hitting .352 but still might not have stuck around had Albert Belle been healthy enough to play.

    "It was definitely a blessing the Blue Jays didn't protect me because I'm here," said Gibbons, who has hit .407 with five homers and nine RBI in seven games against Toronto this year. "I thank the Blue Jays for that."

    Team to watch: White Sox
    Here are the best teams in the majors since May 23: Mariners (33-13), White Sox (30-16), Braves (29-16), Yankees (28-16), Diamondbacks (28-17), Cubs (28-17) and Twins (27-19).

    You've got to give Jerry Manuel and his hard-working team lots of credit for not cashing it in after a 14-29 start. But no team has ever made the playoffs after handicapping itself with that start. The Sox still believe they can be a playoff factor but it's a tough sell given their 12-game deficit in the AL Central and fourth-place standing in the wild-card race, eight games behind Boston.

    Returning from the All-Star break to win two out of three at Wrigley Field, the White Sox won this season's Chicago series 4-2 over the Cubs. But Manuel concedes that his team used a lot of energy to get back among the ranks of the respectable. It will be hard-pressed to maintain its intensity thoughout the course of the second half.

    "It's going to be a huge challenge for us," Manuel said. "We really have to step up to the plate and continue trying to win series."

    With the announcement that David Wells will undergo surgery on Wednesday to correct two herniated disks in his back, the White Sox have lost eight players for the season with injuries -- Frank Thomas and pitchers Wells, Jim Parque, Cal Eldred, Kelly Wunsch, Lorenzo Barcelo, Antonio Osuna and Bill Simas.

    The success of pitchers like Mark Buehrle, Kip Wells, Sean Lowe and Rocky Biddle has allowed the Sox to compensate for this run of injuries. But now Manuel must hold his breath to see if chairman Jerry Reinsdorf will order GM Ken Williams to reduce the $64-million payroll by the July 31 deadline.

    Veteran starter James Baldwin, who works Monday night in Milwaukee, is the leading candidate to be dealt. But Reinsdorf's history of making bold, financially based decisions has other teams asking about some of the White Sox's top players. Among them:

  • Magglio Ordonez: The three-time All-Star says he's encouraged by recent contract negotiations but doesn't have a deal in place beyond 2001. The Sox hold his rights through 2003 but one wonders if Reinsdorf has the stomach to risk two more rounds of salary arbitration. Ordonez increased his salary from $425,000 to $3.75 million last winter. He could demand more than $9 million next year and $12-15 million in '03. With outfielders Aaron Rowand and Joe Borchard in the wings, an unsigned Ordonez figures to go on the market either now or in the offseason.

  • Keith Foulke: Arizona is among the teams who have reportedly contacted Williams about the White Sox closer, who is making $3.1 million this year and could ask for more than $7 million next year. The Yankees' Mariano Rivera got $7.25 million through arbitration at the same stage of his career. Given the success the Sox have had developing closers since trading Roberto Hernandez, it's hard to see Reinsdorf paying the freight.

  • Paul Konerko: If Oakland decides to trade reigning MVP Jason Giambi, it could soften the blow by adding Konerko to help keep the A's in this year's wild-card picture and to be a regular in 2002. Konerko will receive $6 million next season as part of a two-year deal he signed last winter. The Sox have some options for replacing him -- perhaps the best being to move Carlos Lee to first and open an outfield spot for Rowand or Borchard. Jeff Liefer could step in as at least a platoon first baseman.

  • Ray Durham: Next to Thomas, Durham's been around longer than his teammates. He is eligible for free agency after 2002 and could earn as much as $6.25 million next year. He's having his least productive season since 1997. His departure could end Jose Valentin's nomadic wandering. There's no reason Valentin couldn't do a decent job defensively at second base.

    Manuel knows these scenarios are out there. He would hate to see Reinsdorf force even one of them into fruition.

    "I don't think we can afford to lose anybody else after the injuries we've had," Manuel said. "I don't think we're going to go in that direction. These are young players. I don't think we can get any younger. Magglio Ordonez is a foundational piece; Carlos Lee is a foundational piece; Jose Valentin, Ray Durham, Paul Konerko ... those guys are all foundational pieces. I don't think we can afford to move any of those players. Those are too important to the team."

    Series to watch
    Cubs at Astros, Friday through Monday

    With St. Louis going 6-13 since the night that Sammy Sosa robbed Stubby Clapp, Houston has moved to the forefront of Cub dread. Those fears will have be confronted regularly between now and the end of the season.

    The Cubs and Astros have 14 games remaining, with the next 10 in Houston. This weekend's four-game series is the first of three trips to Enron Field for the Cubs between now and Sept. 21. The teams have only one more series left at Wrigley Field, which will be played the last weekend of the season.

    On Sunday at Wrigley, Kansas City manager Tony Muser provided a chilling scouting report on the Astros. "A very good club," Muser said. "Very balanced. We didn't see any holes. They have speed. They can steal a base ... and their young pitchers have been surprisingly strong."

    With the exception of All-Star Wade Miller, the Cubs will get a look at the full Houston stable. Matchups for the series: Jon Lieber vs. Tim Redding Friday, Kevin Tapani vs. Scott Elarton Saturday, Jason Bere vs. Shane Reynolds Sunday and Kerry Wood vs. Roy Oswalt on Monday.

    Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.








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