Chasing the Pennant

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Tuesday, September 25
Updated: September 27, 7:13 PM ET
 
Hunsicker's moves key Astros' pennant chase

By Phil Rogers
Special to ESPN.com

They don't have Barry Bonds chasing history. Randy Johnson was only passing through town. Their pitching staff could go unrecognized at a baseball card show. The Killer Bs have created nothing but ZZZZs in previous trips to the playoffs.

These are among the reasons that not many people are talking about the Houston Astros. But don't confuse the absence of national buzz with a lack of playoff potential. After all, they're the only National League team that has won 90 games.

Thanks to some shrewd moves by general manager Gerry Hunsicker, the Astros have put themselves in position to try once again to bring the World Series to Texas for the first time. Despite a revolving door in the starting rotation, Houston is 42-22 since the All-Star break. That's the best record in the NL and the third-best in the majors, behind only Oakland (47-15) and Seattle (44-20).

Octavio Dotel
Octavio Dotel's bullpen work has been a big key for the Astros.

Oakland GM Billy Beane made the best deadline deal by adding Jermaine Dye. It appears Hunsicker's biggest late move backfired -- he traded Scott Elarton to Colorado for Pedro Astacio, who started only four times before being sidelined with a torn labrum. But give Hunsicker credit for acting decisively when his team stumbled out of the gate.

Hunsicker jump-started the season by pulling the plug on the ineffective Jose Lima and signing third baseman Vinny Castilla, who had been cast off by Tampa Bay. He reworked his bullpen by trading Jay Powell to Colorado for lefty Ron Villone while also adding Mike Williams from Pittsburgh at the deadline. He was smart enough to hang onto Octavio Dotel, who by blossoming into a top setup man after starting the season in the rotation is giving Houston some return on the ill-fated Mike Hampton trade it made before the 2000 season.

"I don't know that Hunsicker gets enough respect for the job he's done with the Astros," said one NL scout. "He took a lot of heat when they missed the playoffs last year but he answered his critics this year."

Under Hunsicker, the Astros have developed a stable of young pitching talent that should have them in position to contend for years. Not only has Houston gotten 35 wins from pitchers who entered the season with less than a year's experience but the untested staff has held up over the long season.

The Astros have used 14 starting pitchers this season (only three fewer than when they won three consecutive NL Central titles in 1997-99) and had a 4.81 staff ERA at the end of July. But it has been 3.14 since then, allowing them to pull away from the Cubs.

Hunsicker's decisive work to sign Castilla may eventually be what separates the Astros and Cubs. While Castilla was flounding in Tampa Bay (.215, two homers in 24 games), Chris Truby was producing runs for the Astros (seven homers, 22 RBI in 34 games). But Hunsicker saw diminishing returns ahead when he looked at Truby's .217 batting average and an on-base percentage below .300. Truby's fielding scared him, too, so he decided to roll the dice on Castilla.

Hunsicker claims his interest in Castilla was independent of the Cubs' need for a third baseman at the time. But if it was coincidental that he got the deal done two days after Bill Mueller mangled his left knee, it was a sweet coincidence.

Cubs manager Don Baylor, who had helped Castilla blossom from expansion draft pick to All-Star in Colorado, was lobbying Andy MacPhail to sign Castilla even before Mueller got hurt. MacPhail made a run after losing Mueller but even then offended Castilla by suggesting that he come to Chicago for a tryout.

"It wasn't a tough decision," Castilla said. "The people here were offering me a chance to play every day. That's what I was looking for."

Castilla is hitting .278 with 22 homers and 77 RBI in 110 games with Houston. Sammy Sosa meanwhile has driven in 89 more runs than any of his teammates (147 to Ricky Gutierrez's 58).

Mueller worked hard to get himself back on the field in August but has been nothing like the offensive presence he was before the injury (.917/.648 OPS). Ron Coomer's production has likewise dropped off in the second half (.728/.680 OPS) and now it appears he'll need a second knee surgery, ending his season.

One can only wonder where the Cubs would be in the Central or wild-card race if Baylor had gotten his wish with Castilla. Likewise where would the Astros be if they had been left to sort through the Jose Lima mess all season?

In one of those manna-from-heaven moments, Detroit traded for him on June 23. At that point, the guy who won 21 games in 1999 was 8-18 with a 6.79 ERA in 47 starts since the Astros moved from the Astrodome to Enron Field. His grumbling appeared to be contaminating the rest of the staff.

Hunsicker would have been hard-pressed to ask owner Drayton McLane to eat the last year-and-a-half on a three-year deal that paid Lima $18.75 million. But instead he not only got rid of him but got veteran Dave Mlicki, who has gone 7-1 with a 4.25 ERA in Houston. He appears to have pitched his way into the playoff rotation by winning five of his last seven starts.

Like Bonds, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio haven't been able to carry their regular-season production into October. But they are poised to change that history.

As the NL's top seed, the Astros would probably meet the NL East winner if St. Louis holds onto the wild-card spot over San Francisco. They would play Bonds and the Giants if San Francisco catches St. Louis.

Given the fits that the Astros have been given by Atlanta in past playoffs -- the Braves swept them in 1997 and won three of four in '99 -- you couldn't blame Houston players if they're pulling for Philadelphia to be the team to eliminate Atlanta. But it would be incorrect to look at the Astros as a team that needs help. They've quietly positioned themselves to go the distance.

Spotlight: Jose Hernandez, SS, Brewers
Milwaukee manager Davey Lopes raves about the play of Hernandez, who moved over from third base to claim the Brewers' shortstop job by combining smooth fielding with power hitting. But Hernandez epitomizes the all-or-nothing approach that caused Milwaukee to set the all-time strikeout record.

Jose Hernandez
Shortstop
Milwaukee Brewers
Profile
2001 SEASON STATISTICS
GM HR RBI BB SO AVG
144 23 74 36 172 .252

The Brewers are at 1,291 K's and counting. They broke the 1996 Tigers' record of 1,268 last Friday, with 14 games left to play. If Jeromy Burnitz strikes out eight more times, they will also become the first team to have three hitters with 150-plus strikeouts.

Hernandez (172) and first baseman Richie Sexson (169) are in a two-man race for the NL lead. But while Sexson is your prototypical strikeout-prone, power-hitting corner infielder, we've never seen a performance like Hernandez's from a middle infielder. He's Miguel Tejada to the 10th degree.

Hernandez, 32, is hitting .252 with 23 homers and 74 RBI. But how much have those stats been offset by his having almost five times as many strikeouts as walks (36)? Put it this way: Despite having at least 10 more homers, he trails fellow NL shortstops Orlando Cabrera (146), Jimmy Rollins (144) in runs produced (136).

Hernandez's strikeout total already matches the 16th-highest in history. He's on pace to finish with 186, only three short of Bobby Bonds' major-league record. He's already got the distinction for most whiffs by a middle infielder, passing Philadelphia second baseman Juan Samuel, who struck out 168 times in 1984.

Hernandez's attitude is just sort of shocking. "I don't care about strikeouts," he told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "I can tell my son and grandsons that I led the league in strikeouts. I'm supposed to play defense and offense. ... Somebody's got to strike out. The pitcher's got a family to take care of."

Lopes and GM Dean Taylor must ponder major changes for next season. In addition to Hernandez, Sexson and Burnitz, the Brewers also must deal with the similar tendencies of left fielder Geoff Jenkins (108 strikeouts, 32 walks in 95 games) and the struggles of catcher Henry Blanco (.197, 71 strikeouts, 32 walks in 100 games), who is a defensive standout.

"A lot of things have to go right for you to win with this kind of lineup," Lopes said. "What you hoped is this is an aberration, it's not going to be like this year in and year out."

This is the second year in a row that Milwaukee has led the NL in strikeouts. The Brewers are sixth in homers but only 12th in runs. Their .316 on-base percentage ranks ahead of only Pittsburgh. Lopes says "you couldn't" go into next season with a lineup that features four such high-strikeout, low-walk hitters. That means Taylor has some sorting out to do.

New face: Mike Koplove, RHP, Diamondbacks
With fellow rookie Bret Prinz expected to miss at least another week with a sore shoulder, the thoroughly untested Koplove has become a key man in Bob Brenly's bullpen. He worked three times in a five-game span last week.

All three games were one-run losses for Arizona, which is 3-4 since play resumed, but the only time he didn't pitch well was on Saturday, when two walks made him the loser in an 11-inning game at Dodger Stadium. While any manager would prefer using experienced pitchers in a playoff race, Brenly has been juggling kids all season.

"There might be some hesitancy if we hadn't had so much success early on," Brenly said. "[Troy] Brohawn, [Erik] Sabel, all the guys we to plug in there because of emergencies early in the season. They did such a good job it makes it easier."

Like Prinz, Koplove was promoted after pitching well as a minor-league closer. He was 7-3 with 13 saves and a 2.71 ERA between Double-A El Paso and Triple-A Tucson.

"This is what I used to watch as a kid growing up at the end of the year," Koplove said. "Everything's on the line. It hasn't hit me yet, probably more so in the offeseason ... I'll look back and see it's pretty cool."

Brenly is trying not to wear out Byung-Hyun Kim, who worked six innings in five appearances last week. He's only 1-for-3 in save situations this month.

With Miguel Batista and Bobby Witt in the rotation and Prinz sidelined, Mike Morgan and Sabel join Koplove as the only right-handed relievers working in front of Kim.

Team to watch: Giants
No contender seemingly responded as poorly to the six-day interruption in the schedule as San Francisco. But the Giants' problems run deeper than that sweep by Houston last week, when closer Robb Nen lost twice.

Dusty Baker's team is 14-16 since Aug. 16. In that span it lost only one game to Arizona in the NL West race but may have suffered irreparable harm in regard to its backup plan. San Francisco was leading the wild-card race but had fallen two games behind St. Louis through Monday.

With no more head-to-head chances to make up ground on the Diamondbacks, the Giants must count on help elsewhere. Yet four times in a five-day span they followed an Arizona loss with one of their own, including three in one-run games. The failure to win close games is haunting Baker.

San Francisco's 2-1 win over Los Angeles Monday was its first one-run win since Sept. 1. It had four one-run losses in the interim.

Nen isn't getting the big outs as consistently as he did earlier in the season. He has allowed only nine baserunners in 9 1/3 innings in September -- striking out 13 while walking three -- but is stuck with a 4.82 ERA.

The lineup is also sputtering under pressure. The Giants were scoring 5.0 runs per game through Aug. 16 but have seen that total reduced to 4.2 in the last 30 -- and even that total is misleading. Barry Bonds and Co. have broken loose to score nine-plus runs six times in that stretch, winning each of those games by at least four runs, but have scored three or fewer runs in 18 of the other 24 games.

To sum up: Down the stretch, when the Giants don't score at least nine runs they average 2.7. No wonder Baker is grinding away on toothpicks.

Take away Bonds' average of .373 and the Giants would be hitting .230 in September. The team average is .242 even when including Bonds.

Jeff Kent is leading the struggle. He's hitting .266 with one homer and only seven RBI in 64 September at-bats. Catcher Benito Santiago is hitting .196 with one RBI in 46 at-bats. Center fielder Calvin Murray is hitting .139 with two RBI in 36 at-bats. Third baseman Pedro Feliz is even worse, at .077 with two RBI in 26 at-bats.

Midseason pickups Andres Galarraga and John Vander Wal are hitting .244 and .200, respectively, in the month, while Shawon Dunston (.238) and Eric Davis (.182) haven't provided much help off the bench.

If age has contributed to the slowing down of bats -- Feliz is the only one in this group under 30 -- then Baker must hope that experience will allow his veterans to turn themselves around the final 11 games.

Following the three-game series in Los Angeles that began Monday night, the Giants return to Pac Bell to play San Diego. They finish the season by making up three games in Houston and three at home against the Dodgers.

Suddenly Bonds might have a better chance to pass Mark McGwire than to compete against him in the postseason.

Series to watch
Reds at Phillies, Tuesday-Thursday
Outside of Bonds' quest for 70, there's no more captivating storyline left in the regular season than the Braves' fight to win a 10th division title in a row (not including the 1994 strike season). The Phillies took three of four against Atlanta last week, then kept up the heat by winning two of three from Florida over the weekend.

Philadelphia enters this series tied with the Braves in the NL East. It may need to sweep the down-and-out Reds as these are the season's final scheduled games at the Vet, where the Phillies are 46-32. Larry Bowa's team finishes its season with a nine-game road trip to Florida, Atlanta and Cincinnati.

Due to a quirk of the schedule compounded by the six-day interruption, the Phillies and Reds are meeting for the first time this season in what was to be the last week. The Diamondbacks and Brewers will share the distinction of having their first meeting against an opponent at the latest date in history.

Rookie Dave Coggin meets new Red Joey Hamilton in Tuesday's opener. Bowa will follow Coggin with Randy Wolf and Omar Daal. The Reds will give Wednesday's start to 29-year-old rookie knuckleballer Jared Fernandez, who was second in the National Association with 196 1/3 innings pitched, and start rookie Lance Davis Thursday.

While Philadelphia ends its regular-season schedule with a nine-game trip, Atlanta gets to play its final nine at Turner Field. A day off Monday gives both teams a chance to juggle their rotation for the series next Tuesday-Thursday. The only two starters who definitely won't work are Braves right-hander John Burkett and Coggin.

Tentative matchups have Wolf against Kevin Millwood Tuesday, Daal against Jason Marquis Wednesday and Robert Person against Greg Maddux Thursday. Bobby Cox could get Tom Glavine a start in the series by skipping Marquis but isn't likely to for two reasons: 1) Marquis has been pitching well (1-3, 2.45 in his last seven starts) and 2) Maddux would also miss a chance to get an extra day of rest.

Maddux left his last start on Saturday after only six pitches because of a hyperextended elbow. He had a normal side session on Monday and expects to start as scheduled Friday against New York. The way the Braves' rotation currently lines up, Millwood is the only guy with three starts remaining. Maddux and Glavine only start once each in Atlanta's final seven games.

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.







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