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| Monday, January 7 Updated: January 8, 11:31 PM ET Bottom feeders may be closing gap By Phil Rogers Special to ESPN.com |
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What happened to the honeymoon? Never has a team gotten less from so much as did the 116-win Seattle Mariners. It's possible the downward trend that began when Lou Piniella opened the ALCS with Aaron Sele and Freddy Garcia working on three days' rest just might extend all the way into 2002.
With Jason Giambi gone from Oakland for the want of a nail -- one of those no-trade clauses that even a lunkhead like David Wells can command -- the Mariners will be favored to do what they've never done: repeat as AL West champs. But the gap between the top of baseball's winningest division and the bottom could be far less than it was in 2001. The Anaheim Angels and Texas Rangers, teams that were a combined 49 games out at the All-Star break a season ago, will go to spring training with real chances to spring a surprise similar to the one that Pat Gillick hatched after Alex Rodriguez left Seattle. While Oakland lost its mojo when it went 0-for-3 at retaining free agents Giambi, Johnny Damon and Jason Isringhausen, the foundation is still intact in starting pitchers Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. Will this division be winnable by anyone other than Seattle? If the Mariners slide enough, it just might be. But second place probably won't be worth as much as it has been. The improvement of the Angels and Rangers makes it unlikely the wild card will come from the West for a third season in a row. It's hard to say how far Seattle will fall next season. The five previous teams that won at least 110 games declined by an average of 15 victories the following seasons. You better believe Gillick and Piniella would take 101 wins right now. Fifteen-game winner Sele, backup outfielder Stan Javier and erratic reliever Jose Paniagua are the only major parts the Mariners have lost. The major challenge for Piniella isn't replacing them but getting similar performances from MVP Ichiro Suzuki and these four veterans coming off career years:
Gillick has imported National League castoffs Jeff Cirillo and Ben Davis, who should upgrade the Mariners at third and catcher. He's taking a major gamble in left field, entrusting a lot of square footage to erstwhile Cancun Lobsterman Ruben Sierra, who last drove in more than 75 runs in 1995. Gillick's current focus appears to be adding an arm or two to a pitching staff expected to get a big lift from kids Joel Pineiro, Gil Meche and Ryan Anderson, the latter two coming off injuries. While the arbitration status of Boone and David Bell complicate planning, the belief is Gillick has $5 million at the most left to spend. It's a good bet the Mariners will end up with at least one of two Japanese pitchers, lefty Kazuhisa Ishii or Anaheim castoff Shigetoshi Hasegawa. Seattle will be hard-pressed to match the improvement of the Angels, who find themselves in great shape after a bizarre winter. They certainly have imagination -- and starting pitching, too. Despite the bumps (such as ownership reneging on the Darin Erstad trade with the White Sox) and spills (such as making little effort to keep closer Troy Percival from free agency after 2002) and cutting loose Hasegawa, a valued set-up man, the Angels have somehow put together a team that could win 90 games if GM Bill Stoneman adds a hitter or two. One hand hasn't always known what the other is doing in Anaheim, with much of the confusion caused by the emergence of Paul Pressler as the baseball power at Disney. It was apparently Pressler, not Tony Tavares (who resigned last week as team president), who nixed the Erstad trade. It would have made sense if the Angels were commited to rebuilding -- the Angels were getting center fielder Chris Singleton, a potential ace in Jon Garland and two minor leaguers, one of whom was reported to be front-line pitching prospect Brian West -- but unbeknownst to almost everyone, Pressler had other plans. He has a free hand to execute them after the recent resignation of Tavares and hopes to increase attendance. "If we build a competitive team, they will come," Pressley told the Los Angeles Times last week. "We're really focused on that." By signing Sele and trading Vaughn to the Mets for Kevin Appier, the Angels have given themselves the deepest starting rotation in the majors -- and one they might be able to keep together at least three seasons. "If it's true that pitching wins pennants, we've got a leg up on a lot of clubs," Stoneman said. It remains to be seen if the Angels will give their starters any run support. But by adding two proven winners to a mix that included 28-year-old Scott Schoeneweis, 27-year-old Ramon Ortiz and 26-year-old Jarrod Washburn, Stoneman has given manager Mike Scioscia a rotation that should match up with the top-heavy ones in Oakland and Seattle. Anaheim's fivesome was 60-47 with a 4.08 ERA in 160 starts last season. While that doesn't exactly match the Yankees' front four (Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Orlando Hernandez were 56-31 with a 3.70), it is impressive. It is also the only current rotation in the majors featuring five starters who worked at least 193 innings last season. Appier, 34, has three years to go on his contract. The White Sox turned up their noses when the Mets offered him, but Stoneman believes he's the ace the Angels have been missing. He's not concerned Appier can demand a trade after next season.
"We plan to win so many games and have so much fun in 2002 that Kevin will be calling all of his buddies to come here," Stoneman said. Another move or two may be necessary for that to happen. The Angels allowed the fourth fewest runs in the AL last year yet won only 75 games. That was because their offense produced 4.3 runs per game, which ranked ahead of only Baltimore and Tampa Bay. The star-crossed Vaughn, who missed all of 2001 with a torn biceps tendon, was expected to provide a one-man upgrade. But with him no longer in the picture, Stoneman will have to either count on Tim Salmon finding the Fountain of Youth or look for other ways to improve the lineup. Anaheim has room to add at least two hitters, with holes at first base -- currently filled by Scott Spiezio, who has never driven in more than 65 runs -- and designated hitter. Erstad could move to first base, opening up a spot for an outfielder. The Angels could also upgrade a middle infield that currently has second-year man David Eckstein, third-year man Adam Kennedy and journeyman Benji Gil. Stoneman didn't have enough budget left after signing Sele to even get a deal with Reggie Sanders, who signed with San Francisco for a guarantee of only $2.25 million. If nothing else, the Angels should at least find a way to bring back Jose Canseco, who they mistakenly released last spring. His .843 OPS with the White Sox would have ranked behind only Troy Glaus among Anaheim regulars. Of course, given the roll that John Hart is on, Canseco and Rickey Henderson will probably wind up in Texas, alongside Gonzalez and, oh, maybe Danny Tartabull. The new Texas GM is so 24-7 motivated to satisfy owner Tom Hicks' craving for instant gratification that anything is possible -- anything except a new deal for future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, that is. To recap: Trying to improve a team that allowed half a run per game more than any team in the majors last season -- and more than two runs per game more than Seattle -- Hart has signed Chan Ho Park (five years, $65 million) and rounded up outcasts Carl Everett, John Rocker and Hideki Irabu since the middle of December. He jumped into the middle of the negotiations for both Gonzalez -- signing him to a two-year contract -- and Ishii last week and has been closely monitoring Pedro Astacio in the Dominican Republic. So much for anybody who expected Texas to tread water for a couple of years after finishing 43 games out. Hicks didn't give A-Rod the $252 million -- not to mention artistic control -- as the first part of a rebuilding plan. In Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock, Carlos Pena, Jason Romano and Travis Hafner, the Rangers join the Padres with the best collection of minor-league hitters. Of course, they haven't won the last two seasons despite one of the best collections of major-league hitters. Texas needs pitching but isn't likely to get studs through the draft -- not with Hart and predecessor Doug Melvin giving away five high picks to sign free agents Rodriguez, Park, Mark Petkovsek, Todd Van Poppel and Jay Powell. And what about the other Rodriguez? Managers around the AL debate who has more impact on winning, Pudge or A-Rod. But the Rangers have thrown money in every direction except toward their catcher. It looks like they have decided to trade him once he's proven his knee is fine. The best guess is he'll go somewhere after Memorial Day. Hart might as well find out what manager Jerry Narron -- who could be revelation -- can do with the strange canvas he's being given in his first full year on the job. It's more like a splash painting than one of Gillick's master works but it could still capture the public's eye for a little while, anyway. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, at least until the standings return to the newspaper.
Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com. |
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