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To players, Opening Day rosters are an address list -- they get to see where all their friends wound up after the winter's blizzard of transactions. To young hopefuls just breaking in, the lists are reassurance that clubs are counting on them for the long haul.
But to me, Opening Day rosters are like Play-doh. With handy-dandy database and spreadsheet programs you can mold them, massage them and mush them all sorts of ways, never quite knowing what you're gonna come up with.
One question often posed regarding Opening Day rosters is how many players have been developed by different farm systems. But now we can go so much deeper with just a few clicks. (Actually, about 82,513 clicks, after you screw up the coding enough times getting it all working properly.) Who produced the best players? Who has developed the most home runs, steals and pitcher's wins? Also, which draft rounds and colleges produced the most players? And how good were they? Integrated databases -- involving signing information, statistics and more -- provide those answers.
Here's a detailed analysis of the 826 players, active and disabled, on this year's Opening Day rosters:
Organizations
Many organizations rate their drafts and minor-league systems by the number of players who wind up reaching the big leagues. For those who prefer that simple approach, here are the organizations who originally signed each of the 826 players:
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Team (players signed)
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Notable signees
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1. Dodgers (46)
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Mike Piazza, Pedro Martinez, Paul Konerko
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2. Expos (42)
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Randy Johnson, Vladimir Guerrero, Larry Walker
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3. Blue Jays (40)
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Shawn Green, John Olerud, David Wells
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4. Braves (39)
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Tom Glavine, Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones
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5. Yankees (37)
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Derek Jeter, Alfonso Soriano, Al Leiter
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6. Rangers (38)
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Sammy Sosa, Ivan Rodriguez, Kevin Brown
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7. Mariners (35)
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Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez
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8. Indians (32)
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Jim Thome, Brian Giles, Bartolo Colon
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9. Royals (32)
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Mike Sweeney, Kevin Appier, Carlos Beltran
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10. Twins (30)
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Torii Hunter, Brad Radke, Jesse Orosco
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11. Mets (30)
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Edgardo Alfonzo, Jason Isringhausen, Fernando Vina
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12. Astros (29)
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Craig Biggio, Luis Gonzalez, Bobby Abreu
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13. White Sox (28)
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Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, Mark Buehrle
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|
14. Cardinals (27)
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Matt Morris, Albert Pujols, Brian Jordan
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15. Tigers (27)
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John Smoltz, Bobby Higginson, Jeff Weaver
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16. Red Sox (26)
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Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell
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17. Reds (26)
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Barry Larkin, Trevor Hoffman, Reggie Sanders
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18. Athletics (26)
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Jason Giambi, Barry Zito, Miguel Tejada
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19. Pirates (25)
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Barry Bonds, Moises Alou, Jason Kendall
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20. Phillies (24)
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Scott Rolen, Julio Franco, Pat Burrell
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21. Giants (23)
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Matt Williams, John Burkett, Russ Ortiz
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22. Cubs (23)
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Greg Maddux, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Grace
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23. Angels (22)
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Jim Edmonds, Troy Percival, Tim Salmon
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24. Padres (22)
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Roberto Alomar, Benito Santiago, Sandy Alomar Jr.
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25. Orioles (21)
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Mike Mussina, Steve Finley, Armando Benitez
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26. Brewers (18)
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Gary Sheffield, B.J. Surhoff, Ben Sheets
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27. Rockies (17)
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Todd Helton, Jason Jennings, Craig Counsell
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28. Marlins (16)
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Charles Johnson, Edgar Renteria, Josh Beckett
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29. Diamondbacks (16)
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Erubiel Durazo, Byung-Hyun Kim, Vicente Padilla
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30. Devil Rays (9)
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Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Aubrey Huff
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Of course, developing a bunch of scrubs is nowhere near as valuable as a few superstars. So which teams' players have performed best? Here's where the integrated databases come in handy.
These are the top and bottom five organizations in various categories, including Bill James' Win Shares, his new system which assigns each player a single integer based on his total hitting, pitching and defensive value. Only the 26 non-'90s expansion clubs are included because the last four clubs haven't been around long enough to truly compete:
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|
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Win Shares
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Home runs
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Steals
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Wins
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ERA
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Top 5
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1.
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Dodgers (2560)
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Rangers (2298)
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Dodgers (1599)
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Dodgers (946)
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Expos
(3.73)
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2.
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Expos
(2524)
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Expos (2240)
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Astros (1579)
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Blue Jays (820)
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Cubs
(3.76)
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|
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3.
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Rangers (2483)
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Mariners (1966)
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Expos (1533)
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Red Sox (756)
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Red Sox (3.78)
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|
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4.
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Yankees (2285)
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Braves (1874)
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Pirates (1181)
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Cubs
(704)
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Dodgers (3.84)
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|
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5.
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Blue Jays (2233)
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Yankees (1751)
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Reds
(1136)
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Rangers (698)
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Mariners (3.91)
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Bottom 5
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22.
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Orioles (1139)
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Reds
(777)
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Cubs
(418)
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Athletics (261)
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Padres (4.32)
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23.
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Cardinals (1135)
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Giants
(722)
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Mets
(413)
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Astros
(240)
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Phillies (4.34)
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24.
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Mets
(1070)
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Tigers
(641)
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Tigers
(401)
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Padres
(203)
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Pirates (4.41)
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|
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25.
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Phillies
(964)
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Phillies
(608)
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Athletics (297)
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Brewers (199)
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White Sox (4.44)
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|
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26.
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Tigers
(919)
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Orioles
(578)
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Indians
(289)
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Mets
(149)
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Brewers (4.64)
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It's interesting to see the Expos so high on the home runs, steals and ERA list, leading to their No. 2 overall ranking in Win Shares; of course developing players and keeping them are two different things. The Dodgers are way ahead of everyone else in pitching wins not just because they developed Pedro Martinez (152) but because they also have five guys with around 100 (Pedro Astacio, John Franco, Hideo Nomo, Chan Ho Park and Ismael Valdes). And something tells us the A's, with their Hudson-Zito-Mulder troika, won't be stuck at No. 22 for long.
There's one problem with all, this, though -- frankly, I'm a little tired of crediting the Dodgers for Franco some 22 years ago, and for that matter the Pirates for Barry Bonds in 1985, because it skews how we evaluate the performance of recent organizations. So I did the same analyses with the 649 big leaguers (79 percent of the original 826) who signed since 1990. Here's how they looked:
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Win Shares
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Home runs
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Steals
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Wins
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ERA
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|
Top 5
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1.
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Mariners (1233)
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Braves
(922)
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Expos
(638)
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Dodgers (491)
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Mariners (3.91)
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2.
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Yankees (1146)
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Expos
(892)
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Royals
(629)
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Indians
(428)
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Giants
(4.00)
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|
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3.
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Expos (1136)
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Athletics
(889)
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Marlins
(587)
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Yankees (394)
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Expos
(4.04)
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|
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4.
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Indians (1046)
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Mariners (884)
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White Sox (555)
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Orioles
(380)
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Yankees (4.04)
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|
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5.
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Royals
(946)
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Royals
(770)
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Mariners (544)
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Mariners (365)
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Mets
(4.05)
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Bottom 5
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22.
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Red Sox (550)
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Brewers (319)
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Red Sox (151)
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Cardinals (157)
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Royals (4.58)
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|
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23.
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Giants
(473)
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Giants
(216)
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Giants
(151)
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Mets
(149)
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Red Sox (4.59)
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|
|
24.
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Brewers (455)
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Padres
(153)
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Brewers (137)
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Giants
(149)
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Tigers
(4.60)
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|
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25.
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Cubs
(377)
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Orioles
(151)
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Rangers (126)
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Phillies
(130)
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Brewers (4.62)
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|
|
26.
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Padres
(250)
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Cubs
(106)
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Padres
(68)
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Brewers
(69)
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Rangers (4.65)
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What's amazing here is how some established organizations compare with their expansion competitors. The Brewers have developed 30 wins fewer than the Diamondbacks have (99) in half the time; Cubs signees have hit just 106 home runs, compared to 150 for the Diamondbacks. The Padres produced less than half the win shares that the Marlins (653) have. Note how I left the Marlins third on the stolen-base list despite their expansion status -- expansion or not, they earned it.
The draft
Not surprisingly, looking at all 826 players again, more were drafted in the first round (166) than any other, followed by the second (51) and third (35). One weird twist was the 23rd round having 11 (including Roy Oswalt), more than twice as many players as the 12th round (five). But that's the baseball draft for you.
Other notes on the draft include:
Which draft has the most players in the big leagues this year? 1996, with 64, followed by 1991 (54) and 1998 (52). The earliest draftee was Jesse Orosco (Twins, January 1978). No 2002 draftee was on an Opening Day roster, but three from 2001 were: Mark Prior (No. 2 overall), Mark Teixeira (5) and Jeremy Bonderman (26).
The lowest-drafted player? Other than the 22 eligible guys who weren't drafted at all, Padres right-hander Brandon Villafuerte was taken in the 66th round by the Mets in 1996.
Which is the first round not to have any player? The 35th.
Countries
Major League Baseball releases an annual report to demonstrate how international the game has become; this year's had 79 players born in the Dominican Republic, 38 in Puerto Rico and 37 in Venezuela.
But we can go deeper. I assign players to the countries from which they signed -- some Dominicans play at U.S. colleges, for example -- so I've worked with those numbers. Here are the statistics for various countries:
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Players
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Win Shares
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Home Runs
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Wins
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|
1.
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USA (619)
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USA (33,555)
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USA (23,820)
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USA (10,320)
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2.
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Dominican (74)
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Puerto Rico (3246)
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Puerto Rico (3413)
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Dominican (790)
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3.
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Venezuela (39)
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Dominican (3118)
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Dominican (2373)
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Venezuela (235)
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4.
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Puerto Rico (35)
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Venezuela (1565)
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Venezuela (1212)
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Japan (176)
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5.
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Mexico (13)
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Canada (568)
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Canada (554)
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Mexico (172)
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Some notes:
Although Puerto Rico has just 4.2 percent of the players, the country accounts for 10.6 percent of the home runs -- more than 2½ times what you'd expect. That happens when you have Juan Gonzalez, Ruben Sierra, Edgar Martinez, Carlos Delgado and Bernie Williams on the payroll.
Canada has just seven players -- Rheal Cormier, Ryan Dempster, Eric Gagne, Corey Koskie, Matt Stairs, Larry Walker and Jeff Zimmerman -- but they're good enough en masse to place fifth in the win shares standings.
Colleges
Of the 826 players, 331 signed out of college, 99 out of junior college and 217 out of high school. A total of 179 were draft-ineligible, international signees. As for specific colleges, perennial powerhouses Southern California and Louisiana State led with 11 and 10 players apiece. (To see which schools produced which players, click here. The top 10 colleges in various statistics:
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Players
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Win Shares
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Home runs
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Wins
|
|
1.
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USC (11)
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USC (805)
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UCLA (823)
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Texas (293)
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2.
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LSU (10)
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Arizona St. (748)
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Arizona St. (689)
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USC (277)
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3.
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Miami (9)
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UCLA (657)
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USC (527)
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Stanford (266)
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4.
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Georgia Tech (8)
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Seton Hall (618)
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Seton Hall (520)
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Ga. Tech (198)
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5.
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UCLA (8)
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Arizona (589)
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Okla. St. (515)
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Arizona (185)
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6.
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Cal St. Full. (8)
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Ga. Tech (501)
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Miss. St. (500)
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LSU (165)
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7.
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*
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Auburn (461)
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Auburn (410)
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St. Joe's (164)
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8.
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*
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Okla. St. (429)
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UNLV (385)
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Antelope Valley (Cal.) JC (161)
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9.
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*
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Wash. St. (422)
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Hartford (380)
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Yavapai (Ari.) JC (155)
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10.
|
*
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S. Alabama (406)
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Tennessee (371)
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Minnesota (149)
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* Nine schools -- Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Long Beach State, Mississippi, South Alabama, Tennessee, Washington State and Wichita State -- tied with five players apiece.
More college tidbits:
It's pretty easy to see how one player can put his school on the list all by himself. Nos. 7, 8 and 9 on the wins chart belong to Jamie Moyer, Kevin Appier and Curt Schilling exclusively. And all but 76 of Arizona State's 689 home runs belong to Barry Bonds.
Seton Hall has just three alums -- Craig Biggio, Mo Vaughn and Matt Morris -- but places fourth in win shares and home runs. Where have you gone, John Valentin?
Texas once was a pitching factory, with Burt Hooton, Greg Swindell and many others, but that 293 wins to lead all colleges should look familiar -- it's all Roger Clemens. (Alas, the Astros released Shane Reynolds right before Opening Day.) Our guess is that Southern Cal's Randy Johnson, Barry Zito and Mark Prior will blow past the Longhorns this year.
Alan Schwarz is the senior writer of Baseball America magazine and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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