The scores on the old out-of-town scoreboard Saturday looked like
something out of 1968:
Two 1-0 games. Two 2-1 games. One 3-2 game. Two 5-4 games.
Amazing. All we needed was shutouts by Bob Gibson and Denny McLain, and
we'd have been caught in an official time warp.
But in case you hadn't caught on to this trend before now, it's been that
kind of year. Sort of.
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Triviality
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The late, great Wilver D. Stargell hit 475 home runs while playing for
just one team in his career (you know which one). That's something only
seven other players in history have ever done. Can you name them?
(Answer at bottom.)
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It's been a long time since you could show up at a baseball game and
have a soccer score break out. But those days are back. Consider this:
Over the first two weeks of this season, we've already seen 36 games in
which the winning team scored three runs or fewer. At the same stage of last
season, there had been just 19 games like that.
We've already seen four 1-0 games this year. There had been just one at
this stage last year.
And runs scored are down by 8.6 percent overall, 13.4 percent in the
American League.
So what's the deal?
The easy answer is – OK, all together now – the new strike zone. But
that's way too easy.
In fact, Phillies GM Ed Wade goes so far as to say, "There's no way you
can attribute this to the strike zone. You don't have enough pitchers trying
to pitch up there to have that kind of impact."
You also don't have enough umpires calling the high strike consistently
for that zone to suddenly produce four pitchers' duels a day.
"It would be nice to think the transition (to calling this zone) would be
some nice, neat tidy deal," says Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker. "But we all have
to realize the umpires are going to continue to have their own strike zones.
"I've actually seen some umpires who have had even bigger strike zones. They're not only calling the high strike, but they're giving the pitch off
the corner. And in those cases, they're having a big impact."
But the consensus of players we've sampled is that on the average, we're
talking about maybe a half-dozen pitches a game that are called strikes now
but weren't before.
So that sure isn't enough to turn an 11-8 game into a 2-1 game.
Some players have theorized that the hitters affected most are the guys
who depend on working the count. Hmmm. Take a look at the top five in walks
in each league last year – and how they've fared this April vs. last April:
AL
APRIL 2001 APRIL 2000
Jason Giambi .410 avg., .540 OBP .295, .392
Carlos Delgado .300 avg., .414 OBP .319, .430
Jim Thome .132 avg., .233 OBP .253, .310
Troy Glaus .267 avg, .370 OBP .319, .423
Frank Thomas .270 avg., .417 OBP .363, .446
NL
APRIL 2001 APRIL 2000
Barry Bonds .214 avg., .320 OBP .300, .440
Brian Giles .267 avg., .320 OBP .341, .425
Jeff Bagwell .349 avg., .500 OBP .349, .456
Jim Edmonds .423 avg., .444 OBP .382, .515
Todd Helton .279 avg., .360 OBP .337, .440
What do we make of all that? Some guys have been affected minimally. Some
have been affected a lot. Most guys' numbers are down. But Jason Giambi and
Jeff Bagwell are up significantly in on-base percentage.
Then there are the A's, who took almost two weeks to score more than five
runs a game. Some scouts have theorized the strike zone has hurt them. But
their GM, Billy Beane, seems to rank that theory right up there with the Loch
Ness Monster theories.
"If that's true, then why are we third in the league in walks?" Beane
wonders. "We've gotten into hitters' counts. We just haven't hit in those
counts. There's no reason other than that. We had the same strike zone in
spring training, if not higher. And we led everyone in spring training in
runs scored. So I'd be careful making any definitive statements this early."
The fact is, if it isn't the strike zone, then there is no other
explanation. The two new ballparks in Milwaukee and Pittsburgh aren't
pitchers' parks. The weather has been fine. Everything else is the same. So
figure it out. No one we've talked to can.
"I don't think you can say the entire industry is in a slump," Wade says.
"If so, it would be the most collective slump of all time."
"It's too early to tell how much impact the strike zone has had,"
Hunsicker says. "I think we're going to have to give it a full year to really
analyze what we've seen. It's not something you can run out there for 30 days
and then make a decision on whether it's working."
So stay tuned. And watch those scoreboards.
Miscellaneous grumblings
OK, everybody out there who thought the Phillies were geniuses for giving
Jose Mesa, Rheal Cormier and Ricky Bottalico 17 million bucks this winter,
raise your hands.
No, not you, Mrs. Cormier.
All right, that would be pretty much nobody else. But a fascinating thing
has happened to a team that took more heat for its offseason game plan than
just about anyone:
The Phillies started the week in first place. And their bullpen had the
second-best ERA in the league (2.15).
Mesa is being clocked at 95-97 mph. Bottalico has slowed down his
delivery and gotten back to 92-95. And Cormier has done what he was signed to
do – get left-handed hitters out. (They were 0-for-3 off him in the first two
weeks.)
After 11 games, the Phillies were 7-4 – and only one of those losses came
in a game where a starter handed a lead to the bullpen. So is it time for the
Phillies to say they told you so?
"In my mind, the primary reason we took some heat," Wade says, "is that
people felt we were overly aggressive in regard to the dollars and terms of
these deals – which is interesting in itself that people thought we were
overly aggressive.
"But we were coming off a 97-loss season. And I'm not sure we're the most
attractive landing spot in the United States for most of these free agents.
So we felt we had to be aggressive, because the alternative was to come back
with the same cast as last season – or worse."
Since last season's bullpen had a 5.66 ERA, featured almost nobody who
touched 90 mph and piled up 37 losses (most in baseball), that sounded like a
lousy plan. Spending a few million extra bucks (as opposed to a few hundred
million) on three upgrades, however modest, sounded like a better plan. And
so far, who can argue?
Add Art Howe to the list of potentially endangered managers. Those 1-8
homestands can do that to a guy, particularly one who asked for a multiyear
contract extension and was turned down flat.
Meanwhile, one of the most fascinating moves of the week was the Braves'
decision to bring up Marcus (Brother of Brian) Giles.
"At least they're trying something different," says one NL exec. "He might
not be quite ready. But he's a guy who'll give them energy and he'll hit the
ball out of the ballpark once in a while."
One thing we've always loved about Curt Schilling is that the brighter the
lights shine, the better he is. And his stirring duel with Kevin Brown last
week proved it.
Just take a look at Schilling's record against the best pitchers in the NL.
Versus Brown (since '97)
3-2, 3.06, 41 strikeouts in 35 1/3 IP.
Versus Greg Maddux (since '95)
4-1, 1.58, 42 K, 40 IP.
Versus Tom Glavine (since '94)
2-1, 3.10, 30 K, 29 IP.
|  | | Curt Schilling on his habit of performing in big games: "I just have a very strong desire to be recognized as a big-game pitcher." |
Schilling on why he thinks he fares so well in games like this: "I just
have a very strong desire to be recognized as a big-game pitcher, regardless
of the date of the game. I want my teammates to believe that my day is win
day, regardless of the opposing pitcher. I want my teammates to feel like a
run or two is going to be enough on a lot of days. You can't be given that kind of recognition, you have to earn it.
"Beyond being born with a love for this game, I pitch for two very simple
reasons:
1) "My teammates' respect. In 1993 in Philly, while I wasn't a part of
'Macho Row', by design and desire, every one of those guys wanted me to have
the ball in a must-win game. That's satisfaction. That respect you can't buy.
"And 2) the respect of players around the league."
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have big concerns about their rotation beyond
Schilling and Randy Johnson. After two weeks, they'd won four games those two
have started – and no games anyone else has started. Record of their Nos.
3-4-5 starters: 0-5, 11.88.
Remember all those people who thought Paul O'Neill should retire last fall?
Now what? He had one homer and five extra-base hits all last April. He has
five homers and a .612 slugging percentage this April. Amazing what a little
good health can do for a guy.
Useless information dept.
Just as we all expected, there were exactly 300 home runs thumped in the
major leagues this year before Mark McGwire hit one. The members of the I
Homered Before Big Mac Club included:
– Mike Hampton.
– Russ Johnson
– Tom Lampkin
– Tom Prince
– Deivi Cruz
– Tony Graffanino
– Benji Gil
– Paul LoDuca
– Julio Lugo
– Rod Barajas
– Craig Counsell
How about this? The Red Sox have a losing record when Pedro Martinez starts
(1-2) – but they're 8-2 when anybody else starts.
And how about this? In between Pedro-versus-Roger (Clemens) games – i.e.,
last June 14 to Saturday – Clemens had a better record (11-2) than Pedro
(10-4).
According to the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR's David Vincent: Todd Hollandsworth had himself a day Sunday. Not just
a three-homer game but a third homer in the 10th that became a game-winner
and game-ender. Vincent reports just seven other three-homer games have had
that sort of grand finale:
3-HR game with a game ender
Jack Clark 07/31/1991
Cecil Cooper 07/27/1979
Don Demeter 04/21/1959
George Kelly 06/14/1924
Hector Lopez 06/26/1958
Willie McCovey 09/17/1966
Walt Moryn 05/30/1958
Otto Velez 05/04/1980
As our friend Karl Ravech so poetically observed on Baseball Tonight, if a
record that has held up since 1918 could finally be matched Saturday, could
the Curse of the Bambino be far behind?
Of the 15 games played Saturday, 11 were one-run games. And that tied a
record that hadn't been touched since July 4, 1918.
How long ago was that? Among the winners and losers of that day, you could
find these nuggets:
– Senators 4, Yankees 3 (Walter Johnson over Ray Caldwell).
– A's 2, Red Sox 1 (Scott Perry over Carl Mays).
– White Sox 7, Tigers 6 (Eddie Cicotte over Hooks Dauss).
– Cubs 1, Cardinals 0 in both ends of a doubleheader (Lefty Tyler over Red Ames in Game 1, Claude Hendriz over Bill Doak in Game 2).
More from our It's a New Year Dept.:
Rick Reed last year: 30 starts, 0 complete games.
Rick Reed this year: 2 starts, 2 complete games.
Darren Oliver last year: 21 starts, 2 wins.
Darren Oliver this year: 3 starts, 3 wins.
Omar Vizquel last year: 156 games, 3 errors.
Omar Vizquel this year: 11 games, 2 errors.
The Phillies last April: 7-17.
The Phillies this April: 7-4.
The Braves last April: 18-6.
The Braves this April: 6-7.
The Twins vs. LHP last year: 12-25.
The Twins vs. LHP this year: 4-0.
Hey, you never know.
The Twins just exploded for their first three-homer game since last June 26
– by the powerhouse trio of Tom Prince, Luis Rivas and Christian Guzman. In
between Twins three-homer games, the Blue Jays had 14.
Funny what an uproar there was over Randy Johnson throwing 133 pitches on
Opening Day, then coming back to give up nine runs in his next start. Fact
is, it's almost a tradition for the Unit to throw 130 pitches Opening Day. Of
the five occasions since 1990 in which an Opening-Day starter threw 130 or
more, Johnson has been responsible for three of them.
Jack Morris, Toronto, April 6, 1992 – 144.
Randy Johnson, Arizona, April 4, 2000 – 133.
Randy Johnson, Arizona, April 3, 2001 – 133.
Erik Hanson, Seattle, April 9, 1991 – 131.
Randy Johnson, Seattle, March 31, 1996 – 130.
After his 133-pitch opener last year, Johnson was so drained, he came
back to twirl a 14-strikeout shutout in his next start.
It isn't every day you see the Red Sox fall behind the Yankees in extra
innings and come back to win. Last time it happened before Manny Ramirez
mugged Mariano Rivera on Friday, according to the Elias Sports Bureau: June
21, 1969, when the Red Sox scrambled back from three runs down in the 11th to
beat Ken Johnson and the Yankees, 6-5. Winning pitcher for Boston that night:
Vicente Romo.
But we probably shouldn't have been surprised – because it was Friday the
13th. And of the eight original American League franchises, according to
Elias, the Red Sox have the best record on Friday the 13ths (43-24, .642).
Next best: the Senators-Twins, at 42-27, .609. Best in either league: the
Brewers, at 18-9, .667.
John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press reports that two weeks into the season,
Tony Clark continues to do the near-impossible: His on-base percentage (.410)
is lower than his batting average (.417), thanks to two sacrifice flies (and
just one walk).
Sean Casey of the Reds already has become the only active player to collect
the first hit in the history of two different ballparks – PNC and Miller. And
he may not be through. Next new team scheduled to open a new park: the Reds
(April 2003).
We know what you're wondering: Can the Orioles become the second team in
the last half-century (strike years not included) to avoid hitting 50 homers?
Until they exploded for back-to-backers Sunday by Greg Myers and Jerry
Hairston, they'd hit one all year. But even with three in their first 12
games, they're behind the pace of Rafael Landestoy's '79 Astros, who hit 49
all year.
Another situation the Orioles need to be aware of is this: Last team to get
outhomered by the home-run champ – the '49 White Sox, whose 43 homers that
year were 11 fewer than Ralph Kiner. The Orioles trailed Luis Gonzalez by six
(9-3) through the weekend, if you're not scoring at home.
Howe Sportsdata's Josh Goldfine reports that while Rickey Henderson was
touring the Pacific Coast League this month, he faced two pitchers whose
lives started after Rickey's career started.
He batted against Cardinals prospect Bud Smith, who was born four months to
the day after Henderson made his big-league debut (on June 23, 1979). And he
faced Dodgers prospect Luke Prokopec, who was born in February 1978 – a year
and a half after Rickey's professional debut.
Finally, here's the latest update on the most unhittable pitcher in
baseball, Arizona frisbee-baller Byung-Hyun Kim. The Valley Tribune's Ed
Price reports he threw an amazing 125 pitches this year before he allowed his
first hit (Saturday in Colorado). He then allowed a Jeff Cirillo home run on
the next pitch. But his line for the season, through Sunday, is truly
mind-warping:
152 pitches, 2 hits, 31 batters faced, an unreal 4.9 pitches per batter.
"We can put our gloves on our heads when he's out there," said Mark Grace.
Trivia answer
Mike Schmidt (548, Phillies), Mickey Mantle (536, Yankees), Ted Williams (521, Red Sox), Ernie Banks (512, Cubs), Mel Ott (511, Giants), Lou Gehrig
(493, Yankees) and Stan Musial (475, Cardinals).
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each Monday.
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