Does spring training seem like a century ago now – or only half a
century? Do the winter meetings seem like they happened during the Bronze Age
– or just the '60s?
Whatever, all those offseason and preseason brainstorms from way back
then are playing themselves out for real now. So take out your scorecard and
follow along.
|
Triviality
|
|
With 471 career stolen bases, Barry Bonds is 29 steals from becoming
the only member of the 500-Homer, 500-Steal Club. Only four other
500-homer men have even stolen 200 bases. Can you name them?
(Answer at bottom.)
|
Five offseason ideas that have worked (so far)
1. MANNY: If any one human is living proof that spring training might be
more irrelevant than "Temptation Island," it's the inimitable Manny Ramirez.
Off Manny's disinterested spring (.138, 2 RBI), he'd have gotten cut by the
Solano Steelheads. Off his April (.417, 6 HR, .500 on-base percentage) , he might
be the MVP of a Red Sox team that only has a winning record when it doesn't start Pedro (2-2 with him on the mound, 11-4 without him) and replaced its
shortstop (Nomahhhhh) with a guy (Craig Grebeck) hitting .036.
2. ROCKIES PITCHERS: It's a long year. But Mike Hampton is five outs away
from two shutouts in his first four starts. Denny Neagle is 2-0, 3.27, and
has gone back-to-back starts without allowing a home run. And thanks to them,
the Rockies just threw back-to-back shutouts for the first time in franchise
history.
|  | | Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .361 in his first 19 games as a Mariner. |
3. LARRY BOWA: This guy waited 14 years for a second chance to manage after
his fiery blow-up in San Diego. But he might be the biggest reason the
Phillies are in first place. He's not into soothing egos or worrying about
tomorrow. He's into winning every single night, whatever that takes. So he's
hooked starters in the fourth inning of 2-1 games. Sunday, he gonged closer
Jose Mesa with a 2-1 count and a two-run lead in the ninth. And he paces the
dugout like a caged tiger. But it's worked. "They ought to know by now," says
coach John Vukovich, "that he's only got one gear."
4. ICHIRO: Who knew what the Mariners expected when they signed this guy?
But honorable Ichiro-san is worth every yen. If he's at .361, with a .391
on-base percentage, before he's even figured out how to order a cheeseburger,
how good could he be once he gets comfortable? "Very intelligent hitter,"
says one AL scout. "Puts the ball on the ground and runs like hell. Fastest
guy in the league. He's a 3.8, 3.9 to first base. And he dives into every
swing with his front feet. So if he doesn't hit it right at you, he'll beat
it out." Throw in that Guerrero-esque arm and star power, and whoa! Are the
Mariners 15-4 without him? You know the answer to that one.
5. CUBS PITCHERS: For $14.6 million, the Cubs would have gotten about five
months worth of Mike Hampton. Instead, it bought them Jeff Fassero, Julian
Tavarez and Jason Bere. Fassero has been the bullpen savior of the year.
Tavarez and Bere are 6-0, 2.08. And if Tom Gordon ever shows up at Wrigley,
this team will look way too brilliant.
Five offseason ideas that haven't worked (so far)
1. DAMON-HERNANDEZ-GRIEVE EXTRAVAGANZA: Hmmm. We could have sworn this
seemed like the most spectacular deal of the winter. Amazingly, all three
teams involved are in last place. Johnny Damon has hit .222 in Oakland and
has been thrown out on two of five stolen-base attempts. Ben Grieve is at
.203 in Tampa Bay, with one homer and 18 strikeouts. And Roberto Hernandez
has allowed 20 baserunners in nine innings in Kansas City. Good thing they've
all got 140 to play.
2. MIKE SIROTKA: Suppose the Blue Jays had traded their 20-game winner for a
pitcher who actually threw a pitch? Where would they be right now?
3. DEREK BELL: Suffice it to say Bell hasn't done anything to make people
rethink the popular opinion that this was the worst signing of the winter
(two years, $9 million). At last look, he was 8-for-57 (.140) with no extra
base hits and 15 punchouts.
|  | | Rick Helling's struggles (he's 1-5 with an 8.01 ERA) is one of the main reasons why Johnny Oates is no longer the Rangers' manager. |
4. TIGERS TRADE: This deal would look worse if Doug Brocail had been able to
pitch in Houston. But the Tigers' end of this trade has been big-time ugly,
at least so far. Mitch Meluskey turned off the pitching staff this spring,
then went down for the year. Roger Cedeno has hit .193, with a .270 on-base
percentage. And Chris Holt's numbers at Comerica (where he was supposed to
refind himself): 0-2, 11.74, .400 opponents batting average.
5. RANGERS PITCHING: The good news is, they're on a pace to score 1,053 runs
and hit 275 homers. But the bad news is, the umpires keep letting the other
team hit, too. That was an area the Rangers never did get around to working
on last winter. And it's killing them. They have a 6.34 team ERA. They
allowed eight runs or more in eight of their first 17 games. They've given up
27 more home runs than the Red Sox (38-11). And at this rate, they would give
up 500 more runs than the Cubs. In other words, they can't trade for Ugueth
Urbina fast enough. And Pedro, for that matter.
Miscellaneous rumblings
Hal McRae is as sharp and decent a man as any club could hire. And it's
always baffled us why he hasn't been taken more seriously as a managerial
candidate in the past – especially when you consider that he had a winning record in his only other managerial job.
It's easy to dredge up the videotape of McRae's phone-heaving tirade from
Kansas City. But ask any reporter who has ever covered him, and you're
guaranteed a soliloquy on why that tirade was way out of character for one of
the most cooperative baseball men alive.
Meanwhile, the evidence shows that early-season firings often do improve a
team's performance significantly. Of the five previous teams that canned
managers in the first 16 games of a season over the past 50 years, four of
them had winning percentages at least 100 percentage points higher than their
predecessors:
1988 Orioles
Cal Ripken Sr. 0-6, .000; Frank Robinson 54-101, 348.
1972 Padres
Preston Gomez 4-7, .364; Don Zimmer 54-88, .380.
1991 Phillies
Nick Leyva 4-9, .308; Jim Fregosi 74-75, .497.
1982 Yankees
Bob Lemon 6-8, .429; Gene Michael 44-42, .512.
1985 Yankees
Yogi Berra 6-10, .375; Billy Martin 91-54, .628.
It might be time for the Braves to have serious concerns about their
offense, because "it's early" might not suffice as an accurate explanation
anymore. They'd scored four runs or fewer in 14 consecutive games through
Sunday. And no Braves team had done that since the 1989 Braves of Andres
Thomas and Oddibe McDowell. That team hit .234 for the season, averaged 3.6
runs per game and lost 97 games.
And don't tell the Twins it's early, either. Not counting the '94 strike
year, the last team to start a season 14-3 and not make the playoffs was the
'87 Brewers. That team started 13-0 and 20-3, then lost 12 in a row.
Genealogical link: Paul Molitor played for that Brewers team; now he's a coach
for this Twins team.
If Milton Bradley doesn't go to the Mets, he might not make it through the
year in Montreal. The White Sox, Indians and Orioles also have interest.
The Cardinals expect Mark McGwire back at some point this year – theoretically, between Memorial Day and the All-Star break. But make no
mistake about it. They're not close to the same team without him.
"They still have some guys you need to be careful with," says one scout. "But
take that power out of the middle of the lineup, and they're a different
offensive team."
Last year, the Cardinals had 149 home runs in 87 games at the break after a
first half in which Big Mac played just about every day until July. Since
then (largely without him): 119 homers in 93 games. They hit 42 home runs in
their first 18 games last year. That dipped to 31 this year – a drop of 26
percent.
One of the weirdest stats of the year is that, even with Randy Johnson and
Curt Schilling around, the Diamondbacks are 25th in baseball in
starting-pitcher ERA (5.48). But they're first in most career wins on the
disabled list. Todd Stottlemyre, Bobby Witt and Mike Morgan own 415 career
wins. And Brian Anderson has won another 51. So Arizona has a total of 466
wins on the inactive roster. The Marlins have a total of 188 wins on their roster.
There's no hotter pitching name on the map right now than Houston's Wade
Miller, who rolled up three double-figure strikeout games in his first four
starts of the year. One scout calls him "a young John Smoltz. He's going to
be dominant. He just doesn't know yet how good he can be."
With a little more than a month remaining until the June draft, the early
line on the draft's upper tier seems to be centering around the two obvious
college names – Georgia Tech third baseman Mark Teixeira and USC pitcher Mark
Prior – and two high school pitchers – Gavin Floyd (from the Baltimore
suburbs) and Mike Jones (Phoenix).
UCLA pitcher Josh Karp and Middle Tennessee right-hander Dewon Brazleton can
still elevate themselves into that mix. And of course, the usual money issues
could change everything.
Here's more evidence that the baseball draft is the most imprecise science
since alchemy: In 1996, the Devil Rays gave high school phenom Matt White a
$10.2 million signing bonus – and made another high school pitcher, Travis
Phelps, their 89th-round draft pick. So of course, Phelps made it to the big
leagues before White.
When he arrived last week, he became the lowest-round pick ever to make it to
the majors. Previous lowest: Yankees infielder Scott Seabol, an
88th-rounder. Previous lowest pitcher: Danny Young, who pitched four games
for the Cubs last year (with a 21.00 ERA), a decade after the Astros made him
their 83rd-round pick.
Useless information dept.
We don't know where Barry Bonds ranks among the greatest all-around players
of modern times, but it wouldn't take long to name the other contenders. Just
that combination of 500 homers and eight Gold Gloves would eliminate a lot of
names. Here are the only other 500-homer men with more than one Gold Glove:
Willie Mays 12
Mike Schmidt 10
Bonds 8
Hank Aaron 3
Eddie Murray 3
Even the group with 500 bombs and one Gold Glove is a short one: Ernie
Banks, Mickey Mantle, Mark McGwire, Frank Robinson. (Of course, the Gold
Glove award never existed before 1957. So Babe, you're off the hook.)
Bonds' 500th marked the fifth straight game in which he'd homered. A
half-dozen other players hit their 499th and 500th homers in back-to-back
games. But before Bonds, only Frank Robinson had a streak of longer than two
games. The streakers, courtesy of the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR's David
Vincent:
Bonds 496-500 (5)
Frank Robinson 497-500 (4)
Babe Ruth 499-500 (2)
Willie Mays 499-500 (2)
Mark McGwire 499-500 (2)
Mike Schmidt 499-500 (2)
Ted Williams 499-500 (2)
On the other hand, it isn't that easy for everybody. Here are the longest
waits between No. 499 and 500:
Jimmie Foxx 17 games
Harmon Killebrew 15 games
Meanwhile, you often see guys like Bonds afflicted with "milestone
hangover." Vincent reports that it took Ernie Banks 15 games to hit his 501st
homer after hitting 500. It took Eddie Murray 14 games, Hank Aaron 12 and
Jimmie Foxx 17 over two seasons.
Only Bonds, Ruth, Mays and Mel Ott hit 501 the game after 500. And McGwire
and Harmon Killebrew hit 500 and 501 in the same game.
Finally, there's a possibility Bonds also hit the longest 500th home run
ever. It was estimated at 417 feet, but other observers think it went closer
to 450. The Tale of the Tape computers weren't up and running for the Babe.
But baseball historian Bill Jenkinson lists these as the most notable
destinations for previous 500th homers:
Mays – center-field seats in the original Astrodome configuration, a massive
poke.
Reggie Jackson – deep into the right-field terrace in the original
configuration of the Big A in Anaheim, a blast of 420 to 450 feet.
McGwire (of course) – onto the grassy knoll behind the center-field fence in
St. Louis, estimated by the Cardinals at 451 feet.
Ruth – into the street beyond Cleveland's old League Park. Which sounds good,
except the right-field fence was 290 feet from home plate.
Love that unbalanced schedule. The Red Sox haven't played the Yankees this
many times in one year since 1960 (when they matched up 22 times). And by
taking four of the first seven games, the Sox already have won more than half
as many games as they did all that season in 1960. The Red Sox won 7 of
22 that year (6 of the first 11, 1 of the last 11).
Do the Sox and Yankees play some amazing games, or what? Last weekend, the
Yankees blew an extra-inning lead to the Red Sox for the first time since
June 21, 1969. This weekend, according to Elias, the Sox coughed up an
extra-inning lead to the Yankees for the first time since Aug. 29, 1967. In
that one, the Red Sox jumped ahead, 3-2 in the 11th. But the Yankees tied it
in the bottom of the 11th on a homer by Steve Whitaker. Then the Yankees
eventually won in 20 innings, 4-3. Winning pitcher: Jim Bouton. Losing
pitcher: Darrell Brandon.
How amazing would it be for the Twins to make the playoffs after not
exactly imitating the Yankees the last few years?
Elias' Ken Hirdt reports they would be just the third team ever to get to the
postseason after eight straight losing seasons. The others: the 1967
Impossible Dream Red Sox and the 1914 Miracle Braves.
And they would be only the second team to make the playoffs after a run
of four straight 90-loss seasons. The other: the '91 Braves (who played the
last Twins playoff entry in the World Series).
More from our It's A New Year Dept.:
The Marlins last year: 32-20 in one-run games (first in baseball).
The Marlins this year: 1-6 in one-run games (worst in baseball).
The Astros last April and May: 6 saves, 9 blown saves.
The Astros this April: 5 saves, 1 blown save.
Juan Gonzalez at home in Detroit last year: 8 homers, 217 at-bats.
Juan Gonzalez at home in Cleveland this year: 5 homers, 35 at-bats.
The Reds caught those unstoppable 1893-1895 Phillies this weekend to tie
the all-time National League record for most consecutive games without being
shut out (181 in a row).
Since the last time the Reds were shut out, in the 163rd-game playoff with
the Mets in 1999 ...
The Tigers have been shut out 15 times. The Dodgers have been shut out 12
times. The Yankees have been shut out seven times. The Rockies have been shut
out eight times.
Pedro Martinez has made 11 starts in which he allowed no runs. Greg Maddux
has made nine starts in which he allowed no runs.
And the other 29 teams out there have been shut out a combined 227 times
(through Sunday).
In case you missed it, Twins reliever Bob Wells got a win last Tuesday. It
was Wells' first win since Aug. 28, 1999. In between his wins, David Wells
won 25 times, and even Kip Wells won eight times. But all's well that ends
Wells.
"Youneverknow" is the word that explains everything in baseball this year.
When the Phillies and Robert Person beat Greg Maddux on Saturday, it marked
the first time any Phillies pitcher other than Curt Schilling had outpitched
Maddux since Aug. 8, 1996, when Matt Beech beat Maddux in the first start of
his career. (After that springboard to greatness, Beech won seven of his next
53 starts.) Ironically, Maddux allowed his first earned run of the year
Saturday on a home run by a man traded for Schilling – Travis Lee.
Roberto Hernandez was supposed to make it safe to watch the ninth inning in
Kansas City. But believe it or not, the Royals' bullpen is actually off to a
worse start this year than in the previous two years. In both 1999 and 2000,
they lost six games in which they led after eight innings. That was worst in
the AL in '99, tied for the worst (with Anaheim) last year. This year,
though, the Royals have already lost three games in which they led after
eight. The other 29 teams, according to Elias, have done it six times combined.
But where's that unbalanced schedule when the Royals need it? They're 3-9
against the AL East – and 3-3 against their own division.
The Blue Jays and Mariners both won their first six series of the year.
Elias' Ken Hirdt reports that of the six teams that did that over the
previous four seasons, only one – the '98 Mets – failed to get to the
playoffs.
When Tony Gwynn and Rickey Henderson started in the San Diego outfield
Friday, they became just the fifth pair of 40-year-olds to play in the same
outfield since 1900, according to Elias. But only one of the previous
pairings resulted in both 40-somethings getting more than 100 at-bats. And
only one resulted in a visit to the postseason.
Here are the other four modern senior-citizen outfields, with number of
at-bats the two 40-year-olds got that year and where their team finished:
1945 Tigers:
Doc Cramer (541 AB) and Chuck Hostetler (44 AB).
Record: 88-65 (first).
1943 Dodgers:
Paul Waner (225 AB) and Johnny Cooney (34 AB).
Record: 81-72 (third).
1928 Phillies:
Al Nixon (64 AB) and Cy Williams (238 AB).
Record: 43-109 (last).
1928 A's:
Ty Cobb (353 AB) and Tris Speaker (191 AB).
Record: 98-55 (second).
Monday was the first anniversary of Alfonso Soriano's last walk – and the
only time he's been to the plate in the major leagues without swinging at a
pitch.
The perpetrator, back on April 23, 2000: Toronto reliever Clayton Andrews.
The fateful walk in question, if you're keeping track of historic pitch counts,
went Ball, Ball, Ball, Strike looking, Ball four.
Since then, Soriano was up to 114 straight big-league plate appearances
without a walk. And counting. So he's replaced Tony Clark as the only active
regular with a higher batting average (.293) than on-base percentage (.289).
With 84 plate walk-free appearances this year, Soriano still needs
another 10 to catch the longest streak to start last season (Shawon Dunston,
with 94). And he needs another 45 just to catch the legendary Oscar Azocar,
who was called up by the Yankees in 1990 and promptly made 129 visits to home
plate before his first walk.
Azocar went on to walk twice in 218 plate appearances that year – the worst
single-season walk ratio in Yankees history, according to the 1991 Elias
Baseball Analyst. So Soriano has a lot to aspire to. Stay tuned.
ESPN research genius Jeff Bennett reports the Red Sox have slightly
outscored their opponents this year between the second and eighth innings – 82-21.
And would you believe the Red Sox have allowed 18 fewer runs all season
(45) than the A's have allowed just to Texas in seven games (63)?
Finally, the Indians honored their streak of 455 consecutive sellouts
Sunday (by retiring the number, 455) – before a game that wasn't sold out.
List of the week
For the first time since Reggie Jackson retired, we now have more than
one active player with 500 homers. Here, courtesy of David Vincent, are all
the years in history in which a season ended with more than one active member
of the 500 Homer Club:
1945
Jimmie Foxx 534
Mel Ott 510
1967
Mickey Mantle 518
Eddie Mathews 509
Willie Mays 564
1968
Hank Aaron 510
Mickey Mantle 536
Eddie Mathews 512
Willie Mays 587
1969
Hank Aaron 554
Willie Mays 600
1970
Hank Aaron 592
Ernie Banks 509
Willie Mays 628
1971
Hank Aaron 639
Ernie Banks 512
Harmon Killebrew 515
Willie Mays 646
Frank Robinson 503
1972
Hank Aaron 673
Harmon Killebrew 541
Willie Mays 654
Frank Robinson 522
1973
Hank Aaron 713
Harmon Killebrew 546
Willie Mays 660
Frank Robinson 552
1974
Hank Aaron 733
Harmon Killebrew 559
Frank Robinson 574
1975
Hank Aaron 745
Harmon Killebrew 573
Frank Robinson 583
1976
Hank Aaron 755
Frank Robinson 586
1987
Reggie Jackson 563
Mike Schmidt 530
2001
Mark McGwire 555*
Barry Bonds 502*
* so far
Trivia answer
Willie Mays (338), Hank Aaron (240), Frank Robinson (204) and (surprise) Reginald M. Jackson (228).
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each Monday.
| |
|
