April's over.
The season isn't.
Or at least that's what teams like the A's, White Sox and Mets
are repeating to themselves every waking hour of every day right now.
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Triviality
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Joe Torre just won his 500th game as Yankees manager. Can you name the
six other active managers who have won 500 games or more with their current
clubs?
(Answer at bottom.)
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There are still five months to go. Repeat that.
There are still 135 games to go. Repeat that.
There's a lot of baseball yet to be played. Repeat that.
What these teams don't want to hear repeated, however, is a lesson we've
learned every year since we've been covering baseball: April matters -- more than anyone thinks.
Sure, it seems early. But it's not.
The A's, White Sox and Mets don't want to believe they're in trouble -- not this soon. But history shows us they are.
Why? Because April matters -- more than anyone thinks.
We recognize that crazy stuff happens in April. We see men trying to hit
wearing ear muffs. We see Chris Truby on the road to 50 homers. We see Darren
Oliver on the road to 20 wins. We know some things will change.
But some things are harder to change than others. And nothing is harder
to undo than a team burying itself in the standings in April.
How much does April matter? We looked back at every April since 1982.
It's still a little hard to believe what we found.
But believe it:
Of the 96 teams that made the playoffs during that span, only 13 (just 14
percent) had losing records.
Those 13 did include last year's Athletics (12-13) and Giants (10-13). But
at least they were close to .500. Only three of those 96 playoff teams (3
percent) were more than three games under .500 -- a neighborhood where you can
currently find this year's A's (8-17), White Sox (8-15) and Mets (9-15, going
into their game Monday).
Equally scary for the A's, White Sox and Mets is this fact: Only one of
those 96 playoff teams (1 percent) emerged from April more than 4½ games
out of a playoff spot. (That was the '87 Tigers, who were 8-12, and 9½ out.)
Of the 12 wild-card teams since 1995, not one was more than three games out
in the wild-card race. But the Mets went into Monday five out. The White Sox
were seven out. The A's were eight out.
So digest all of that and tell us April is just some crazy aberration.
"April, to me, is very big," says Padres GM Kevin Towers. "Especially
now, with the unbalanced schedule, when you're playing more games in your
division. If you go head-to-head and somebody gets hot in the division, they
can really create some space between themselves and everyone else.
"Just look at the American League West. I still believe Oakland is a hell
of a club. But when you get 10 games behind that fast, it's tough to make up."
Oakland GM Billy Beane's response to that kind of talk is, "We were seven
games out in August last year, and we still won the division." And if we were
him, we'd think that way, too, because A) it's true, and B) it makes sense.
The problem is: So does history.
And history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, tells us that only two teams ever got 10 games out as fast as the A's did and
came back to finish first:
One was the 1914 Miracle Boston Braves. Who did it nearly nine decades ago. The other was the '87 Tigers. Who got some help from an equally historic collapse by a Brewers team that started 20-3.
Those Braves and Tigers are also the only two teams in history to
play under .400 baseball for the first 30 games of a season but still finish
over .600, according to Elias. Fortunately, for Oakland, that stat doesn't
apply yet, because the A's haven't played 30 games yet. Unfortunately for the
A's, they finished April playing just .320 baseball in 25 games (8-17).
So for Oakland to get to .600 now, it would have to go 90-47 the rest of
the way. And how tough is that? It's a clip equivalent to winning 106 games
over a full season.
But let's give the A's a break and recall that no team in either league
played .600 baseball all last season. So let's assume no team will this year,
either. The A's still have a serious challenge on their hands.
The Mariners got off to such a hot start that, at 20-4, all they had to
do was play .500 baseball for the next five months to win 89 games. But
suppose they play even a little better than that? For the A's to win 92 games
right now, they would have to go 31 over .500 (84-53) from here on out.
That's a clip equivalent to winning 99 games over a full season. The A's won
91 last season.
"When you get that far behind early, you've got to play lights-out the
rest of the way," Towers said. "You can't afford another slump. I know people
don't want to say it, but when you get off to a slow start, I think people
tend to panic."
We might not use "panic" to describe the A's or White Sox
right now, but if their best hope is that the teams ahead of them are going
to jump out of a plane without a parachute, that might not be a safe
assumption, either.
If we throw out the '94 strike season, the last team to finish April 10
or more games over .500 and wind up with a losing record was the '88 Indians
(who went from 18-8 to 78-84). So while we wouldn't advise camping out for
Twins playoff tickets quite yet, their 17-6 start may not be a mirage, either.
Fact is, April almost always tells you something about a team's ability,
and it almost always foreshadows, in some way, what's to come.
We're not sure why that is. But the facts are the facts. And the facts
are that every year, we're reminded eventually that April matters -- more than
anyone thinks.
Miscellaneous rumblings
The biggest development in April, aside from the standings, is the
mysterious decline in offensive numbers. The batting average of the American
League in April was just .261 -- down an amazing 17 points from last April
(.278) and the lowest average for the AL in any full month since September,
1992 -- 45 months of baseball ago. The NL was down 5 points to .259 -- lowest
since April 1997.
The latest hot theory making the rounds among players is one espoused
last week by the Mets' Al Leiter:
"I haven't seen a difference in the strike zone, not consistently
anyway," Leiter said. "And I hear a lot of other people saying the same
thing. But I think players subliminally have (that new zone) in their minds ... and because of that, I think hitters are swinging at more pitches than
they used to."
That seems like a plausible theory -- but the numbers don't bear that out.
We looked at the average number of pitches per plate appearance, and they
were virtually identical to last year.
So we had Elias' Ken Hirdt look at pitches swung at. No difference (45.0
percent last year, 45.2 percent this year).
How about percentage of two-strike pitches swung at? Nope. Same (46.7
percent last year, 46.3 percent this year).
OK, so maybe hitters are chasing more unhittable pitches -- and therefore,
they're swinging and missing more? Sorry. That ain't it, either (8.9 percent
last year, a microscopically higher 9.2 percent this year).
So if you can figure this trend out, let us know.
One baseball man sums up the Dodgers' dilemma, as they search for a new GM,
like this:
"If they wait until the end of the year, they'd have a lot more options.
They could look at (Brian) Cashman, Billy Beane, who knows who else. But they
can't wait -- for a couple of reasons. One is, Dave Wallace doesn't want the
job all year. And the other is they've got $110 million invested in this
franchise for this year, and they've got a chance to win the division. But to
do that, they have to make some moves. And the question everyone has is: Who
makes them? If you want to make a deal with that team, who do you call? It's
a real problem."
The Dodgers are expected to start contacting candidates this week. There
are increasing indications that they're pessimistic about luring John Hart
out of Cleveland in midseason. There also are indications they've at least
done some checking on Mets assistant GM Jim Duquette.
Other names floating include Giants assistant GM Ned Colletti, Marlins
assistant Dave Littlefield, former White Sox assistant Dan Evans, Toronto's
Dave Stewart and the Mets' Omar Minaya.
Another business scene to watch is in The Bronx, where the Yankees
negotiated a fascinating multi-tiered deal with MSG Network last week that
paves the way for the Yankees to start their own cable network. The only
question is whether they can be up and running next season or in 2003. The
deal gives the Yankees 60 days to decide whether they can be ready to start
broadcasting by next year. Is this the wave of the future in baseball, or
just the wave of the future for the Yankees?
Names bouncing around the trade-rumor circuit right now: Greg Vaughn (Tampa
Bay), Peter Bergeron and Michael Barrett (Montreal), Tony Clark (Detroit),
Dante Bichette (Boston).
Several teams still have interest in Pittsburgh's John Vander Wal, but
Derek Bell's continued struggles make it tough for the Pirates to deal Vander
Wal without getting a bat back.
One NL executive says one of the best jobs being done by any pitching coach
in baseball has been Vern Ruhle's work in Philadelphia. "I've often said that
if I had a chance, I'd hire Vern Ruhle in a second," the exec says. "You look
at what he's done with that staff; man, Ricky Bottalico looks like a
completely different guy."
What's the future of baseball in Arizona? You have to wonder after the
Diamondbacks drew the two smallest crowds in franchise history last week -- in
games started by Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
Useless information dept.
Toronto rookie Luis Lopez did something Sunday you don't see a whole lot:
He was intentionally walked (by the Angels) in the first at-bat of his career. Last guy to pull that off, according to the Elias Sports Bureau's Rob
Tracy: Pirates outfielder Steve Carter, on April 16, 1989. Naturally, Carter
never was intentionally walked again in a two-year career.
It isn't every day you see an outfielder commit three errors in a game.
Before Benny Agbayani did it Sunday for the Mets, the last outfielder to hit
that dubious trifecta was Dave Cochrane of the Mariners, on June 22, 1992,
according to Elias.
This is just the second time since the infamous season of 1964 that the
Phillies will find themselves in first place on May 1. The other: 1993.
Before that, they'd reached May Day in first place just once since 1916 -- in
1953. And the Phillies' six-game win streak was their longest in any April
since 1981, according to Phillies media-relations whiz Larry Shenk.
Christian Guzman bopped his sixth triple of the year Sunday. If he can get
to 20 again, he would be the first player to join the 20-20 Club (20 triples
two years in a row) since Earl Combs in 1927-28. Guzman has actually (ahem)
doubled his triple pace since last year, when he had three triples in April.
Charles Johnson hit more home runs in April (nine) than all the Marlins'
catchers combined hit in the previous two seasons (eight).
The Yankees now have had 10 straight winning Aprils (longest streak in the
big leagues). The Royals now have had 12 straight losing Aprils (ditto). Best
April records over the last eight years: Braves (116-62) and Yankees
(115-64). Worst April record in each league over the last eight years: Tigers
(59-113) and Marlins (76-104).
The '99 Mets allowed 20 unearned runs all year. The Devil Rays have allowed 30 in April.
The walk record Rickey Henderson set last week consists of more than
35 miles worth of walks (practically the distance from Baltimore to
Washington). But Rickey made more history last week, too. By homering
Thursday, he moved within one of Ty Cobb's record for most consecutive
seasons with at least one home run. The leaders, courtesy of the Sultan
of Swat Stats, SABR'S David Vincent:
Ty Cobb 1905-28 24 seasons
Hank Aaron 1954-76 23
Carlton Fisk 1971-93 23
Rusty Staub 1963-85 23
Carl Yastrzemski 1961-83 23
Rickey Henderson 1979-01 23
Al Kaline 1953-74 22
Willie McCovey 1959-80 22
Tony Perez 1965-86 22
Brooks Robinson 1956-77 22
How bad was Juan Gonzalez in Detroit last year? The Detroit Free Press'
John Lowe reports that Gonzalez drove in one more run against the Tigers this
April (seven in six games) than he drove in for the Tigers last April (six in 17 games).
And as long as we're cranking out notes on former Tigers, Hideo Nomo just
joined a fabulous list of four other pitchers since 1986 who have made two starts in the
same month in which they allowed no more than one hit, while going at least
seven innings in both. The others, courtesy of Elias' Ken Hirdt:
Hideo Nomo, April 2001 (9-inning no-hitter, 7-inning 1-hitter)
Ron Villone, June 1999 (7-inning 1-hitter, 8-inning 1-hitter)
David Cone, Sept. 1991 (7-inning 1-hitter, 9-inning 1-hitter)
Nolan Ryan, April 1989 (8-inning 1-hitter, 9-inning 1-hitter)
Dave Stieb, Sept. 1988 (9-inning 1-hitter, 9-inning 1-hitter)
If you were one of those people questioning Arizona's signing of Mark Grace
this winter, you may have noticed that Erubiel Durazo has four pinch-hit homers
this season, while Grace has been playing every day and hit just two homers.
Durazo has no homers besides his pinch homers. And he would need just one
more to tie the record for most pinch home runs in a season by a guy who hit
no non-pinch homers.
The only three men in history to hit four or more pinch-hit homers and no
others, courtesy of David Vincent:
Joe Cronin, 1943 (5)
George Crowe, 1960 (4)
Bill Taylor, 1955 (4)
Loyal reader Jerry Beech checks in with one of the coolest notes of the
year. Saturday at Yankee Stadium, on the day Billy Crystal's sensational HBO
movie, "61*," debuted, Yankees starting pitcher Ted Lilly wore the number
(what else?) 61. Lilly also took a no-hitter into the fifth inning, only to
have it broken up by Olmedo Saenz, who was wearing the number 9 -- which, of
course, was Roger Maris' number. Almost spooky.
In case you missed it, Cubs manager Don Baylor intentionally walked Todd
Helton last Wednesday with first base occupied by Larry Walker). Jeff Cirillo
then promptly lofted what turned out to be a game-winning sacrifice fly. But
Baylor said afterward: "I wasn't going to face him again. No way."
By homering twice last Tuesday, Chipper Jones became just the fourth active
player to have a two-homer game on his birthday. The others, according to
David Vincent: Richard Hidalgo last July 2, Barry Larkin (April 28, 1994) and
Tim Raines (Sept. 16, 1996). For Chipper's future reference, only Kirk Gibson
and Duke Snider did that twice.
It was fitting that Luis Gonzalez broke the all-time April home run record
with a homer off Greg Maddux. The Valley Tribune's Ed Price reports that
Gonzalez hit the first two homers of his career off Maddux, on May 1, 1991.
And Gonzalez's six career homers off Maddux are second only to Barry Bonds
(eight) among active players. Of course, Bonds has 505 homers. Gonzalez has
hit 177.
It was another one of those Aprils for Livan Hernandez (1-4, 7.83).
Hernandez is now 3-13 lifetime in April -- and 42-29 in all the other months.
Trivia answer
Bobby Cox 1,273 (through Sunday), Tom Kelly (1,072), Felipe Alou (681),
Dusty Baker (667), Lou Piniella (651) and Johnny Oates (506). And if you guessed
Bruce Bochy, we'll give you credit. He was at 495 through Sunday.
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each Monday.
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