It's easy to look at all those empty seats in Stade Olympique and think
contraction.
It's easy to see baseball interest evaporating in Florida like a puddle
from an afternoon thunderstorm and think contraction.
But thinking contraction and actually accomplishing contraction are two
different things.
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Triviality
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Randy Johnson is now up to 156 career double-figure strikeout games --
almost as many as the two next-closest left-handed pitchers in history
combined (Sandy Koufax, who had 98, and Steve Carlton, who had 83). Only five
current pitchers who are either on the active list or the disabled list are
within 125 of the Unit's totals. Can you name them?
(Answer at bottom.)
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Is there more talk than ever among owners about putting the Expos and one
of the Florida clubs out of their misery? No doubt about it. There's so much
discussion about contraction these days, you'd think some of these owners
were 8½ months pregnant.
This isn't just a bunch of big-market chit-chat anymore. It's clear Bud Selig
and his buddies are looking at contraction more seriously than any major
sport has ever examined this subject.
Just don't bet your Devil Rays season tickets they'll ever be able to
pull this off.
Let's consider all the obstacles:
Fifty Lost Jobs
How do you explain to the players union that 50 jobs are about to disappear? Best of luck.
Think you can fix that problem by going to 27-man rosters? Think again.
Of those 50 jobs, 16 to 18 belong to players who are regulars now and
wouldn't be after contraction. Ten more belong to pitchers who would lose
their spots in somebody's starting rotation. Two more belong to closers who
wouldn't get to save 30 somewhere else.
So it's not just the jobs that are the problem. It's the loss of high-paying jobs.
For the union, it's the same issue here as the DH.
The Labor Game
To get anything like contraction accomplished, it would have to be
negotiated as part of the new labor deal. But that deal is going to be
complicated enough without adding this particular issue to the embroglio.
In a year when owners are already looking for some sort of major concession
from the union to change the current system, try to imagine any lucrative
tradeoff owners possibly could throw the players' way to make them accept a
cap-like salary system and contraction.
Uh, a free Jaguar for everyone on an opening-day roster?
The Politicos
"Forget the union," says one baseball man. "That's the least of the
worries here. The big problem is the politicians."
Think of where most of these ballparks came from that teams play in. Virtually all were built with tax dollars. Virtually all came with leases that are still being paid off.
So how does the commish explain to those local taxpayers and those local
government officials that he's changed his mind, that he doesn't need these
teams or these ballparks after all?
Think there might be a lawsuit or two coming? And how long would it take
to resolve those suits? It wouldn't be by next Opening Day. We can assure you
of that.
Congress
Remember your labor history lessons from 1994-95? Then you know the only sport with a federal antitrust exemption.
Think there might be a senator or a rep who has a problem with that
exemption if his local baseball team suddenly ceases to exist?
OK, the Expos aren't an issue here, because they play in Canada. But what
country is the other team going to come from? Not the Republic of Chad.
The Contractees
We want you to recall a quote from just last week by Expos president David
Samson, speaking on behalf of owner Jeffrey Loria: "Jeffrey," Samson warned,
"will not be contracted."
That was not another Expos attendance joke.
"You've got owners here who don't want to be contracted," says one club
official. "How do you deal with them?"
Good question. How much money would the other owners have to pay to these
people to make their teams go away? What's the magic number? A
quarter-billion? Half a billion? What would make it worth their while? And
would the number that makes it worth their while still make it worth the
other owners' while?
Good chance there's no number that could make everybody happy.
So contraction may make plenty of sense in theory. But contraction, in
reality, runs into one detour sign after another.
Can baseball find a way around some of these problems? Maybe. Can it find
a way around all of them? Not in a couple of months, it can't. And maybe not
ever.
So what should become of baseball's troubled franchises -- particularly
the Expos?
"We've got two choices," says one baseball man. "Move them or contract
them. That's it. But it's tough to contract them. So move them to Charlotte.
Move them to Northern Virginia -- somewhere that's economically viable. There
are issues with that, too. But there are always issues."
And those issues are easier to solve than the contraction issues. So if
we were going to make a prediction on the fate of the Expos, we'd bet moving
vans -- not a going-out-of-business sale.
Crunching the numbers
Loyal reader David Hallstrom recently sent us a study he did that has
direct relevance to the Florida baseball crisis and the potential plight of
the Expos.
First, he looked at attendance by all the expansion teams in history and
found that the two Florida teams had the biggest attendance drops in their
third season of any in history. The numbers for the top three:
Marlins: from 3,064,847 in Year 1 to 1,700,466 in Year 3.
Devil Rays: from 2,506,293 in Year 1 to 1,449,673 in Year 3.
Mariners: from 1,338,511 in Year 1 to 844,447 in Year 3.
Hallstrom also looked at franchises that moved to new cities and what
happened to their attendance after they settled in. While all did better
initially than in their previous locations, five teams were able to hold and
increase their attendance through their third season: Rangers (up 180.08%),
Giants (141.08%), Dodgers (122.13%), Twins (111.93%) and Milwaukee Braves
(109.82%).
But four teams lost a significant amount of attendance by their third
season -- the old Kansas City Athletics (down 64.68%), the Braves in Atlanta
(73.16%), the Orioles in Baltimore (84.95%) and the A's in Oakland (92.94%).
So simply relocating a team doesn't always solve its long-term problems.
And the markets available for relocation now aren't quite up there with
Dallas, San Francisco and Los Angeles as potential gold mines. In other
words, the Expos are a mess no matter what happens to them.
Miscellaneous rumblings
The release of Vinny Castilla was just the beginning for the Devil Rays -- a
team that has to start looking toward its next generation. Other clubs say
the Rays are the one club out there interested in dealing veterans right now,
starting with Albie Lopez. Beyond him, just about any veteran player on the
roster is available. Trouble is, all the unrest surrounding this franchise
makes it difficult for them to think too far down the road. So if they take
prospects for Lopez, Greg Vaughn, Gerald Williams or a catcher, the prospects can't be
too far away from big-league-ready.
Jay Payton's injury hasn't just hurt the Mets on the field. It has left
them with very little to trade to address their mounting problems. All their
outfielders -- even with Payton -- have combined for fewer homers and RBI (9
HR, 40 RBI) than Juan Gonzalez. And their starting rotation -- with Mike
Hampton gone and Al Leiter winless -- is last in the league in ERA (5.58),
with fewer wins (10-18) than any rotation except the Pirates'. But the Mets
don't have the ammunition now to deal for a big-time hitter or starter, even
though they've talked to San Diego about Ryan Klesko and to Detroit about
Tony Clark.
Gonzalez has had a huge impact on the Indians' success so far. But
they haven't talked to his new (old) agent, Fernando Cuza, about trying to
get him signed beyond this year.
"The biggest challenge we have (down the road) is that we have a multitude of
free agents on our club," says GM-elect Mark Shapiro. "And that makes it
extremely difficult for us to do anything like that during the season. We've
got (Kenny) Lofton, Gonzalez and (Marty) Cordova, plus (Bob) Wickman and (Steve) Karsay in our bullpen. And
right now, we don't know our revenues, and we have to plan (a budget) and be
fiscally responsible. So now is not the time."
At least initially, it appears the Cardinals will insert reliever Mike
Matthews (1-0, 1.10 so far) into Rick Ankiel's spot in the rotation. GM Walt
Jocketty will hit the road to watch their Memphis farm club play for a week,
so he can evaluate whether to recall Alan Benes or hot prospect Bud Smith.
Though Smith went 17-2 last year and is off to a good start at Memphis (4-2,
2.25), they would prefer not to push him.
The Astros continue to get bombarded with calls about Daryle Ward. But
there still are no indications he's going anywhere.
There are plenty of baseball people waiting for the Phillies to come back
to earth. But one scout who watched them last week says: "The Phillies are
for real, man. They're taking advantage of every opportunity. They're
pitching well. And I don't think they're going away. What they've done with
some of these guys on that staff is amazing. I watched Amaury Telemaco and
said, 'Wow, where'd he get this stuff?' He had a good hard-sinking fastball.
His slider was nasty. He pitched in on right-handed hitters. The pitching
coach (Vern Ruhle) has really done a great job there."
Remember, no NL East team except the Phillies has been over .500 since April
16 (when the Expos were 7-6).
But there's nothing the Phillies have feared more than a major injury, and
Mike Lieberthal was one of their most indispensable parts. Scouts have
compared him to Pudge Rodriguez in his ability to shut down the running game.
And in 33 starts, only 14 runners even attempted to steal on him -- fewest of
any regular catcher in the NL. Prospect Johnny Estrada, who will get most
of the starts with Lieberthal out, impressed the coaching staff this spring.
But he's not a two-time All-Star.
Luis Castillo and Derrek Lee both got off to atrocious starts in Florida.
And people close to them think both pressed after turning down long-term
contracts this spring.
Now that their talks with Texas have broken down and their season has blown
apart, the Expos are furiously shopping Ugueth Urbina, but won't take anybody
expensive back. Their first choice: a left-handed hitter with power. Fallback:
big-time pitching prospects.
The great Jose Rijo will throw for the Reds this week in an attempt to
revive his career, which was interrupted by four editions of Tommy John
surgery. Rijo, 36, hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 1995. But he's one
of the great humans ever to play the game. So how can you not root for a
semi-impossible comeback by a man who once summed up his team's troubles by
saying, 'We have reached the height of embarrassivity?"
Useless information dept.
Messy as A.J. Burnett's nine-walk no-hitter was, it wasn't necessarily the messiest
no-hitter ever. Most baserunners allowed in an official no-hitter since 1900:
Jim Maloney, 1965: 12 (10 BB, 1 E, 1 HBP)8
Burnett, 2001: 10 (9 BB, 1 HBP)
Chick Fraser, 1903: 9 (5 BB, 4 E)
Dock Ellis, 1970: 9 (8 BB, 1 HBP)
Johnny Vander Meer, 1938: 8 (8 BB)
Cliff Chambers, 1951: 8 (8 BB)
Bo Belinsky, 1962: 8 (5 BB, 1 E, 2 HBP)
George Culver, 1968: 8 (5 BB, 3 E)
Don Wilson, 1969: 8 (6 BB, 1 HBP, 1 E)
Jim Palmer, 1969: 8 (6 BB, 2 E)
Bill Stoneman, 1972: 8 (7 BB, 1 E)
Nolan Ryan, 1974: 8 (8 BB)
(* 10-inning game)
With seven career wins before he threw a no-hitter, Burnett missed by one
of matching Jose Jimenez for the fewest by a National League no-hit pitcher
in the last 20 years. But if we go back to 1900, 13 pitchers have had four
wins or fewer when they threw a no-hitter. Just two of those, however, have
come in the last quarter-century. The complete list, with date on win-loss record after the no-hitter, courtesy of the Elias
Sports Bureau's Randy Robles:
5/6/1953, Bobo Holloman: 1-1 (first career start)
8/11/1991, Wilson Alvarez: 1-1
9/9/1914, George A. Davis: 2-5
4/30/1922, Charlie Robertson: 2-1
4/17/1969, Bill Stoneman: 3-7
9/21/1970, Vida Blue: 3-1
9/20/1907, Nick Maddox: 3-0
4/16/1972, Burt Hooton: 3-0
5/5/1962, Bo Belinsky: 4-0
6/18/1967, Don Wilson: 5-3
5/1/1906, Johnny Lush: 5-8
4/27/1973, Steve Busby: 5-3
9/29/1983, Mike Warren: 5-3
Burnett walked nine men in his no-hitter. There are six starting
pitchers who have yet to walk nine all season: Rick Reed (1 BB, 52 2/3 IP),
Mike Mussina (4 BB, 54 IP), Brad Radke (5 BB, 61 IP), Aaron Sele (6 BB, 43
IP), Curt Schilling 97 BB, 59 1/3 IP), Greg Maddux (7 BB, 54 2/3 IP).
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List of the week
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Greg Maddux actually issued an intentional walk in the first inning
Sunday in Los Angeles, when he walked Shawn Green (who was 7-for-12 against
him). It was only the ninth time in his career Maddux intentionally walked
anybody in the first inning. Here's the complete list -- and how those games
turned out, courtesy of Elias' Randy Robles:
5/7/89: Cubs 4, Dodgers 2. Batter: Eddie Murray
6/15/89: Mets 4, Cubs 3. Batter: D. Strawberry
9/23/93: Braves 6, Expos 3. Batter: Larry Walker
8/9/95: Reds 9, Braves 2. Batter: Hal Morris
5/12/96: Phillies 6, Braves 0. Batter: Benito Santiago
7/31/98: Cards 3, Braves 2. Batter: Mark McGwire
9/18/99: Expos 4, Braves 3. Batter: Vlad Guerrero
7/4/00: Braves 7, Expos 3. Batter: Vlad Guerrero
5/13/01: Dodgers 3, Braves 1. Batter: Shawn Green
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Then there's Randy Johnson, who struck out 20 in one game. Among the
starters who haven't struck out 20 all season: James Baldwin (6 K, 32 IP),
Steve Parris (7 K, 25 2/3 IP), Shane Reynolds 914 K, 27 2/3 IP), Pete
Harnisch (17 K, 35 1/3 IP), C.C. Sabathia (16 K, 32 1/3 IP), Kirk Rueter (17
K, 41 2/3 IP), Frank Castillo (18 K, 35 IP) and Osvaldo Fernandez (18 K, 41
1/3 IP). Ironically, Fernandez, Rueter and Sabathia all have as many wins as
Johnson -- four.
There may be no better note this week than this contribution from Ed Price,
Diamondbacks beat man for the East Valley Tribune. There were four men in
uniform for Johnson's 20-strikeout game who also were in uniform for one of
the three other 20-strikeout games:
Arizona's Mark Grace played first for the Cubs when Kerry Wood struck out 20
in 1998. Arizona's Mike Morgan was a pitcher for the '86 Mariners, who were
struck out 20 times by Roger Clemens. Reds coach Ron Oester was a coach on
the '96 Tigers, Clemens' second 20-K victims. And the second-base umpire at
Johnson's game, Tim Welke, worked first base during Clemens' game in '86.
Speaking of men who umpired 20-strikeout games, what were the odds of a
20-strikeout game occurring in the same week that two umpires who were once
behind the plate for 20-strikeout games were behind the plate again in games
pitched by members of that 20-K Club?
ESPN umpiring aficionado Judson Burch noticed that Tim McClelland, who worked
the plate in Clemens' second 20-punchout game, had the plate for Clemens'
game Wednesday against the Twins. And Jerry Meals, who worked Wood's 20-whiff
game, was behind the plate for the Big Unit on Sunday against the Phillies.
Eerie.
Charles Johnson was almost as historic a figure in Burnett's no-hitter as
the guy who threw it -- because he became the 10th catcher in history to
catch three no-hitters. (No one ever has caught four, unless you count a 1914
game caught by the White Sox' Ray Schalk in which the no-hitter was broken up in
the 10th inning.)
Johnson also caught Burnett's no-hitter and hit a grand slam the next day.
The Elias Sports Bureau's Randy Robles reports this was only the fourth time
in the last 20 years -- a span including 37 individual no-hitters -- when a
player caught a no-hitter one game and homered in the next. And two of those
homers came from Johnson, who also went deep the day after Al Leiter's
no-hitter in 1996.
The others on this list: Mike Stanley caught a Nolan Ryan no-hitter on May 1,
1991 and homered the next game, and Ron Karkovice caught Wilson Alvarez's
no-hitter on Aug. 11, 1991, then worked on his trot the next day.
But then Johnson did more than just hold his glove out there during those
no-hitters, too. The Spartanburg (S.C.) Herald Journal's Mike McCombs reports
that Johnson now has caught three no-hitters -- and driven in seven runs in
those games (a three-run homer during Leiter's no-hitter, a two-run homer
during Kevin Brown's no-hitter in 1997 and a two-run double in Burnett's
no-hitter).
Former Marlins publicity genius Chuck Pool checks in to point out that two
of the Marlins' three no-hitters -- Leiter's and Burnett's -- have come on
Mother's Day Eve.
Pool also reports that the Marlins' three no-hitters in nine seasons on
earth are not a record. The Houston Colt 45s-turned-Astros pitched three in
six seasons and four in their first eight.
This game also reminded us that Burnett's victims, the Padres, have never
thrown a no-hitter themselves. Neither have the Mets. But this was the fourth
time someone else threw a no-hitter against the Padres (Dock Ellis, Phil
Niekro and a combined no-hitter by Atlanta). The Mets have been no-hit six
times (by Sandy Koufax, Jim Bunning, Bob Moose, Bill Stoneman, Ed Halicki and
Darryl Kile).
Burnett also makes 13 pitchers who either have thrown a no-hitter before
they joined the Mets or after they left the Mets. That list, courtesy of
loyal reader Jerry Beech, a Mets beat man for e-sportsnation.com:
Pitched no-hitter before joining the Mets
Dock Ellis
Dean Chance
John Candelaria
Bret Saberhagen
Kenny Rogers
Al Leiter
Hideo Nomo
Pitched no-hitter after leaving the Mets
Nolan Ryan (7 times)
Tom Seaver
Mike Scott
Dwight Gooden
David Cone
Hideo Nomo
A.J. Burnett
Before we get off the subject of 20-strikeout games, one of the most
amazing parts of Johnson's performance is that the Reds normally are tough to
strike out. They struck out just three times the day before the 20-strikeout
game and only three times the day after. Here's how that compares with the
other 20-whiffathons, courtesy of Elias' Rob Tracy:
1962 Orioles
Game before Tom Cheney struck out 21: 11
Game after: 3
1986 Mariners
Game before Clemens: 12
Game after: 6
1996 Tigers
Game before Clemens: 13
Game after: 9
1998 Astros
Game before Wood: 6
Game after: 11
We don't know much about Cheney's game. But we do know Johnson's
ball-strike ratio (92 strikes, only 32 balls) was the best ever during a
20-strikeout game since. Here are the others, courtesy of SABR's Joe Dittmar:
Johnson: 124-92
Wood: 122-84
Clemens96: 151-101
Clemens86: 138-97
Cheney: 228-?
This isn't easy, but Cardinals pitcher Matt Morris is second in the league
in ERA, even though he gave up 10 runs in one game, back in his first start in
Colorado. Only six were earned, but Elias could find just two other pitchers
since 1990 to give up 10 runs in any game and still finish in the top five in
their league in ERA that year: Randy Johnson in 1994, Mike
Mussina in 1999.
How scary are the Indians? In their 10-game winning streak which ended last
week, they scored 86 runs. Only one team in the last 30 years has scored more
runs while winning 10 in a row -- the 1979 Angels (88).
The Indians also scored at least seven runs in 10 straight games. No one
has had a longer streak than that since the '30s. The only three teams since
1900 to score seven or more in 11 straight games, according to Elias: the '38
Yankees, '36 Tigers and 1900 Phillies.
Gary Sheffield now has hit a game-winning home run in three 1-0 games this
year. According to Elias, he's the first man in history to do win a 1-0 game
with a homer three times in the same season.
Sunday was a huge day in the Last Guy To Get A Hit competition. The two
remaining contenders -- Florida's Lyle Mouton and Seattle's Charles Gipson --
both got a start. But only Gipson got a hit. So that leaves Mouton (0-for-12)
as our winner, once he performs the minor technicality of getting his first
hit.
Curt Schilling had trailed in only a half-inning all season -- until he was
behind wire-to-wire Friday in his game against the Phillies.
You sure can't say Pedro Martinez is a slow starter. Of the last five
seasons, he's gotten off to a 5-0 start in four of them. And the year he
didn't (1999), he started 11-1.
No ballpark in history ever was the scene of two three-homer games in its
first six weeks of life before Geoff Jenkins and Jeromy Burnitz helped Miller
Park pull off that feat this year. The Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR's David
Vincent reports the only other stadium in history to host two three-homer
games in its first season was Toronto's late, not-so-great Exhibition Stadium
(by John Mayberry on June 1, 1977, and Cliff Johnson on June 30, 1977).
It took 11 years for the Brewers' previous home, County Stadium, to be the
site of its first two three-homer games (by Willie Mays, in year nine of
stadium life, and by Willie McCovey, in year 12).
Who says the Devil Rays aren't dangerous? Their pitching staff is already
up to 29 hit batters this year -- including six in two games at one point last
week. Barring a last-minute peace pact, they'll be the first team ever to
lead the American League in plunkings four straight seasons.
In the Pirates' four-game sweep by the Cardinals last week, the most hits
the Pirates got in any game was five. Last team to get swept in a four-game
series and never get more than five hits: the 1992 Giants, in a four-gamer in
Los Angeles that ended with a Kevin Gross no-hitter.
Many years back, when our hero Larry Andersen kicked off his season by
getting hits in his first two at-bats, he announced he was "hitting 2.000"
for the first time in his career. Well, Cardinals pitcher Gene Stechschulte
is also 2-for-2 this year. So we did some research on the men who have hit
2.000 or better in a season:
Players who have finished 2-for-2 in any season since 1990:
1992: Kip Gross
1995: Eric Owens
1998: Doug Johns (AL pitcher)
1998: Mike Magnante
1998: Tony Saunders (AL pitcher)
The only 4.000 hitter in history: John Hale, 4-for-4 for the 1974
Dodgers. The only three 3.000 hitters: Sparky Lyle in 1971, John Paciorek in
1963 and Jim Brideweser 1953. (We bet he drank a few Bridewesers to
celebrate, too.)
Anaheim's Al Levine did something Thursday that has been done by only three
other pitchers since 1990: He got the last out for his team in relief one
game, then started the next day. The others to do this, courtesy of Elias'
Randy Robles:
Aug. 15-16, 2000 Ismael Valdes, Dodgers
July 26-27, 2000 Steve Sparks, Tigers
June 6-7, 1991 Kenny Rogers, Rangers
Down in farm land, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Red Barons may have set a
record for most managers in one week. Because Phillies coach John Vukovich
had to take a leave of absence for surgery, the Red Barons had four managers
in seven days. Manager Marc Bombard's last day was last Saturday. Then the
Phillies rotated minor-league personnel, and Jerry Martin managed the next
two days, Bill Dancy for three and Don Long the next.
Trivia answer
Roger Clemens (96), Pedro Martinez (74), David Cone (59), Curt Schilling
(53) and John Smoltz (35). The only other active left-hander who even has more
than 15 is Chuck Finley (30).
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each Monday.
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