Just think back now to what we all thought we knew as the palm trees flapped in the spring-training breeze.
That the White Sox and Mets were contenders? That the Twins and Phillies had no prayer?
That Albert Pujols was heading for Double-A? That the Cardinals couldn't possibly win without Big Mac?
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Triviality
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Sammy Sosa just became the eighth active player with at least 400 career homers. Can you name the two active 400-homer men who have never had a 40-homer season?
(Answer at bottom.)
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How ridiculous all those spring-training assumptions seem now, huh? Which is why they play the games, of course. And they've now played enough of them that we can safely present our list of ...
Five Things We Didn't Know On April 1
1. Ichiro might break DiMaggio's record
We never thought we'd see a 56-game hitting streak again until we laid eyes on the astonishing Ichiro Suzuki.
Check out his hit chart on this web site some time. Look at all the red dots (ground balls) and black dots (line drives). Look how widely they're scattered over the baseball map. No wonder his 0-fers (all three of them) seem like flukes.
"If anybody could break that record," says one NL scout, "it's going to be him. He's just an electric guy -- and defensively as well as offensively."
Over the first 40 games of his stateside career, Ichiro hit .371. Tony Gwynn hit .267. Mike Piazza hit .257. Edgar Martinez batted .278. Derek Jeter was at .256.
Of the five active hitters who began the season as .320 lifetime hitters with 3,000 or more career at-bats, only Frank Thomas (.312) was even over .300 after his first 40 games in the major leagues. And Ichiro was at .371. We recognize that in terms of experience and age, he's not your typical rookie. But theoretically, he at least should have been dragged down by some serious culture shock. Guess not, huh?
In his first 40 games on our side of the big ocean, Ichiro got a hit in 38 of them. Of that group above we just looked at, only one other man was within 10. And that, too, was Thomas, who hit in 29 of his first 40 games, according to the Elias Sports Bureau's Kevin Hines.
Rest of the group: Gwynn 28 of his first 40. Piazza 28 of his first 40. Jeter 25 of his first 40. And Martinez only 22 of his first 40.
Only Gwynn had one 15-game hitting streak that early in his career. Ichiro had two.
We could go on. But you get the picture. Ichiro-mania. We've got it.
2. Stars are overrated
OK, who among us thought that the Mariners could be this good without A-Rod, Junior and the Unit? Unless your last name is Gillick or Piniella, you're lying.
And who among us thought the Indians would be leading the American League in batting average -- by 22 points -- without Manny Ramirez? Unless you're a close personal relative of John Hart, Mark Shapiro or possibly Juan Gonzalez, you're lying.
And who among us thought the Cardinals not only could be in first place without that Mark McGwire guy -- but be within one of the league lead in homers, in a season in which Big Mac has worked his trot exactly once? If you did, we don't care what your last name is. You're lying about that, too. Or you've been wearing red for way too many days in a row.
What we've learned, maybe more than any other lesson this year, is that you don't need stars to win. Of the 15 highest-paid position players this year, two of them are in first place right now.
One is Manny Ramirez, who has earned his money and his place in the standings. The other is Shawn Green, a fine player but a guy who probably shouldn't be in that salary group to begin with.
So what's the moral of that story?
One AL executive looks at his league and says: "Seattle is the ultimate proof of the viability of a sustained winning season through a club planned with balance -- instead of a club planned under the pressure of marketing forces to sign superstar players to disproportionate contracts. All those contracts do is hobble your chances to build a championship team around them."
Now will all his fellow executives remember that next winter?
3. The Twins and Phillies aren't going away
What do the Twins and Phillies have in common, other than the fact that most people would have predicted two months ago that they were more likely to lose 90 games than win 90?
Very simple common thread. Both usually start each game with every player on the field 30 or younger. But both also start teams just about every night featuring young guys who have played a lot of baseball in the major leagues.
"This," said one NL executive, "is their reward for playing those guys through the bad times those last couple of years."
Exactly. An AL front-office man says of the Twins: "Their foundation has been forged through the luxury of sticking with young players through extended adversity -- something first-division clubs can rarely afford to do. The result is players who have a lot of experience at a very early age and believe in themselves."
Both teams also have had amazingly good starting pitching so far. (The Twins are second in the league in ERA; the Phillies are fifth.) Both teams catch the ball. (The Phillies have committed the fewest errors in baseball -- 20. And the Twins are a walking highlight video.)
So they're in every game. They've won most of the close ones -- the Twins are 8-1 in one-run games, the Phillies 11-4. And that's allowed them to generate a stunning amount of energy and momentum from a core group that is younger and hungrier than almost everyone they play. Not a bad formula -- to stay in the race, if not win it.
4. Manny Ramirez is the best hitter in baseball
Was it only spring training when we really wondered whether Manny would be able to survive in the crazed atmosphere of Fenway Park, after years of seclusion in the Indians' fallout shelter?
OK, never mind.
Is there any category he doesn't lead the league in? (Among the dishes on his numerical smorgasbord: .406, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .764 slugging, .456 average with men in scoring position, .571 scoring position with two outs.)
And maybe our favorite Manny stat is this: Take away his 45 strikeouts, and he's hitting .558 when he makes contact.
But now that we've said all that, does that mean he was worth the money? For this year, yes. For eight years? Get back to us in 2009.
"Manny has been the best pure hitter in baseball for a few seasons," said one AL executive. "He is still far from being the best player, though. Defense, leadership, baserunning and intangibles make me still question a contract of this length with him."
This is not a lesson we've learned in the last seven weeks. But all these long-long-lonnnngggg-term free-agent contracts -- good as Ramirez, A-Rod, Mike Hampton and Mike Mussina might look right now -- have to be judged over the long haul. If you're paying $20 million a year to a guy who gets 77 at-bats a season, were the cheap thrills in year one really worth it?
5. In baseball, the surprises never stop
One thing we've been reminded of, more vividly than ever, these last seven weeks, is that baseball's greatest charm is its ability to surprise us -- every single year.
Only Midwest League junkies had heard of Albert Pujols two months ago. Now only a broken leg could stop him from being the NL rookie of the year.
Marty Cordova was supposed to be a long shot even to make the team in Cleveland. But he lost 20 pounds of bulk, had LASIK eye surgery, jumped through every hoop that was placed in front of him. And now he's hitting .377, with more RBI than Jason Giambi or Mike Sweeney.
The Olympic team last fall was supposed to have been made up of not-ready-for-prime-time players. But tell that to Doug Mientkiewicz, Ben Sheets, Roy Oswalt, Todd Williams and Mike Kinkade. "Those guys," said one NL scout, "probably faced more pressure over there than in any big-league game except the playoffs."
Did anybody figure the Brewers' rotation would have more quality starts (24) than the Braves' rotation (23)?
Or that Sammy Sosa would be leading the league in walks?
Did we know the White Sox magic carpet would crash this fast? A year after almost scoring 1,000 runs, the only AL team they've outscored is Tampa Bay.
Who figured the Mets and A's would be 10 games out in the loss column by May 20?
Who thought A-Rod could be this far behind the Mariners, through no fault of his own?
Yup, those surprises keep on coming. Which is why every year about this time, we're always being reminded how little we really know about the most unpredictable sport on earth.
Miscellaneous rumblings
After Steve Trachsel gave up four home runs in one inning for the Mets last Thursday, a livid Bobby Valentine called Trachsel's performance "unaccceptable" and made pointed remarks about Trachsel not following "the plan he was given," from the first pitch on.
You could take that a couple of ways. But sources say that plan included instructions for Trachsel to drill Rickey Henderson with the first pitch of the night -- and if not with the first pitch, with the second pitch. Instead, the first pitch was a strike. And Trachsel then went on to walk Rickey, who wasn't exactly the Mets' favorite visiting player of the year.
Only two weeks before the draft, and the top of the first round remains as muddled as ever.
The Twins are said to be trying to do a pre-draft deal with the No. 1 overall pick. Their first choice would be USC pitcher Mark Prior (who will be handled by Tony Gwynn's agent, John Boggs). But the rest of their mix is believed to include local high school sensation Joe Mauer, Maryland high school fireballer Gavin Floyd and Middle Tennessee State pitcher Dewon Brazelton.
The Cubs then would take Prior if he's still there, or Georgia Tech switch-hitting bomber Mark Teixeira.
The Devil Rays, who pick third, also remain a question because of their muddled financial picture. So even if Prior or Teixeira were still on the board, they might have to bypass them for someone more signable (i.e., Floyd, Brazelton or UCLA pitcher Josh Karp).
That would leave the Phillies at No. 4. And they've been dropping hints they might take Teixeira if he's available, even though it would mean taking a high-profile, big-buck Scott Boras client for the first time since the J.D. Drew fiasco in '97. Since the Phillies aren't sure if they can lock up Scott Rolen long-term, third baseman Teixeira would be a perfect fit, negotiating thrills notwithstanding. The Phillies would seem to prefer a college player, but if Prior and Teixeira are gone, scouting director Mike Arbuckle's history suggests he would take a high-ceiling high school player over Brazelton or Karp.
At least the annual guess-the-agent game in the draft has started to clear up, now that Prior apparently has chosen Boggs. Floyd and Mauer are expected to be represented by Ron Shapiro and Michael Maas. Brazelton reportedly will use Scott Sanderson and Mike Moye. And Karp will go with Bo McKinnis. So Boras' highest-profile client will be Teixeira, but clubs still haven't gotten an indication yet of how hard a line Boras will take.
In the meantime, scouting directors had their annual pre-draft negotiating meeting last Monday in Charlotte with an MLB delegation that included Sandy Alderson and Roy Krasick of baseball operations, plus general counsel Frank Coonelly.
The theme of the day, of course, was to keep toeing the line, after a 2000 draft in which signing bonuses for first-round picks rose just 3 percent. The down side of that, says one baseball official, is twofold: 1) "The bonuses were only down at the top end of the first round. Late in the first round, in the sandwich picks and in the second round, they shot right back up again." And 2) "The scouting directors aren't the problem. Until they can convince the owners to say no, they haven't accomplished anything."
Draft prospect on the rise over the last couple of weeks: Florida high school pitcher Alan Horne. One scouting report: "Climbing over a lot of guys on the list. Up to 93-94 with his fastball. Plus curve. Pretty good command for a high school kid. Fairly polished for a high school pitcher. Stuff not a lot different from Floyd. Floyd's just bigger and stronger."
Vinny Castilla probably would have chosen the Cubs over the Astros if he hadn't been told by the Cubs that they'd like to work him into their first-base mix and that the third-base job was Bill Mueller's when he came back.
Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker had initially said he had no interest in Castilla, but that changed once the Astros didn't have to worry about assuming Castilla's contract. And Houston felt Chris Truby was really struggling -- as much mentally as physically. Naturally, Castilla got three extra-base hits in his first game as an Astro. He never had three extra-base hits in any game he played for the Devil Rays.
Despite claims by the White Sox that they're not ready to deal their veterans, other clubs already are gearing up their scouting work on the Sox in anticipation that they'll be trading David Wells, James Baldwin and others. "The one guy they could get a lot for," said one front-office man, "is Magglio Ordonez. But he's one guy they don't want to move."
The mess in Tampa Bay has gotten beyond nightmarish. After that 18-2 wipeout by the Tigers on Friday, new manager Hal McRae called his players "very unprofessional." And if you know McRae, the ultimate professional, that's the harshest assessment he could give of anybody.
"Normally on teams like this," said one AL scout, "you see one guy you like. I don't like anybody on this team. There's not one player I'd want to deal for."
Oh, Greg Vaughn and Albie Lopez still have value. But there are questions about whether Fred McGriff would waive his no-trade to play away from his Tampa home. And Wilson Alvarez almost certainly wouldn't, even if somebody did want him.
How bad has this team been so far? After watching that 18-2 game Friday, one scout said he was "embarrassed to be a part of major-league baseball." Phew.
Texas has joined Tampa Bay among clubs stepping up its efforts to deal players now. Rick Helling is now out there to be had. And the entire bullpen except Jeff Zimmerman is available.
"I feel sorry for Doug Melvin," said one NL club official. "I know this isn't what he wanted. He knew the problems there. He knew they had to address the pitching. When we talked last winter, he was looking for pitching, not a shortstop. Now he's in a situation where he almost just has to change the bodies on that staff."
One pitcher out there who might be able to help somebody is Paul Byrd, the one-time All-Star coming off surgery and currently pitching well in triple-A (35 K in 37 IP, .239 opposition batting average). Byrd has been saying the Phillies promised him that if he wasn't back in the big leagues by June, they would allow him to find a job elsewhere. The Phillies are now saying there's nothing in writing. But with their big-league rotation pitching well, they clearly would move Byrd without looking for a lot in return. Stay tuned.
The Randy Johnson record-book controversy might be one of the most overblown stories of modern times. Anyone with a copy of the Elias Sports Bureau's official record book could find numerous instances of feat's like the Unit's that are specially annotated to explain the circumstances.
Every game in which a pitcher allowed no hits in extra innings but then gave one up in extra innings is listed exactly that way -- with an explanation of how many perfect or hitless innings the pitcher pitched and when the first hit was allowed. So there was -- and is -- no reason not to handle Johnson's 20-strikeout game the same way. Elias has taken a beating on this issue far beyond all reason.
Useless information department
Randy Johnson's start Friday in Chicago was one of his most amazing ever -- not because of how many Cubs he struck out (seven in five innings) but because the guy who relieved him, Byung-Hyun Kim, struck out as many as he did (seven in three innings).
The Elias Sports Bureau's Randy Robles reports this was only the fourth time in Johnson's career when he started a game and won it, yet had a reliever strike out as many as he did. And never had that happened in a game in which he whiffed more than four. The others:
DATE JOHNSON IP-K RELIEVER IP-K
8/30/89 6.2-2 K Mike Jackson 2.1-4 K
5/15/94 5.2-3 K Bill Risley 1.1-3 K
7/4/97 7.0-4 K Scott Sanders 2.0-4 K
5/18/01 5.0-7 K Byung-Hyun Kim 3.0-7 K
Sammy Sosa went from 200 career homers to 400 in a ridiculous 3 years, 292 days -- the fastest journey from 200 to 400 ever. The only previous man to hit his 400th homer as a Cub, Ernie Banks, took more than nine years to accelerate from 200 to 400. The five fastest ever behind Sosa, courtesy of Randy Robles:
Junior Griffey, 3 years, 324 days
Babe Ruth, 4 years, 113 days
Rafael Palmeiro, 4 years, 134 days
Jimmie Foxx, 4 years, 347 days
Mike Schmidt, 5 years, 2 days
Is there a more stupendous doubles machine than Mike Sweeney? At one point last week, he'd thumped 22 doubles in 25 games. Since 1975, according to Elias, no other player has even hit 20 in any 25-game span.
The Devil Rays are up to 18 games already in which they've allowed eight runs or more. (Even the Rangers have only done that 15 times.) That puts the Rays on a pace to give up eight-plus 68 times this season. The record: 70, by the infamous 1930 Phillies.
The Twins haven't lost two in a row since the fourth and fifth games of the season -- a streak of 37 games. That's the most in the history not just of the Twins, but of the entire Twins-Senators franchise. Ossie Bluege and the Senators of 1924 and 25 had two streaks of 34 in a row -- for a record that held up for three-quarters of a century.
Poor Bobby Jones is 2-5 this year even though his ERA is 2.80. Since 1990, according to Randy Robles, only one pitcher has had a season of 15 decisions or more in which his ERA was that low and his record was that bad -- Jim Abbott (7-15, 2.77 for the '92 Angels). And that was in the pre-rocketball era.
We know now that Barry Bonds and Geoff Jenkins don't mind working weekends. They've each hit three homers on a Saturday this season, then come back the next day and hit two more. And we've never had a season in which two players had a three-homer game and a two-homer game in back-to-back games.
The closest was 1995, when McGwire and Albert Belle both had consecutive games of two and three, but never the other way around.
More great Bonds trivia, courtesy of the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR'S David Vincent:
He's the second player ever to hit his 500th homer and have a three-homer game in the same season. The other: Mike Schmidt in 1987.
He's the fifth player to have a three-homer game at any point after hitting his 500th homer. The others: Schmidt, Babe Ruth (hit three for the Boston Braves shortly before his retirement), Reggie Jackson (500th in '84, three-homer game in '86) and Mark McGwire (1999-2000).
And Bonds is the first man to hit three homers in a game against the Braves since they became The Braves (i.e., the last 10 years). Last to do it against them before Barry: Tim Wallach, on May 4, 1987.
Last year, Devon White hit four home runs all season. This month, he has hit three grand slams in 10 days. The Sultan reports that White joins this esteemed group of boppers who hit three slams in 10 days:
Batter Start Date Days HRS PrevYr
Jeff Burroughs 7/26/1973 10 1
Lou Gehrig 8/29/1931 3 41
Jim Northrup 6/24/1968 5 10
Larry Parrish 7/4/1982 6 8
Shane Spencer 9/18/1998 9 0
You might think Rockies pitchers have hit far more home runs a mile above sea level than they have on the road. But Mike Hampton's road homer in Florida on Sunday narrowed that closer-than-expected race to 10 at home, seven on planet earth in franchise history.
Finally, here's the Transaction of the Week, from the never-dull Atlantic League:
ATLANTIC CITY SURF-- Activated LHP Mitch Williams.
And in his debut Sunday ... the Wild Thing pinch-hit (and walked).
Trivia answer
Fred McGriff and Cal Ripken.
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each Monday.
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