The Cleveland Indians lost their second 1-0 game of the year Sunday. Before this season, they hadn't lost a 1-0 game since July 15, 1998.
Eight teams currently have staff ERAs under 4.00. Last year, no teams had ERAs that started with a "3."
Last year, if you don't count the mile-high Rockies, five clubs had team batting averages of .280 or higher. This year, if you toss out the Rockies, only two teams are hitting .280 or higher.
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Strike zone ramifications
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American League |
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Category
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2000
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2001
|
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Average
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.276
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.266
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On-base pct.
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.349
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.334
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Slugging pct.
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.443
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.426
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HR/game
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2.37
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2.18
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BB/game
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7.5
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6.5
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SO/game
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12.4
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12.9
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National League |
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Category
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2000
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2001
|
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Average
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.266
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.261
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On-base pct.
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.342
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.332
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Slugging pct.
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.432
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.427
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HR/game
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2.32
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2.35
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BB/game
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7.5
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6.7
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SO/game
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13.4
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14,0
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So what are we telling you? We're telling you this: It's actually possible to go to the ballpark this year and not have an NBA playoff score break out.
Oh, it isn't 1968 again, when Carl Yastzremski won the AL batting crown with a .301 average and both leagues had an average ERA under 3.00. It isn't even 1988, when only two NL teams had an ERA over 4.00. But offensive numbers ain't what they used to be. Let's take a look:
The batting average of the American League has dropped 10 points -- from .276 to .266.
The National League average is down five points -- from .266 to .261.
The AL slugging percentage is down 17 points (.443 to .426), the NL's down five points (.432 to .427).
At our current rate, there will be 1,605 fewer runs scored this season than last.
At this rate, there will be 1,633 fewer hits this season than last.
Walks would drop by just over 2,000 at this pace.
Strikeouts would be up by 1,340.
Home runs, at the current pace, would actually increase in the National League (by about 50) but would be down slightly overall (by 170).
We've already had 18 1-0 games -- which projects to 43 for the season. There were 31 last season.
And at this rate, we'd see a total of 243 shutouts -- which would be 39 more than last season.
Now let's put all this in perspective. We have not reverted to the dead-ball era here.
The home-run rate is still equal to what it was in 1999 -- which was the second-highest in history. Our rate of runs scored is still about the same as it was in 1998 -- and that was one of the five highest-scoring seasons ever. Basically, we're talking about only two fewer hits and two fewer runs by each team per week.
So when we say offensive numbers are down, we aren't saying it's time to launch an investigation, move in the fences and liven up the baseballs. But still, it's clear that something is going on this year that has made it possible to pitch again.
The big question, though, is whether that something is the strike zone.
Over the last week, we've surveyed hitters, pitchers, managers, scouts and front-office people. And it's astounding how much debate there is over the impact of this strike zone.
Here's a summary of what we've found:
Hitters and pitchers both told us they think the strike zone actually has shrunk since spring training: "The first couple of weeks, the zone was definitely a little different than in the past," says Orioles first baseman David Segui. "Now, the veteran guys are starting to drift back to the 'normal' zone. You can tell some of them are still trying to stick to the expanded zone. But most of them are back to the old zone."
Some players think there was never any significant change: "I think it's a bunch of garbage," says one National League starter. "I haven't seen the strike zone expanded, day-in, day-out. To me, it's the same garbage. Certain umpires are hitters' umpires. Certain umpires are pitchers' umpires. It's the same old stuff, the same give-and-take. So I don't know why hitting's down. I really don't think it's the strike zone."
We found hitters and club officials who complained that strikes continue to be called three to six inches off the corners -- which wasn't supposed to happen: "The hitters are still having to worry about the pitch off the plate, two or three inches outside, and having to worry about the high strike," says one NL executive. "And I feel that is the main cause for the drop in batting averages and run production."
Several pitchers grumbled that they can get a high strike called for strike one, but can't get the same pitch for strike three: "Umpires can take the minimal heat for the strike-one call up there," says one prominent starter, "but they refuse to get hammered for calling it strike three."
Across the board, people we surveyed felt that at the very least, hitters were confused about the strike zone -- and that has helped the pitchers more than anything: "I think you see hitters swinging at pitches they wouldn't normally swing at," Segui says. "If it's 2-2, or 3-2, you've got to expand your zone four, five inches, because you don't want to get called out. I know my strikeouts are twice as high." And Phillies scout Gordon Lakey adds: "It's not so much the pitches that are called. It's the pitches it's forced hitters to swing at. I've seen a lot more first-ball hitting."
The other constant theme was that curveball pitchers have been helped most: "The guys it's helped the most are the guys with the big curveballs, like Aaron Sele, because they've been calling that pitch more than they did in the past," Lakey says. "I think the guys with the four-seam riding fastball have also been helped. And the guys it's hurt are the sinkerball guys who nibble."
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Triviality
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Barry Bonds is the only active player with more than 400 career homers and 400 career steals. But two current players are in the 250-250 Club (250 HR and 250 SB). Can you name them?
(Answer below)
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If you sift through all of these varying opinions, it's hard to deny that the new strike zone has left its imprint. It may not have been in exactly the way baseball intended, because it clearly hasn't been called in real life the way it looked on the drawing board.
It may not even have had an impact every night -- because it's been so inconsistent, says one AL executive, that "that lack of a nightly standard makes the change lack its intended impact on a nightly basis."
But if it's affecting hitters' psyches, if it's making them more aggressive, then that alone has changed the game.
"Even after all this time, everyone is still searching for what the strike zone really is -- pitchers, hitters, umpires, everybody," says one manager. "What I find is that each umpire still has his own individual strike zone. So as a hitter, you've still got to do what hitters have done since Babe Ruth played -- and that's figure out what this umpire thinks are strikes."
The bottom line, then, is that's still a work in progress. And considering what baseball was trying to accomplish, why would anyone have expected otherwise?
Rolen situation heats up Philly
Mike Schmidt once said there must be something in the cheesesteaks that makes Philadelphians look so hard to find dark clouds on sunny days. And now Schmidt's once certain heir to lifelong third-base greatness in Philadelphia, Scott Rolen, is wondering the same thing.
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| 2001 SEASON STATISTICS |
| AB |
R |
HR |
RBI |
AVG |
SLG |
| 247 |
39 |
7 |
40 |
.259 |
.421 |
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With his team still in first place, Rolen suddenly found himself being booed through an 0-for-4 afternoon Sunday, four days after manager Larry Bowa was quoted by Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin as saying Rolen was "killing us."
Bowa later denied the quote -- at least any part of it that singled out Rolen. But the column inspired a long, and apparently heated, one-on-one between Rolen and Bowa. And all of that led to yet more speculation that there now is virtually no chance that Rolen will opt to re-up with the Phillies when contract talks resume next winter, a year before he can be a free agent.
In fact, that's a decision Rolen has yet to make. And general manager Ed Wade says he has no intention of making it easy for Rolen to say no.
"This story is being woven by people who aren't paying attention when I say we'll make every effort, after the season's over, to sign Scott long-term," Wade says. "Regardless of what people may want to think, unless or until I'm told that situation is unresolvable, that's the position I'm going to take."
Conlin reported that Rolen turned down a 10-year, $140-million offer this spring. But Rolen's agent, Seth Levinson, denies the two sides ever talked money.
In Philadelphia, though, people seem to believe only what they want to believe. And apparently, no one has noticed that his team is in first place, Rolen's on a pace to drive in 97 runs in a year in which he hasn't even gotten hot yet, he'll probably win a Gold Glove, he's played all but one game, he plays third base with a reckless abandon even Schmidt never duplicated, and he's been the first to admit he hasn't played the way he's capable of playing.
Apparently, no one also was paying much attention this spring when it became clear the reason the two sides never talked money is that Rolen -- who signed for millions below market value last time around -- didn't make that a priority. He asked only that the Phillies commit to trying to win.
"I don't want to talk about our contract negotiations," Wade said. "But the one thing I will say about those negotiations is that the one theme Scott talked about was that his ultimate goal was to win. As long as he maintains his focus on being part of this unit that's trying to win, that's all we ask.
"I know for a fact that Larry Bowa was not trying to single him out or anyone out. If you're going to take words like 'killing us' literally, then you've got to take words like 'carrying us' literally. And I don't think you can take words like that literally in our sport."
The Phillies might be able to diffuse some of the tension around Rolen with a more public show of affection for their most important player. But Wade says he thinks Rolen and Bowa have put the situation behind them -- and now "the way to diffuse it is to stop talking about it and play."
Is it possible the boos from the fans and the tension between Rolen and his manager could lead to Rolen turning down another contract offer and to the Phillies then trading him next winter? Of course.
"But the next four months of the season can have an impact, too," Wade said. "So let's go play.
"I don't think we need to call a press conference to say we still love Scott Rolen," the GM said, "because I don't think our position has changed. We do love Scott Rolen. ... He's a huge part of this club. And for this club to be successful, we need him to do what he can do out of the cleanup hole. But we need the same thing from Bobby Abreu in the No. 3 hole, and from Pat Burrell in his spot. We need them all do what what they're capable of doing. We're not trying to single anybody out."
Miscellaneous rumblings
The Rockies have actually kicked around the idea of using Mike Hampton as their pitcher and DH next month if his start falls against a left-handed starter. The Rockies are loaded with left-handed hitters but have very few right-handed hitters who could DH. And Hampton is hitting .300, with five homers. It probably won't come to that. But stay tuned.
The Rangers desperately needed young pitching, but we're having a tough time finding officials of other clubs who understood the trade of Ruben Mateo for Rob Bell, who has won two of his last 20 starts.
"I don't think that's equivalent value for Mateo," said one NL scout. "Rob Bell, to me, is probably only a back-end-of-the-rotation starter -- for a guy who could be a five-tool player."
"They're going to have to rebuild Mateo's psyche," says an NL executive. "I think he probably needs to spend a little time in Triple-A and get straightened out. But if he does, he can be a star. And the best-case scenario for Rob Bell is probably a Bobby Jones-type guy. He'll have to live and die with his curveball."
The next big deal could be a Mets-Pirates extravaganza, centering around John Vander Wal and Glendon Rusch. The Mets have been trying to deal for Vander Wal since spring training but have stepped up efforts since the firing of Cam Bonifay as GM in Pittsburgh.
Speaking of Pittsburgh, owner Kevin McClatchy has asked for permission to speak to only one candidate so far -- Red Sox assistant GM (and former Phillies GM) Lee Thomas. But the list of rumored candidates continues to grow.
The names of Giants assistant GM Ned Colletti and Phillies director of scouting Mike Arbuckle have been the two most prominently mentioned. McClatchy has long admired the Athletics' operation, so he's expected to interview both of Billy Beane's assistants, J.P. Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta.
Mets senior assistant GM Jim Duquette and Reds special assistant Al Goldis are possibilities. Interim GM Roy Smith will be considered. And two men with local ties -- Montreal assistant GM Mike Berger and Mets director of pro scouting Carmen Fusco -- almost certainly will talk to McClatchy. Indications now are that McClatchy wants to hire Bonifay's successor by the All-Star break.
Two early-line possibilities for Russ Davis if he clears waivers: Arizona and Baltimore.
Useless informationd dept.
Quite a year for interleague play. The Devil Rays still haven't won three games in a row against their own league -- but swept the first-place Phillies. And the Pirates still haven't won three in a row against their league -- but swept the mighty Indians (the AL wild-card entry if the playoffs started today).
Before last week, since the start of interleague play, only three times in four years had a last-place team in one league swept a team that was either in first place at the time or stood to be the wild-card team:
June 2000 -- Last-place Phillies sweep first-place Red Sox.
June 1999 -- Last-place Orioles sweep first-place Braves.
Sept. 1997 -- Last-place Phillies sweep wild-card Yankees.
Also on that note, the six last-place teams were two games over .500 (28-26) against the other league. Against their own league, through Sunday, they were 103 games under .500 (125-228).
If you were wondering the last time Mark McGwire found himself 30 back of the home-run leader, that's because you have to go all the way back to the day the strike hit in 1994. He was 34 back of major-league leader Matt Williams at that point (43 to 9) and 31 back of AL leader Ken Griffey Jr. (40 to 9).
And even more amazing than Barry Bonds getting to 36 homers 12 games faster than McGwire did in 1998 (it took Big Mac 79 games) is that Bonds got there 29 games faster than Sammy Sosa did that year on the way to 66 homers. Sosa hit No. 36 more than a week after the All-Star break -- on July 17, in the Cubs' 95th game. Bonds hit No. 36 on June 15, in the Giants' 67th game.
Brad Radke and Eric Milton last week became the first pitchers to throw back-to-back complete games against the Astros since June 7-8, 1992 (when the long-lost duo of Trevor Wilson and Bruce Hurst did it). According to Elias, that's the longest stretch of avoiding back-to-back CGs in baseball history.
But that record may not hold up for long. The Dodgers need to dodge that fate for just another three weeks, and they'll break it. Last time they had two straight complete games thrown against them: July 4 and 5, 1992 (by Terry Mulholland and Mike Williams, then of the Phillies, now teammates in Pittsburgh).
Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling currently rank 1-2 in the National League in strikeouts. And only three times in the last 20 years have teammates finished first and second in the K corner.
Elias' Ken Hirdt reports that the last time was in 1990 -- when it happened in both leagues (Texas' Nolan Ryan and Bobby Witt in the AL, the Mets' David Cone and Dwight Gooden in the NL). The only other occasion: 1987, when Ryan and Mike Scott finished 1-2 for the Astros.
Best-hitting American League pitching staff in interleague play (by a mile): the Twins (3-for-5, no strikeouts, against the Cubs). The bad news was: They got three more hits than wins.
Worst-hitting AL staffs: Orioles (0-for-8, 6 strikeouts) and Red Sox (0-for-8, 5 strikeouts). Red Sox pitchers are now 2-for-62 over the last four seasons.
When Darren Bragg, the pride of Watertown, Conn., was claimed by the Yankees last week, it completed his personal trifecta of teams he was surrounded by all his life. He's just the 11th player to play for the Red Sox, Mets and Yankees. The others, courtesy of loyal reader Jerry Beach, Mets beat writer for e-sportsnation.com:
Rick Cerone (Sox 1988-89, Mets 1991, Yanks 1980-84, 87, 89)
David Cone (Sox 2001, Mets 1987-92, Yanks 1995-2000)
Greg Harris (Sox 1989-94, Mets 1981, Yanks 1994)
Josias Manzanillo (Sox 1991, Mets 1993-95, 99, Yanks 1995)
Bobby Ojeda (Sox 1980-85, Mets 1986-90, Yanks 1994)
Jeff Reardon (Sox 1990-92, Mets 1979-81, Yanks 1994)
Bill Short (Sox 1966, Mets 1968, Yanks 1960)
Tom Sturdivant (Sox 1960, Mets 1964, Yanks 1955-59)
Frank Tanana (Sox 1981, Mets 1993, Yanks 1993)
Mike Torrez (Sox 1978-82, Mets 1983-84, Yanks 1977)
Bragg was also the ninth player since 1962 to go from one NY team directly to the other in the middle of a season. Here's that list, in chronological order, also courtesy of Jerry Beach:
Bob Friend (from Yanks to Mets in '66)
Hal Reniff (from Yanks to Mets in '67)
Ray Burris (from Yanks to Mets in '79)
Tim Burke (from Mets to Yanks in '92)
Lee Guetterman (from Yanks to Mets in '92)
Paul Gibson (from Mets to Yanks in '93)
Frank Tanana (from Mets to Yanks in '93)
Josias Manzanillo (from Mets to Yanks in '95)
Darren Bragg (from Mets to Yanks in '01)
You'll notice Bragg was the first position player ever to go straight from the Mets to the Yankees in midseason (or vice-versa).
The Padres have pulled off one of the most remarkable daily doubles of the year. They've allowed a no-hitter (A.J. Burnett) and a cycle (John Olerud) in the same season -- but they've still never had any player on their own team achieve either of those feats.
So what happened Sunday when the unwalkable Alfonso Soriano (7 walks in 255 plate appearances) faced Rick Reed, the pitcher who never issues a walk (12 walks, 394 batters faced)? Soriano struck out -- on three CALLED strikes.
The sequence of their first meeting, courtesy of Jerry Beach:
Pitch 1: Strike looking
Pitch 2: Strike looking
Pitch 3: Foul ball
Pitch 4: Pitchout, ball
Pitch 5: Foul ball
Pitch 6: Strike looking
Lee Sinins, of baseballimmortals.net, reports that Sammy Sosa just moved into second place -- behind only George Herman Ruth -- on the list of most home runs for a team that player didn't make his major-league debut with. The top five:
1. Babe Ruth, Yankees, 659 (debuted with Red Sox)
2. Sammy Sosa, Cubs, 377 (Rangers)
3. Norm Cash, Tigers, 373 (White Sox)
4. Barry Bonds, Giants, 354 (Pirates)
5. Jay Buhner, Mariners, 305 (Yankees)
Honorable mention: Jeff Bagwell (325 for the Astros) would be fifth if he'd ever played a game for the Red Sox. But he was traded before his Boston debut.
Minor-leaguer of the week: Phillies pitching prospect Adam Walker went into his start for Double-A Reading on Monday riding a Vander Meer-ish streak. He'd faced 58 straight hitters without allowing a hit. Two starts ago, he gave up a single to the leadoff hitter in the first inning, then went on to throw a complete-game one-hitter. Then, in his next start, he threw a no-hitter.
Finally, of all the opening-day starters in the big leagues, guess who has the second-lowest ERA? (That Pedro guy is No. 1, at 2.01).
It's Atlanta's John Burkett, of course, at 2.51. In his last four starts, Burkett has allowed a total of 15 hits -- in 28 innings. What a story.
Trivia answer
Rickey Henderson (1,380 SB, 287 HR) and Eric Davis (279 HR, 349 SB).
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each Monday.
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