They are three letters that define careers.
M-V-P.
|  | | Sammy Sosa leads the majors with 121 RBI. |
Only one man can win an MVP award in any given league in any given year. And some years, that's not a problem. Some years, every second grader in Eau Claire, Wis., could figure out in 10 seconds who the MVP is.
But then there are years like this year in the increasingly crazed National League.
You try to pick an MVP right now in this league. Good luck. We've spent the past couple of days surveying GMs, scouts and other assorted executives. All of them had trouble even naming a favorite. We can't blame them.
Heading into Tuesday's games, these were the paces the three leading candidates were on:
Barry Bonds: 71 HR, 140 RBI, 122 runs, 107 extra-base hits, .308 batting average, .486 on-base percentage, .824 slugging percentage.
Luis Gonzalez: 61 HR, 151 RBI, 136 runs, 103 extra-base hits, .347 batting average, .438 on-base percentage, .724 slugging percentage.
Sammy Sosa: 60 HR, 158 RBI, 136 runs, 105 extra-base hits, .318 batting average, .430 on-base percentage, .723 slugging percentage.
Whoah. Are you kidding? How could any of those guys have seasons like that and not win an MVP award? Think about it as we digest those numbers for a moment.
Bonds could be headed for the home run record, the highest slugging percentage by any player not named Babe Ruth, the highest on-base percentage by any National Leaguer since 1935 (Arky Vaughn) and the NL record for extra-base hits. So how could he not win?
But then there's Gonzalez. If you just took his core numbers right now -- .347, 46 home runs, 115 RBI -- no MVP in either league has been higher in all three categories since Mickey Mantle in 1956. And before Mantle, you have to go all the way back to Jimmie Foxx in 1938.
So this would be tough enough if Sosa weren't in the mix. But he leads Bonds, Gonzalez and everyone else in the league in RBI and runs scored. Only Bonds has more extra-base hits. And, in case you hadn't noticed, Sammy is now tied with Gonzalez in homers.
You don't have to rewind the time machine too far to recall that Sosa had almost an identical year in 1998 -- and beat out some guy named McGwire for the MVP. So why not this year?
Why? Because it's a mess. That's why. And getting messier all the time.
"The thing about all those guys," said Marlins GM Dave Dombrowski, "is if you took any one of them out of their teams' lineups, those lineups would look significantly different. It's not like you have six guys having great years in one lineup, and those guys are the best of the six. All of them are key guys. They're guys who you say, 'Don't let that guy beat you.' But they are."
The more they do it, the tougher this gets. And we don't even have a vote. But we have had a few MVP votes in our day. So we know this isn't about numbers alone.
When we picked an MVP, the first criteria we always used was: What was the context of this player's numbers?
All numbers in this race are not created equal. We don't necessarily give extra credit to a player whose team makes the playoffs. But we do give weight to a player whose numbers came in the context of a race, of big games, of situations that make or break a season.
That doesn't always eliminate someone like Todd Helton. But if a bunch of players have similar stats, you favor the guys whose teams are playing for something.
But that doesn't help us separate Bonds, Sosa or Gonzalez, whose teams could all be playing in October. So the next criteria is tougher:
How do you measure what each of these players means to his particular team?
Numbers alone can't determine that meaning. But let's just look at one number that sheds light on these players' value to their club: Percent of their team's runs they've accounted for.
To calculate this, we added each players runs scored and RBI, then subtracted home runs so they don't count twice. Then we looked at the percentage of their team's run totals that figure represented. Here's what we found:
|
Player
|
Runs produced
|
Team's runs
|
Pct.
|
|
Sosa
|
181
|
555
|
32.6%
|
|
Gonzalez
|
172
|
618
|
27.8%
|
|
Bonds
|
146
|
613
|
23.8%
|
Now does that mean Sosa has been nearly 10 percent more valuable to his team's offense than Bonds has? No. It's just a number. But it's a revealing number all the same.
Sosa has driven in 121 runs for a team on which no one else has even driven in 50 runs. (Ron Coomer is next, with 48.) At least Jeff Kent has 81 RBI hitting behind Bonds, and Rich Aurilia has 74 RBI hitting in front of him.
But Gonzalez's situation hasn't been much different than Sosa's, even though the Diamondbacks seem to have bigger names around him in the lineup.
"Who else besides him," said Larry Haney, senior special assistant to the GM in Milwaukee, "is having a great year offensively over there? They've won because this guy is doing a lot of run-producing, and he's done it consistently all year."
Gonzalez (115 RBI) is nearly 50 RBI ahead of his team's runner-up, Reggie Sanders (69). He's also scored 44 more runs than his next-closest teammate (also Sanders).
"The guy was a one-man wrecking crew against us," said Expos GM Jim Beattie. "I felt like, among that group, he was the one guy we needed to pitch around more than anybody else."
So for sheer, stand-alone offensive value, the numbers tell you Sosa and Gonzalez have meant slightly more to their teams than Bonds has. But Bonds has also been walked in 40 percent of his plate appearances with men in scoring position (49 of 123). So how do we measure the ripple effect of his sheer presence on Kent's RBI total?
Still, Sosa has actually been intentionally walked more times than Bonds (28 to 26). And more than half of Sosa's walks this season (47 of 88) have come with runners in scoring position. Yet he's still leading the league in RBI. So the old "they-pitch-around-Barry-more" argument isn't supported by the facts.
But Bonds has been under the microscope more than any other player in either league for virtually the entire season. So he does get extra points for that.
Nevertheless, if we were voting today, we'd take Sammy.
Except we're not voting today.
This season has almost six weeks to run. So how do we even know that a Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman or Moises Alou won't carry the Astros to a 33-5 finish?
How do we know that Shawn Green, Gary Sheffield, Albert Pujols, Bobby Abreu or Chipper Jones won't hitch their teams onto the back of their tow trucks these last six weeks? After all, Jason Giambi sure wasn't an MVP favorite this time a year ago.
Bottom line is: This script hasn't finished being composed yet. So all of these guys have a chance to write themselves a happy ending to one of the most fascinating MVP races of modern times. Don't touch that remote.
Miscellaneous rumblings
Remember last September, when the A's, Mariners and Indians were heading down the stretch with a chance to finish with exactly the same record?
Remember all the screaming when people figured out that baseball's tie-breaking rules would seemingly have rewarded the Indians for finishing second -- by making them the automatic wild-card team and forcing the A's and Mariners to play a win-or-go-home one-game playoff for the AL West?
Well, a year later, those tie-breaker rules still haven't changed, even though general managers voted at their annual meetings last fall to strongly recommend a new system.
What the GMs proposed was this:
If three teams tie for the final two playoff spots -- but two of them are tied for first place in the same division -- the two teams tied for first would play off, as in the past, for the division title.
But instead of punishing a team for tying for first in the wrong division, the GMs wanted to give the loser of that playoff game a second chance -- by allowing it to play the third team for the wild-card spot.
That recommendation has never been implemented, however, because the players' union hasn't signed off on it.
Dombrowski, who is the chief liaison for the GMs on these matters, says he doesn't understand why the rule was never changed, but baseball officials have scheduled a conference call to discuss this matter later this week.
"When we voted at our meetings, there was a fairly strong feeling about this," Dombrowski said. "It just doesn't seem fair to play a full season and have a club that ties for first and (then gets sent home because it loses a playoff game, while a second-place team advances). ... But we're getting to the point where every year, this is becoming an issue, with these races as close as they are."
The union has long been concerned about a couple of issues here: One is delaying the start of the playoffs. The second is the potential travel nightmare a team might face.
A team such as Arizona, for instance, could end the season in Phoenix, travel to San Francisco for a one-game playoff the next day, possibly travel again across the country to Philadelphia for a one-game wild-card playoff the following day and then travel again to yet another city to start the postseason the next day.
That's a logistical horror show, certainly. But it beats heading home for the winter. Doesn't it?
You should believe that story in the Tampa Tribune this week suggesting that baseball officials have discussed folding the Devil Rays and moving the Expos to Tampa Bay. That's a similar scenario to the story about the A's moving to Anaheim to replace a folded Angels franchise.
But does that mean any of this will happen next year? No chance -- because the union would insist on a say in it as part of a potential labor solution. That also makes the odds of this version of contraction happening in the long term slim, but not impossible.
Speaking of labor solutions, there have been rumblings of some low-level labor talks being held well below the radar screen. But those talks apparently have ceased again, as the owners' side attempts to get its ranks on the same negotiating page.
You hate to make too much of 12-year-olds. But after watching Little League World Series phenom Danny Almonte throw his perfect game on TV Saturday, one scout said he thought about calling his GM and saying:
"I found a left-hander for you. He's only 12, but he can pitch." Does anybody recall another 12-year-old baseball player who inspired this kind of attention? "We could have a mini-Tiger Woods thing going here," the scout said.
Speaking of phenoms, here's another NL scout on the two preeminent NL rookie position players, Albert Pujols and Jimmy Rollins:
| |  | |
| Pujols |
On Pujols: "He's like a young Manny (Ramirez). If you were just to watch him, you'd say there's no way he just came out of A-ball and played one year. He doesn't fear anybody. He uses the whole field. And he hits the hard throwers. He's not just a cripple hitter. He's the real deal."
On Rollins: "He's been the glue on that team from Day 1. If they don't have him catching the ball, making plays and getting big hits and big steals, no way the Phillies are where they are right now."
The two most overblown stories in New York: Joe Torre's contract and Robin Ventura to the Yankees. No way Torre isn't back. And the Yankees' interest in Ventura was never more than lukewarm at any point -- and nonexistent at the moment.
We know Frank Robinson is trying to make a statement as a guy who won't stand for on-field shenanigans. But after he handed down his sentences for that Tigers-Royals brawl last week, the Tigers became the latest team to question whether there's sufficient rhyme and/or reason to Robinson's punishments.
"He's ruining the game, taking the game away," pitcher Danny Patterson told Booth Newspapers' Danny Knobler. "He'll probably fine me for saying that, but it's a joke. Everybody around the league knows it's a joke."
Tigers coach Juan Samuel, who was just trying to play peacemaker, was shocked to learn he'd been suspended for one game and fined $500.
"I'm going to have to start hitting guys around if I'm going to get suspended," said Samuel, who served a 10-game suspension (reduced from 15) for his role in last year's Tigers-White Sox brawl. "All I did was push a coach away from (bench coach Doug Mansolino). I guess I'm supposed to go out there with my hands tied."
We'll concede that baseball's attempt to crack down on brawls is admirable. And tough punishments are a part of that. But if Robinson were to issue some sort of clear-cut standard for potential punishments for various offenses in advance, he would take a lot less grief.
After seeing two screenings of the new Freddie Prinze Jr.-Jessica Biel baseball movie, "Summer Catch," which opens this weekend, we think this movie has a chance to carve a niche for itself as one of those baseball flicks people rent, own and laugh at for years.
The film is an ode to the legendary Cape Cod League. And several players we know who have played in that league and seen the film loved it, with some minor reservations over a couple of plot twists tailored for mass-audience consumption.
But producer Mike Tollin's affection for his favorite sport provides the little touches that make it all work, including subtle homage to a bunch of Phillies players from his youth, via characters named Dalrymple (in honor of Clay Dalrymple), Sievers (for Roy) and Doyle (for Denny).
Also worth looking for: cameos by Hank Aaron and Dick Allen.
"After one of the screenings, Mike Pagliarulo -- who played in the Cape League -- told me, 'You got it, man,' " said Tollin, previously heralded for his work on "Arliss" and the "Hank Aaron: Chasing the Dream" documentary. "That really meant a lot to me. When you make a film where you borrow somebody's reality, you owe it to them to capture the spirit of that reality."
Finally, how could we not love a film dedicated to the memory of legendary scout Hugh Alexander?
Triviality
Vladimir Guerrero just reached 30 homers in a season for the fourth time -- at age 25. Can you name the four other active players, currently age 25 and under, who have hit 30 in any season, including this one?
(Answer at bottom.)
Useless information dept.
In some ways, Jose Rijo's return to the big leagues after five years is far from unprecedented. In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau's Randy Robles, he's the ninth pitcher since 1990 to make it back to the majors after an absence of at least five years.
But only one of the other eight spent the previous five years pitching nowhere. Here are those eight -- and where they got to in between appearances in the big leagues:
7 years: Danny Boone (1982-1990) -- Out of baseball five years, signed out of the old Senior League. (Span between appearances -- 7 years, 11 months -- was longest since Jim Bouton went 8 years, 42 days between 1970 and 1978.)
6 years: Efrain Valdez (1991-1998) -- Mexican League.
6 years: Mike Norris (1983-1990) -- Drug suspension, shoulder trouble, out of pro ball for two years.
5 years: Larry Luebbers (1993-1999) -- Minors.
5 years: Steve Fireovid (1986-1992) -- Minors.
5 years: Brent Knackert (1990-1996) -- Minors (missed one year after surgery).
5 years: Ravelo Manzanillo (1988-1994) -- Minors, Taiwan, one year out of pro ball.
5 years: Kip Gross (1993-1999) -- Minors, Japan.
This week's lesson from the Mariners' history book: They still haven't lost a series on the road all season. (They've won 17, split four). No team has ever made it through an entire season without losing at least one road series, according to Elias. So the Mariners are five series away. They still have to go to Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Anaheim, Oakland and Texas.
The Cardinals are the first team since the 1978 Pirates to have two winning streaks of 10 games or more in the same season. But those '78 Pirates missed the playoffs. And if this postseason started today, it would start without the Cardinals, who were nine games under .500 (47-56) through Monday in all their other games.
Of the four previous teams in the 40-year expansion era had more than one 10-game winning streak -- and two of them did not make the playoffs, according to Elias' Ken Hirdt: those '78 Pirates and the '69 Astros. The other two teams to do it: the '69 Mets and '77 Royals.
We know Jimy Williams was the first manager fired with his team 12 games over .500 since George Steinbrenner canned Billy Martin for the fifth time in 1988. Here are the other managers in the last 50 years who were let go in midseason with teams that were 12 over .500 or better:
1981: Gene Michael, Yankees (48-34)
1972: Harry (The Hat) Walker, Astros (68-54)
1961: Charlie Dressen, Braves (71-58)
1961: Paul Richards, Orioles (78-57)
Believe it or not, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling have combined for a ridiculous 16 games this year of 12 strikeouts or more -- 10 by the Unit, six by Schilling. Last teammates to do that, according to Elias' Ken Hirdt (tossing out staffs on which one pitcher did it all but once): Nolan Ryan (15) and Bill Singer (2), for the '73 Angels. Last NL teammates: two guys named Sandy Koufax (14) and Don Drysdale (2) in 1965.
| |  | |
| Johnson |
Speaking of the Unit, he broke another record this weekend: Most strikeouts in a season (287) by a 37-year-old. The East Valley Tribune's Ed Price reports that the previous record (286) was held by Steve Carlton.
The top four (for pitchers who were 37 on July 1 of that season):
287: Randy Johnson, 2001
286: Steve Carlton, 1982
200: Cy Young, 1904
200: Dazzy Vance, 1928
Schilling and Johnson also have a shot to become the first National League teammates to win 22 or more games apiece since (here come those names again) Koufax (26-8) and Drysdale (23-12), in '65. The only two sets of teammates have won 22 or more each in the era of the five-man rotation: Dave Stewart and Bob Welch, for the 1990 A's; and LaMarr Hoyt and Richard Dotson of the 1983 White Sox.
As long as we're now chronicling Mark McGwire's hits by dividing them into the category of homers and non-homers, try this note on for size: Sunday was Big Mac's 518th game as a Cardinal. It was only the third in which he's hit three non-homers (i.e., three hits that didn't include any trots). The others: June 23, 1999 (a double and two singles against the Astros) and May 1, 1999 (three singles against the Expos).
What does it say about the age we live in that Barry Bonds and Luis Gonzalez have become the 10th and 11th active players to hold their current team's record for most home runs in a season? The others: Mark McGwire (Cardinals), Sammy Sosa (Cubs), Larry Walker (Rockies), Jeff Bagwell (Astros), Gary Sheffield (Dodgers), Vladimir Guerrero (Expos), Troy Glaus (Angels), Rafael Palmeiro (Rangers) and (surprise) Brady Anderson (Orioles). Sheffield and Palmeiro are tied for their franchise records, with Duke Snider and Juan Gonzalez, respectively.
If Derek Jeter just spent his career leading off, he might go down as the greatest leadoff man of his time. His numbers in the leadoff hole the last two years (through Sunday): 52-for-138 (.377), .476 on-base percentage. Jeter also just missed becoming the second player in history to lead off three straight games with a home run. He did hit a leadoff homer in three of five (Aug. 14, 17 and 18) The only guy who ever hit a leadoff bomb three straight games: Brady Anderson, who actually did it four games in a row from April 18-21, 1996 (off Jamie Moyer, Roger Pavlik, Kevin Gross and Darren Oliver).
Byung-Hyun Kim hasn't been around long enough to be in the Pedro Martinez category yet. But as Sammy Sosa reminded us this weekend, the numbers of opposing hitters against this guy are downright sick. Check out this minor sampling:
Sosa 0-for-8, 6 strikeouts
Phil Nevin, 0-for-7, 5 strikeouts
Julio Lugo, 0-for-5, 5 strikeouts
Rondell White, 0-for-5, 4 strikeouts
In case you didn't get the picture, right-handed hitters would rather explain nuclear fusion than face this guy.
A few weeks ago, we chronicled how Detroit's Roger Cedeno was 9-for-10 in his career off Dave Burba. Booth Newspapers' Danny Knobler reports Cedeno is also now 7-for-8 off Ismael Valdes. Against the two combined, he's 16 for 18, with five walks. Amazing.
From our You Know You're Getting Old Dept.: For the first time in history, three pitchers born in the '80s won a game this weekend -- C.C. Sabathia (born July 21, 1980) for the Indians on Saturday, Carlos Hernandez (born April 22, 1980) for the Astros on Saturday and Nick Neugebauer (born July 15, 1980) for the Brewers on Sunday.
The only other players born in the '80s on active rosters: Devil Rays reliever Jesus Colome, Blue Jays infielder Felipe Lopez, Rockies shortstop Juan Uribe and, depending on whose birth certificate you believe, currently injured Braves shortstop Rafael Furcal.
If you're into colors, how about this development: Elmer Dessens started Saturday for the Reds and gave up home runs to a White (Devon) and a Brown (Kevin).
| |  | |
| Bohanon |
Because of his facial resemblance to the late, great Bambino, Rockies pitcher Brian Bohanon's nickname is "Babe." So there was a certain irony to the fact that he headed for the disabled list over the weekend with an ERA of 7.14. (Figure it out.)
We asked last week if anyone knew of two players from the same high school who ever led their league in stolen bases, since Jimmy Rollins and Tommy Harper (both from Encinal High School in Alameda, Calif.) appear ready to pull off that feat.
No one came up with any stolen-base duos from other high schools. But reader Bob Timmerman, of South Pasadena, Calif., at least had a close call. Fremont High in Los Angeles produced one-time NL stolen-base champ Bobby Tolan and Eric Davis, who had 80 steals for the '86 Reds but finished second to Vince Coleman (when Coleman swiped 107).
Speaking of Rollins, longtime reader Lee Sinins, of baseballimmortals.net reports that Rollins has a shot to set the all-time record for highest stolen-base success rate by a stolen-base champion. He currently is 39 for 41 (95.1 percent), with both caught-stealings coming after pickoffs by the pitcher.
The top five percentages by a stolen-base leader:
|
Player
|
Year
|
League
|
SB
|
CS
|
Rate
|
|
Max Carey
|
1922
|
NL
|
51
|
2
|
96.2
|
|
Craig Biggio
|
1994
|
NL
|
39
|
4
|
90.7
|
|
T. Womack
|
1997
|
NL
|
60
|
7
|
89.6
|
|
R. Henderson
|
1985
|
AL
|
80
|
10
|
88.9
|
|
Maury Wills
|
1962
|
NL
|
104
|
13
|
88.9
|
Minor leaguer of the week: Veteran pitcher Marc Valdes had never hit a home run in his pro career. But Howe Sportsdata's Josh Goldfine reports that last Wednesday, Valdes made himself the winning pitcher by hitting a 14th-inning walkoff homer for the Richmond Braves in a 5-4 win over Toledo.
Naturally, he took plenty of abuse from his teammates. The next night, manager Carlos Tosca posted a lineup card that had Valdes' name in it.
Since we've spent our career chronicling attendance by all sorts of living creatures, we were alarmed this month when the White Sox announced that just under 500 dogs attended this year's annual Dog Day afternoon game. That marked the first decline in canine attendance in Dog Day history.
But this drop apparently is not due to a mass hit for the pooch populace's canine stock portfolio. White Sox marketing genius Rob Gallas reports the White Sox just redid their outfield seating over the winter and wound up with a smaller dog-ready section of the bleachers.
So the White Sox maintained their perfect record of dog sellouts, even though those human sellouts have been tougher to come by. Woof. Woof.
The Sultan's Corner
Shawn Green just became the first Dodger ever to have a three-homer game at Dodger Stadium. So the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR's David Vincent, breaks down which current parks have hosted the most and fewest three-homer games by players for the home team:
Most
Good note. The top 3 are the 3 oldest parks (1914, 1912, 1923).
18: Wrigley Field
11: Fenway Park
10: Yankee Stadium
6: Oakland-Alameda County Stadium
5: Riverfront Stadium
4: The Ballpark in Arlington
4: Coors Field
(Of course, Wrigley was built in 1914, Fenway in 1912 and Yankee Stadium in 1923).
Fewest
0: Anaheim Stadium
0: Turner Field
0: Comiskey Park II
0: Comerica Park
0: Enron Field
0: Joe Robbie Stadium
0: Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
0: Shea Stadium
0: Bank One Ballpark
0: PNC Park
0: San Diego/Jack Murphy Stadium
0: Pacific Bell Park
0: Safeco Field
0: Tropicana Field
Colorado's Jose Ortiz had two career home runs before erupting for three in one game last week. But the Sultan reports that's not the fewest ever:
Mickey Cochrane, 5/21/1925, 1
Joe Lahoud, 6/11/1969, 1
Jim Pendleton, 8/30/1953, 1
Norm Zauchin, 5/27/1955, 1
Bobby Avila, 6/20/1951, 2
Bobby Estalella, 9/4/1997, 2
Only two sets of brothers have ever hit 10 or more homers for the same team in the same season. Jason and Jeremy Giambi just became the first brothers to do it twice. The complete list:
54: Tony Conigliaro (36), Billy Conigliaro (18), 1970 Red Sox
53: Jason Giambi (43), Jeremy Giambi (10), 2000 Athletics
39: Jason Giambi (29), Jeremy Giambi (10), 2001 Athletics
Texas' Pat Mahomes just became the 11th pitcher in the last 10 seasons to give up four home runs in one inning. Before that, it had happened 11 times in history. The complete list of pitchers who have achieved this dubious feat:
Henry Lampe, Braves, 6/6/1894, 3rd inning
Larry Benton, Giants, 5/12/1930, 7th inning
Bill Kerksieck Phillies, 8/13/1939, 4th inning
George Caster, Athletics, 9/24/1940, 6th inning
Charlie Bicknell, Phillies, 6/6/1948, 6th inning
Ben Wade, Dodgers, 5/28/1954, 8th inning
Cal McLish, Indians, 5/22/1957, 6th inning
Paul Foytack, Angels, 7/31/1963, 6th inning
Catfish Hunter, Yankees, 6/17/1977, 1st inning
Mike Caldwell, Brewers, 5/31/1980, 4th inning
Mario Soto, Reds, 4/29/1986, 4th inning
Scott Sanderson, Yankees, 5/2/1992, 5th inning
John Smoltz, Braves, 6/19/1994, 1st inning
Brian Anderson, Angels, 9/5/1995, 2nd inning
Dave Telgheder, A's, 9/21/1996, 3rd inning
Jose Lima, Astros, 4/27/2000, 1st inning
Andy Benes, Cardinals, 7/23/2000, 2nd inning
Phil Norton, Cubs, 8/8/2000, 4th inning
Steve Trachsel, Mets, 5/17/2001, 3rd inning
Alan Embree, Giants, 5/20/2001, 7th inning
Dave Burba, Indians, 6/29/2001, 4th inning
Pat Mahomes, Rangers, 8/17/2001, 6th inning
Trivia answer
Troy Glaus (twice), Andruw Jones (twice), Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada (once each, through Monday).
Jayson Stark is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings appears each week.
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