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Tuesday, November 20
Updated: November 21, 2:35 PM ET

Will Rolen stay or will he go? Stay tuned

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com

As Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman could attest, sometimes those matches made in heaven take a detour off the road to paradise.

For our latest example, we turn not to Page 6 of the New York Post, but to the imminent bust-up between Scott Rolen and the only team he has ever played for, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Scott Rolen
The apparent miscommunicartion between Scott Rolen and the Phillies is turning into one of the offseason's bigger dramas.

It wasn't so long ago Rolen was the Phillies' golden boy, their first rookie of the year in three decades, the centerpiece of all they hoped to be. Now, at age 26, he's suddenly as hot a commodity on the baseball trading floor as any player on earth.

He told the Phillies last week he preferred becoming a free agent in a year to signing a Phillie-for-life contract extension right now. And they took that as a translation for "adios."

How did it get to this point? It's suffice to say just about everyone on both sides threw a log or two on this bonfire.

The relentless losing in Philadelphia wore Rolen out. And this year, the winning wasn't much better. Rolen battled his manager, got skewered on the radio by Dallas Green, dodged boos from the seats and wondered when his apology from the brass was going to arrive as he was arising to almost lead the Phillies into the playoffs.

But Rolen made mistakes, too. He was private. He probably missed too many sponsors' functions for his bosses' tastes. But mostly, he rarely let his own fans see what a smart, charming, witty, likeable guy he is when there's no NeXturf around.

Then, when it came time to talk contract extension last March, the Phillies misjudged Rolen's determination to make a commitment to winning the No. 1 item on the agenda.

So they didn't allow enough time to negotiate the differences on a touchy subject. They let Rolen's opening-day deadline pass without a deal. And ultimately, they weren't given a chance in November to pick up where they left off.

It's possible they could have played this differently when negotiations broke down last week before they ever started. It's possible the Phillies could have tried spending the next eight months showering Rolen with love and "it'll-never-happen-agains," mixed with vows to do everything in their power to win.

Instead, they opted to release details of a March contract offer (seven years, $90 million, plus three years and $50 million worth of options) they never were allowed by Rolen to formally make. Rolen, meanwhile, chose to go public Friday with his own feelings.

And now, it appears, the Phillies have no choice but to trade one of the best third basemen in baseball, even though he's still younger than players like Marlon Anderson, Jason LaRue and Geoff Jenkins.

Phillies GM Ed Wade continues to tell people -- including the teams burning up the phone lines -- that he isn't going to trade Rolen just to trade him.

"It's not the worst situation I can think of," Wade said, "to have a Gold Glove third baseman here all year."

But the reality is, at least half the 30 teams in baseball are going to be interested. So even though the Phillies' stance will be that they need to be overwhelmed to deal Rolen, the fact is: They very well might be.

"Look around baseball," said one NL front-office man Tuesday. "It's amazing, the shortage of quality third basemen. You factor in his defense, his age and his offense, and this guy will be attractive to a lot of people."

The list of teams believed to be interested is longer than the Jersey Turnpike: the Cardinals, Rockies, Reds, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Mariners, Braves, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Astros, Rangers -- among others.

What will the Phillies want back? A third baseman or big-time bat. A top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher -- or a young pitcher on the verge of being that animal. And a third player, preferably a prospect.

They won't be collecting other teams' salary dumpees. They'll be asking for prime names. And you'll be hearing big-time rumors involving big-time players: Bud Smith, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Delgado, Jon Lieber, Mike Hampton, Kevin Millwood, Alfonso Soriano, Sean Casey, etc. If those aren't the kind of names being tossed out, the conversations won't last long.

But can the Phillies get that kind of return if Rolen is insistent on becoming a free agent no matter where he goes? Good question. But Rolen apparently hasn't ruled out at least listening to offers from whatever team is ready to deal for him.

Asked if his free-agency stance might change, Rolen clearly didn't say no. What he said was: "This was the decision I had to make right now. If I don't get traded, there are no decisions to make. If I do get traded, then I do have a decision to make. I'm taking this step by step."

He has told friends he would almost certainly be interested in an extension with the Cubs and Cardinals. And he's long admired the Braves, although the Phillies figure to be reluctant to deal him within the division.

It will be a fascinating hot-stove saga. It's also one no one could have envisioned just a few short years ago.

Miscellaneous rumblings

No offseason signing has opened more eyes than Andruw Jones' six-year, $75-million extension with the Braves -- mostly because Jones pulled an end-around on agent Scott Boras to negotiate it.

About a week after the season ended, Jones personally called GM John Schuerholz, asking if he could set up a meeting among himself, his father and Schuerholz.

Jones and his father then came into the Braves' office "and told me they were interested in doing a deal," Schuerholz said. "We soon learned we were pretty parallel on what they were trying to achieve and what we wanted, which was to keep Andruw as a Brave. And we found we were pretty parallel on the finances. They were so prepared and so intent, I don't (think) the meeting would have ended without us getting a deal done."

Once they got it done, Jones then phoned Boras to tell him this was what had been offered and that he planned to take it.

Boras decided to use this publicly as a chance to demonstrate that "I work for the client; the client doesn't work for me." But in fact, a number of baseball officials felt Boras had positioned Jones to be The Next A-Rod, hitting the open market next year at age 25, with a chance to be the second $200 Million Man.

Instead, Jones decided all he wanted was to be a Brave.

"He said, 'I don't want to be the highest-paid player. I don't need to be the highest-paid player,' " Schuerholz said. "He said, 'This is what I need to make me happy.' "

What a concept: A guy can be happy with only $75 million. What's this sport coming to?

Schuerholz admits that John Smoltz continues to be "conflicted" over whether he wants his future to be as a closer in Atlanta or a starter elsewhere.

"I hope he decides to think about it more and consider how well his career might go if he continues to be a closer," Schuerholz said. "I really think that if he goes out and saves 100 games, he could be a Hall of Famer. That's the caliber of a closer I think he could be."

But Smoltz has a swarm of teams that would be happy to let him start -- including the Yankees, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox and Orioles. So stay tuned.

The Yankees' negotiations with Jason Giambi and agent Arn Tellem look as if they might be virtually identical to their negotiations with Tellem last year on Mike Mussina.

The Yankees, as they did with Mussina, are expected to offer Giambi several alternatives -- with his total dollars varying depending on the number of years he wants and other items in the contract.

Last year, the Yankees were determined not to let the annual value of Mussina's deal go beyond The Kevin Brown Line ($15 million a year). This year, they'll be sure to stay below The Derek Jeter Line ($18.9 million a year).

After A-Rod and Jeter on the salary ladder, the next wave all comes in around $17 million a year -- Manny Ramirez (factoring in deferrals), Carlos Delgado (for four years) and Jeff Bagwell (for five years). So $17 million looks like a likely figure for Giambi, unless he's willing to take a six-year deal. He's said to prefer seven or eight years.

The Yankees have been portrayed numerous times this fall as planning to play rookie Nick Johnson at first base and use Giambi as a DH. But Giambi told the San Francisco Chronicle, flatly: "I don't ever want to be a DH." And there are indications the Yankees are flexible on that issue.

Rick Reed's decision to exercise his right to demand the Twins trade him is more intriguing than it might appear on the surface.

Under normal circumstances, if the Twins don't comply by March 15, Reed would become a free agent. But what happens if the Twins are contracted before March 15? Would the team that takes him in a dispersal draft be compelled to assume that trade demand? No one knows. But if the contraction plan moves along, you can bet that question will be asked plenty.

Even as the Phillies mull trading away one centerpiece player (Rolen), they might have another one arriving any time now. One scout on Eastern League MVP Marlon Byrd, after watching him in the Arizona Fall League: "He's got a chance to be something special." Byrd's probable ETA in the Phillies' outfield -- late next season.

One name you can forget about if the Yankees start talking about Rolen is Drew Henson. Henson gave up football to be a Yankee, not a baseball player. So the Yankees won't even think of dealing him. But an executive of another club says he's been told they may consider moving Henson to left field if the right third baseman emerged in their picture.

Marlins people have been telling teams that, assuming they still exist in a month, they're looking to deal one of their young pitchers to trim payroll and open a rotation slot for Josh Beckett. They would prefer to move Matt Clement, but they'll talk about Ryan Dempster. Of course, this is a team with no GM and no manager, so it's a little unclear who would make any deals. Assistant GMs Al Avila and Scott Reid are handling the baseball operation for now.

More and more club officials say privately that they think the chances of contraction this winter grow increasingly remote every day. But we still wonder about the wisdom of this whole idea.

Loyal reader David Hallstrom broke down team attendance by decade. And the two teams that had the lowest attendance in the entire sport in the '80s were the Mariners and Indians. A decade later, they're model franchises.

If baseball had considered contraction earlier in the previous century, they might already have contracted franchises like the Braves (who were in the bottom two in attendance in the '30s and '00s) and Reds (who were in the bottom two in both the '40s and '50s).

In fact, if lack of attendance was the prime criterion for contraction (which it's not), the team Bud Selig should be contracting instead of Minnesota is the Brewers, who drew fewer paying customers from 1991-2000 (15,238,311) than any franchise except the Expos.

Here, for further reference, are the two teams with the worst attendance in every decade starting with 1901:

1901-1910: Senators, Braves
1911-1920: Senators, Braves
1921-1930: Braves, Phillies
1931-1940: Phillies, Browns
1941-1950: Reds, Browns
1951-1960: Reds, Senators
1961-1970: Senators, Padres
1971-1980: Twins, A's
1981-1990: Mariners , Indians
1991-2000: Brewers, Expos
2001: Marlins, Expos

Triviality
Mark McGwire retired with a career home-run ratio of one every 10.6 at-bats -- best of all time. He leaves behind only seven active hitters who have a ratio better than one every 15 at-bats (minimum: 2,500 AB). Can you name them? (Answer at bottom.)

Useless information dept.
Big Mac Drive Thru Division

There has been plenty of talk about the way Mark McGwire walked away from baseball off the field. But he also had a better exit on the field than probably even he realizes.

Big Mac hit 29 home runs in only 299 at-bats this year. And the Elias Sports Bureau reports that only two other players in history ever finished a career of 15 years or longer with that many homers: Ted Williams (29, in 1960) and Dave Kingman (35, in 1986).

How much more prolific was McGwire than even the greatest sluggers of modern times? It took him just one year to go from 400 career home runs to 500 -- and only three years to go from 300 to 500. Let�s put in perspective how incredible that is:

The previous National Leaguer to get to 500 homers -- Mike Schmidt -- needed three years to go from 400 to 500 and six years to go from 300 to 500. And it took the next guy to get to 500 -- Barry Bonds -- 2 � years to go from 400 to 500 and a couple of weeks shy of five years to go from 300 to 500.

Even though McGwire was hurt most of the last two seasons, he hit 254 home runs in the final five seasons of his career. Babe Ruth hit 149. Hank Aaron hit 116. Willie Mays hit 73.

And those 254 home runs in five years were more than Joe Torre (252), Robin Yount (251), Ted Simmons (248), Hack Wilson (244) and Roberto Clemente (240) hit in their entire careers.

Ah, but Big Mac was slightly less prolific at hitting triples. That memorable triple he hit on Aug. 2, 1999, was his first trifecta in 11 years, three presidential administrations and 4,618 at-bats (the largest gap between triples of anyone who ever played). In between McGwire�s triples, everyone else hit 9,666 triples, McGwire hit 434 home runs, and Lance Johnson hit 114 triples all by himself.

Amaze your pals with this factoid: Subtract McGwire�s 1,596 strikeouts, and he hit .354 in his career (actually .3542) when he made contact. Tony Gwynn's average when he made contact: .355 (actually.3548).

Finally, did you know that Fred McGriff, Harold Baines, Jose Canseco and Cal Ripken all hit their 300th career homers before McGwire did. And when Big Mac retired, they were all at least 100 career home runs behind him.

Rest Of Sport Division

Jason Giambi may not have become the 12th player in history to win back-to-back MVP awards, but he did become the 11th to finish first in the voting one year and second the next. Only Ted Williams (who lossed by a point to Joe DiMaggio in 1947) missed repeating by a smaller margin. Here are all the men in the 1-2 Club:

Jason Giambi, A's, 2000-01, 8 points behind winner
Terry Pendleton, Braves, 1991-92, 72 points behind
Barry Bonds, Pirates, 1990-91, 15 points behind
Don Mattingly, Yankees, 1985-86, 81 points behind
Yogi Berra, Yankees, 1955-56, 150 points behind
Stan Musial, Cardinals, 1948-49, 38 points behind
Ted Williams, Red Sox, 1945-47, 1 point behind
Hal Newhouser, Tigers, 1945-46, 27 points behind
Jimme Foxx, Red Sox, 1938-39, 90 points behind
Dizzy Dean, Cardinals, 1934-35, 9 points behind
Chuck Klein, Phillies, 1932-33, 29 points behind

After Derek Jeter's midnight homer in Game 4 of the World Series, he took the early lead in the Mr. November standings. But who turned out to be the true Mr. November? Would you believe Danny Bautista? Check out the Mr. November leader boards (counting the bottom of the 10th inning in Game 4, after the clock struck 12 a.m. and the calendar struck Nov. 1).

Hits
Tony Womack 6
Bautista 5
Steve Finley 5
Reggie Sanders 4

Batting average
Bautista .625 (5-for-8)
Finley .555 (5-for-9)
Sanders .400 (4-for-10)

Home runs
Finley 1
Rod Barajas 1
Alfonso Soriano 1
Jeter 1
Scott Brosius 1

RBI
Bautista 6
Womack 3
Luis Gonzalez 3

Runs scored
Damian Miller 3
Jay Bell 3
Soriano 2
Jeter 2
Womack 2
Sanders 2
Greg Colbrunn 2
Randy Johnson 2

Wins
Johnson 2

Strikeouts
Roger Clemens 10
Curt Schilling 9
Johnson 8

So Bautista wins the NVP award, and the Big Unit wins the Cy November award.

Another cool thing that happened in this World Series: When Johnson stalked in to pitch in relief in the seventh game, it marked the first time both leagues� Cy Young winners (Johnson and Clemens) had ever pitched in a Game 7 of any World Series.

In fact, since 1967 -- when separate Cys were first awarded in each league -- there had been only five previous World Series games of any shape or size in which both Cy Young winners appeared. The others:

1974, Game 3 -- Catfish Hunter, Mike Marshall
1969, Games 1 and 4 -- Tom Seaver, Mike Cuellar (who tied Denny McLain for the AL Cy)
1968, Games 1 and 4 -- McLain, Bob Gibson

Meanwhile, until Johnson relieved Schilling in the resumption of that crazy July 18 game in San Diego in which the light tower exploded, there had never been a game in history in which one 300-strikeout pitcher relieved another. Then it happened again in Game 7 of the World Series, of all places.

And as we observed in July, these guys are the greatest tag team since the Samoans. Their combined lines in those two games:

Schilling 9 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
Johnson 8 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 17 K

Counting the postseason, the Diamondbacks wound up winning 103 games this year. Schilling and Johnson won 52 of them all by themselves. The other 20 men who threw a pitch for them -- including Steve Finley, who mopped up for an inning Aug. 30 -- combined to win 51.

And who�s the all-time leader in postseason runs scored among players born in Alaska? Why, it�s Schilling, who scored a run in Game 3 of the NLCS. His euphoric reaction: �You mean Randy Kutcher never did it?�

Nope. No one born in Alaska had ever played in a postseason game before Schilling did it in 1993 and then this year.

Kutcher is the all-time Alaska leader in most offensive departments. But Schilling needs just seven hits to pass him next year to become the all-time regular season Alaskan hit king.

Craig Counsell wound up with half as many home runs during the postseason (two) as he hit during the regular season (four). Which led the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR�S David Vincent, to report that only five men ever hit more homers in one postseason than Counsell after a season in which they hit four home runs or fewer:

Batter Year Postseason Season Bert Campaneris 1973 3 4 Ted Kluszewski 1959 3 4 Willie McGee 1982 3 4 Johnny Mize 1952 3 4 Willie Randolph 1981 3 2

Last player before Counsell to hit two postseason homers after hitting four or fewer during the season: Darryl Strawberry in 1999.

Then there�s Terrence Long, who did something this October that Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris and Yogi Berra never did -- have a postseason multihomer game in Yankee Stadium.

OK, we�ll concede times are different, postseasons are different and even The Stadium is different. But a great note is a great note. So here, courtesy of the Sultan, are all the postseason multihomer games in The House That Terrence Long Didn�t Build:

(innings in parentheses)

World Series
Reggie Jackson, Yankees, 10/18/1977 -- 3 HR (4th, 5th, 8th innings)
Joe Collins, Yankees, 9/28/1955 -- 2 HR (4th, 6th)
Johnny Bench, Reds, 10/21/1976 -- 2 HR (4th, 9th)
Andruw Jones, Braves, 10/20/1996 -- 2 HR (2nd, 3rd)
Greg Vaughn, Padres, 10/17/1998 -- 2 HR (3rd, 5th)
Chad Curtis, Yankees, 10/26/1999 -- 2 HR (5th, 10th)

ALCS
George Brett, Royals, 10/6/1978 -- 3 HR (1st, 3rd, 5th)
Graig Nettles, Yankees, 10/13/1976 -- 2 HR (2nd, 9th)

Division Series
Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners, 10/3/1995 -- 2 HR (4th, 7th)
Juan Gonzalez, Rangers, 10/2/1996 -- 2 HR (2nd, 4th)
Terrence Long, A�s, 10/10/2001 -- 2 HR (4th, 8th)

Nobody has ever compared Pat Meares to Barry Bonds in many departments. But when you look at their walk totals, it�s especially easy to see why Bonds� initials are BB, not Meares�.

Meares walked 10 times all season -- in 270 at-bats. Bonds walked 10 times just in the last week of the season -- in 14 official at-bats.

Bonds walked 177 times this year. Meares has walked 150 times in his career (nine years), which now is up to 982 games and 3,560 plate appearances.

One of our favorite contributors, Doug Greenwald, reports that now that the Yankees have played the Diamondbacks in a World Series, the only National League teams the Yankees have never played in a meaningful game are the Astros and Rockies. And they could play the Rockies next year, assuming the interleague schedule still includes the AL East facing the NL West.

Lee Sinins, of www.baseball-encyclopedia.com, noticed that five different pitchers appeared in at least 30 games in each league this season. Only three pitchers had ever done that before in one season in the history of baseball. You can thank John Rocker. The complete list:

Jim Poole, 1996 -- Indians 32, Giants 35
Jose Mesa, 1998 -- Indians 44, Giants 32
Dan Plesac, 1999 -- BlueJays 30, Diamondbacks 34
Steve Karsay, 2001 -- Indians 31, Braves 43
Steve Reed, 2001 -- Indians 31, Braves 39
John Rocker, 2001 -- Braves 38, Indians 30
Jay Witasick, 2001 -- Padres 32, Yankees 31
Mark Wohlers, 2001 -- Reds 31, Yankees 30

November box score line of the month
That Team France bullpen had a little trouble handling the Team USA lanceurs in a messy little 17-1 loss last week in the 2001 World Cup. The bullpen�s combined �line au monticule�:

7 IP, 18 H, 17 R, 15 ER, 10 BB, 2 K.

The culprits responsible:

Remy Lejeune 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
John Carlson 2 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
Bori Rothermundt 1 1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Pascal Sanvoisin 1/3 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
Jean Michelle Mayeur 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Jean Philip Miet 1/3 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 K
Anthony Piquet 2/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Humor of the week

Headline this week in the online humor site, the "Ironic Times":

Judge Orders Twins to
Play Next Year
Also orders them to bunt, hit-and-run more.

From Jay Leno:

"You know what the bounty is on bin Laden? $25 million. It sounds like a lot -- until you realize the Texas Rangers paid $250 million to get Alex Rodriguez."

Trivia answer
Barry Bonds (14.0), Manny Ramirez (14.4), Sammy Sosa (14.4), Ken Griffey Jr. (14.6), Juan Gonzalez (14.7), Mike Piazza (14.8) and Jim Thome (14.8).

Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

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