So what's up with this?

Agents roamed the winter-meetings lobbies this week muttering many a word of frustration, including the dreaded "C" word (collusion). But that's way too simple. And their more enlightened peers know it.

"Basically, it's a whole confluence of circumstances," said longtime agent Adam Katz, who wins our much-coveted first-to-work-confluence-into-a-baseball-conversation award. "It's everything from Sept. 11 to the national recession to the labor problem to the fact that certain teams don't have money to spend right now. So matching up needs is tough.

"We've got maybe 15 free agents who were projected as $7 million-to-$12 million guys -- and only six seats. So it's a much tougher market."

Look at the 15 members at the top of this class: Giambi, Barry Bonds, Smoltz, Chan Ho Park, Schmidt, Aaron Sele, Isringhausen, Tino Martinez, Bret Boone, Johnny Damon, Juan Gonzalez, Moises Alou, Hideo Nomo, John Burkett and either Jeff Shaw or Terry Adams (you pick).

In a normal winter, virtually all of them would have jobs by now. This winter, they barely have a decent offer.

It was hard not to notice all the teams that chose to fill their needs this week via trades instead of signings. The Padres and Dodgers traded for young shortstops. The Cubs traded for Alex Gonzalez -- rather than sign a Rey Sanchez or Gutierrez. The Mets traded for Roberto Alomar rather than sign Boone. The Mariners traded for a third baseman (Jeff Cirillo) rather than re-sign David Bell.

That clearly seems to be part of an organized management strategy. But is that fishy, or is it just better economics?

"Those trades -- those are money moves," Katz said. "Everyone is under such budgetary constraints that if you're the Mets, instead of signing Bret Boone for X amount of dollars, you move Matt Lawton at $6 million and get Robbie Alomar at $8 million. That's only a $2 million move. That's the kind of atmosphere we're operating in now."

And the fact is, these teams are allowed to do that -- unless, of course, it's a grand conspiracy instead of just a late-breaking attack of fiscal common sense.

"We've been living in a fantasy world for years," said one agent. "We've gotten used to salaries and price tags that do nothing but go up every year. Two years ago, a Moises Alou would have gotten $8 million a year. Last year, he would have gotten $10 million. This year, in a normal year, you'd have expected him to get $12 or $13 million. But there's no law that says salaries have to go up every year. So this year, he might have to settle for $8 million or $9 million."

At the winter meetings, we just spent the week listening to GMs trading for players and saying, "We liked this guy more than that free agent."

We spent the week hearing GMs say they don't have the money in the budget to spend on free agents they've had in other years.

We've spent the week hearing GMs saying, "This guy's not worth X," and, "That guy's not worth Y."

It's all logical talk, taken separately. When you hear it over and over, it makes many impartial observers curious. If it seems as if something more than isolated individual decisions is going on, that's because it obviously is. Clearly, there has been conversation among club executives and baseball officials about showing more restraint and more patience. Clearly, clubs were told to tune their TVs to CSPAN last week when the commissioner was hauling out his red-ink pie charts.

Clearly, there finally has been an effort made to enforce the long-ignored "60-40 rule," which is supposed to require teams to spend only a fiscally prudent percentage of the money they're taking in.

But it's our feeling that in and of itself, that does not constitute collusion.

After listening to owners complain for years about salaries and hearing most people tell them it's their own fault, how do we blame them for finally trying to do something about it? And what more logical winter to do it than this one, for all the reasons we've outlined earlier?

"I'm not a labor lawyer," Katz said, "so I'll leave that to them. But if certain owners want to live within budgetary restraints because of this particular economic climate, then so be it. As long as they're free and fair and equitable and there's no clandestine drag on salaries, then fine. If there is, there is -- and it will be handled (by the union). If there isn't, there isn't -- and we will manage.

"So my philosophy is, we'll just play this hand and do the best we can. I'm not frustrated. I'm not upset. It just is what it is. So I'm forced to live with it and be pragmatic and focused on the task at hand -- which is to get people the best jobs and the best economic package I can. I'm not concerned with the other stuff right now. I've got to get people jobs."

And right now, there are more than 100 free agents with no jobs and heads full of questions. We know that when spring training starts in two months, the unemployment rate won't be an issue. But that will be the time to make sure the answer to all those questions is reasonable enough to put this contraction talk to rest.

Miscellaneous rumblings

Because that could have forced the Mariners to pay Boone as much as $12 million if he won his case (as opposed to the $7 million or $8 million they could negotiate in a long-term deal), they immediately sweetened their offer.

But this strategy won't work for everyone.

Barry Bonds' agent, Scott Boras, suddenly began making the same noises after negotiations with the Giants stalled, which seemed like a great idea. After all, who knows what Bonds could make in an arbitration hearing? Maybe $26 million? Maybe $30 million?

The Giants, however, had an answer that called Boras' bluff. They reportedly told him that if he accepted the arbitration offer, they would simply respond by dumping all their higher-salaried players to stay within their budget. And then Bonds would find himself playing with eight rookies around him.

Which only proves that under the right circumstances, both sides can play that leverage game.

Starting pitchers: Chan Ho Park, Aaron Sele, Hideo Nomo, John Burkett, Terry Adams, Albie Lopez, Dave Burba, David Cone, Ismael Valdes, James Baldwin and a physically questionable Pedro Astacio.

Relief pitchers: Jeff Shaw, Mike Williams, Todd Jones, Mark Wohlers, Steve Reed, Mike Jackson, Rudy Seanez, Ricky Bottalico.

Catchers: Tony Eusebio, Eddie Perez, Carlos Hernandez, Scott Servais, Todd Pratt.

First basemen: Tino Martinez, Andres Galarraga, Ron Coomer.

Middle Infielders: Bret Boone, Rey Sanchez, Eric Young, Luis Alicea, Mike Lansing, Keith Lockhart, Gary DiSarcina, F.P. Santangelo, Tim Bogar, Jeff Frye, Quilvio Veras, Randy Velarde.

Third basemen: David Bell, John Valentin, Ed Sprague.

Outfielders: Juan Gonzalez, Johnny Damon, Moises Alou, Kenny Lofton, Chuck Knoblauch, Reggie Sanders, Danny Bautista, Matt Stairs, Troy O'Leary, Dante Bichette, Ron Gant, Jay Buhner, Al Martin, Matt Stairs, Bernard Gilkey, Ruben Sierra.

DHs: Jose Canseco, Harold Baines.

Seth and Sam Levinson got both Marty Cordova and Rondell White signed. Katz, Tom Reich and Craig Landis found quick deals for Javy Lopez, Delino DeShields and Jose Vizcaino.

Dan Horwits and Jeff Borris got Jason Isringhausen, David Weathers and Brady Andeson done. Larry Reynolds moved fast on Brian Hunter and aggressively on Ricky Gutierrez. Alan and Randy Hendricks got four free agents jobs: Steve Karsay, Jason Schmidt, Norm Charlton and Orlando Merced.

This is one winter when good things will not necessarily come to those who wait.

Because the Phillies were talking about trading him mostly for younger players, that could mean as much as $6 million they probably won't be permitted by ownership to spend on adding other players this winter. And that could be the difference between signing an impact starting pitcher such as Sele, versus a roll-the-dice starter such as Lopez.

Of course, it's possible ownership could see the light and realize it has a one-year window to win with Rolen around -- which would only enhance their ability to keep him. But early indications are that Phillies executives have been told the budget is the budget, and there's only so much room to maneuver.

Then, however, the Fish did go out and make a trade (unloading pitcher Jesus Sanchez's salary on the Cubs). But sources said that as soon as the club's sale to Jeffrey Loria is complete, virtually their entire front office and staff will essentially become free agents -- while Loria brings almost the entire front office and staff of the Expos with him to Florida. Very bizarre.

Asked if he tried to negotiate any at-bats into his contract, he replied: "No. I don't want any. I prefer to keep my embarrassing moments to a minimum."

After the Blue Jays and Dodgers completed their four-player trade involving Paul Quantrill, Cesar Izturis, Luke Prokopec and Chad Ricketts, Evans joked: "J.P. and I have talked about a number of things the last couple of weeks -- from moving our families to moving players."

"There had to be a Canadian," Ricciardi quipped. "I also asked them to throw in a case of Labatt's."

Triviality
Can you name the only player in baseball to take part in each of the last 12 All-Star Games? (Answer at bottom.)

Useless information dept.

Danys Biaz, Indians (.188 vs. LHs, .194 vs. RHs)
Chad Fox, Brewers (.158, .197)
Flash Gordon, Cubs (.188, .188)
Byung-hyun Kim, Diamondbacks (.199, .151)
Jeff Nelson, Mariners (.167, .119)
Juan Moreno, Rangers (.171, .135)
Arthur Rhodes, Mariners (.198, .179)
John Riedling,Reds (.185, .188)
Rudy Seanez, Padres-Braves (.151, .197)

With the help of the Sultan of Swat Stats, David Vincent, Blake determined that they blew away the old record of 152, shared by the '97 Mariners (who hit an AL-record 264 homers for the year) and the 2000 Astros (who hit an NL-record 249 that year).

So 61.7 percent of the Rangers' 246 homers this year were solos, compared to 57.6 percent for the '97 Mariners and 61.0 percent for the 2000 Astros. In case you were wondering.