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| Monday, September 30 Pick a winner? The field is wide open By Jayson Stark ESPN.com |
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Welcome to the postseason that even Nostradamus would have a hard time picking. "I don't know that there's a dominant team in either league," says Braves GM John Schuerholz.
"It should be real interesting," says Pirates GM Dave Littlefield.
"You can make a real good case for every one of these teams," says an American League executive. "And you can find a wart for every team."
So welcome, gang, to the most unpredictable baseball postseason in years. And by "years," we mean: since George Steinbrenner completed secret negotiations in 1998 to purchase exclusive rights to playing in the World Series. OK, so after four straight years of watching the Yankees practically will themselves into the Series, why should anyone be skeptical enough to think that won't happen again? Well, here's why:
So ... "They're beatable," says one AL scout, "for two reasons -- inconsistent starting pitching and the health of Rivera."
But if the bad news for the Yankees is that they're beatable, the good news is, every team is beatable. The A's still haven't won a postseason series since 1990. The Angels haven't won a playoff series in franchise history -- and have no position players who have ever played in a playoff game. The Twins had the highest ERA of any of the playoff teams.
And over in the National League ... The Diamondbacks are a M*A*S*H* unit. The Braves scored 111 fewer runs than Arizona. The Cardinals have starting-pitching issues. And the bottom of the Giants' order was so unproductive, Barry Bonds got on base 356 times (most since Babe Ruth) and didn't even lead the league in runs scored.
So ...
"I think the American League is as wide-open as it's ever been," says Braves third baseman Chipper Jones. "And over here (in the NL), it's always a free-for-all."
As easy as it is to find reasons why any of these teams won't win, though, it's just as easy to find compelling reasons why any of them could.
The Diamondbacks still have that two-headed Johnson-Schilling monster -- and can start those two in four of five games in the Division Series. The Braves have the best closer they've ever brought to October (Mr. John Smoltz). The Cardinals (who have won 11 of 13, 21 of 25 and 38 of their last 52 games) have that Team On A Mission look. And the Giants have not just Barry, but a team that hit the most home runs in its league while allowing the fewest.
The A's, meanwhile, went 41 games over .500 when their Hudson-Mulder-Zito triumvirate started. The Twins are human web gems who committed the fewest errors in either league.
No team in the major leagues, believe it or not, outscored its opponents by more runs than the Angels (207). And the Yankees are still The Yankees, with home-field advantage in all three rounds this time.
"What we've got," Schuerholz says, "are a number of talented, very competitive teams -- all of whom give the impression that, if they play their best baseball, are very capable of beating anybody."
And they could. So how should we go about trying to predict this wild Octoberfest? We're warning you. It isn't as easy as Bud's Blue Ribbon Panel makes it out to be.
Does the best team normally win?
"Baseball's unique," says one AL executive. "For five months, we play with 25 guys. For one month (September), we play with up to 40. And then in the playoffs, we basically play with about 16. With all of the off days, depth becomes a nonessential element. ... You win 100 games during a regular season with depth. You win in the playoffs with dominant performances from a small group of guys."
That small group typically has names like Johnson and Schilling, Clemens and Rivera, or Glavine and Smoltz. (More on that later.) But baseball, by its nature, is flukier than the other sports. So the baseball playoffs also tend to be flukier.
"No matter how good you are," says Chipper, "momentum is a tremendous force in October. Momentum can swing on any one pitch, any one swing of the bat. And there's no better example of that than Jim Leyritz. We had that ('96) World Series in hand. And with that one swing (a game-tying three-run homer), it got [the Yankees] back on track."
Or it can be one swing the other way. The Indians still talk about the 1998 ALCS, when they held a 2-games-to-1 lead on the Yankees and Jim Thome missed a first-inning grand slam in Game 4 by two feet. Would the Yankees still have won that year if Thome's ball had gone out? We'll never know.
"All I know is that there's a small margin between winning and losing these things," says Braves manager Bobby Cox. "If any little thing goes the wrong way at the wrong time, you're gonna lose."
Do the 100-game winners always win?
But over the last seven years, under the current format, nine 100-game winners reached the playoffs and only the '98 Yankees won the World Series. Three of the other eight lost in the first round (to teams that won 95, 97 and 98 games). Three more lost in the LCS (to teams that won 92, 95 and 98 games). And the other two (the '95 Indians and '99 Braves) lost in the World Series, to Marlins and Yankees teams that won 10 and five fewer games, respectively, than they did.
Which suggests, again, that the elements that win you 100 games from April to September aren't always the elements that come into play in October.
"I'm not complaining, and I'm not whining about it," says Schuerholz, who has seen four 100-win Braves teams not win the World Series. "But our postseason is more prone to vagaries than the other postseasons, especially with that first series being as short as it is. There's always the possibility that something bizarre could happen in that short a series that twists the tables of fate, so that the team that's supposed to be the most talented doesn't win."
But it isn't just the first round where those vagaries show up. Even the best-of-7 series doesn't bear much resemblance to baseball's fabled "long haul."
"Your season can be decided by one bad week," Schuerholz says. "And if that bad week happens at the wrong time, that's just bad luck."
That's why we still find ourselves asking what might have happened if ... if Jeremy Giambi had slid into home last October ... if Armando Benitez hadn't blown a save in Game 1 of the 2000 Subway Series ... if Greg Maddux and John Rocker had held a one-run lead for six more outs in Game 1 in the '99 Series ... if Tony Fernandez had just caught that groundball by Craig Counsell in Game 7 in '97.
If, if, if ... "If you flip a coin 162 times," says one AL executive, "you'll come pretty close to 81-81. If you flip it five times, or even seven times, anything can happen."
Does the team with the dominant starters always win?
"I'm just thankful the Red Sox didn't get in," said a club official from one AL playoff team, "because Pedro and Derek Lowe could completely dominate a series."
Postseason history is packed with examples of teams that have ridden two dominant starters all the way down the parade route: Koufax and Drysdale. Catfish Hunter and Ken Holtzman. Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven. Or, for that matter, one dominant starter (Jack Morris, Orel Hershiser, Bob Gibson) sometimes does it.
But since that third round was added to the postseason in 1995, it has gotten harder and harder for one, or even two starters, to win their team a Division Series, an LCS and a World Series all by themselves.
Schilling and Johnson may have done it last year. But the moral of the Yankees' story these last six years is that starting-pitching depth is much more likely to surface in a three-round postseason than it was under the previous formats.
In that run, the Yankees have been four-deep. And they beat teams featuring the Mulder-Hudson-Zito and Glavine-Maddux-Smoltz threesomes, a Freddy Garcia-Jamie Moyer twosome and Pedro Martinez, Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina onesomes.
So while, in theory, this may appear to be one of the most inconsistent rotations the Yankees have brought into any recent postseason (they're fifth in starters' ERA), that just might be irrelevant.
"You can count on this," says one American League GM. "The Yankees' veterans will have a little more (to reach back on) when October comes."
Does the wild card ever win?
Wild cards actually have proven dangerous in the first round. They've won six of 14 series -- and both wild cards last year (the Cardinals and A's) took the Division Series to Game 5 before losing on the road.
But only two wild cards (the '97 Marlins and 200 Mets) have won an LCS. And just those '97 Marlins have won the World Series.
Both wild cards this year play teams that won over 100 games in the first round (Angels vs. Yankees, Giants vs. Braves). The only wild card that has ever upset a 100-win team in the first round is the '99 Mets (over Arizona). And the only wild-card team that has ever won a sudden-death game on the road was the '99 Red Sox (in Cleveland).
Does the team with best closer win?
Rivera in Arizona and Byung-Hyun Kim at Yankee Stadium last year. Benitez in Game 1, 2000. Trevor Hoffman in Game 3, 1998. Jose Mesa in Game 7, 1997. Mark Wohlers in The Leyritz Game in 1996.
On the other hand, you have to look no further than Rivera's postseason numbers (23 straight saves before Game 7) to understand that if your closer can just bring a lead home, you're probably going to win.
So the uncertainty revolving around Rivera this October -- especially with such dominating closers as Troy Percival, Smoltz and Robb Nen in the field -- makes this Octoberfest particularly difficult to handicap.
"Rivera has to be healthy," says one AL GM, "for the Yankees to win."
But is he? Will they? For the first time ever, we don't know. So put your seat belts in the full upright and locked position. A particularly wild ride on the October roller coaster is ready to begin.
"I think we can apply that old bromide about how, on any given day or in any given series, any team can win," Schuerholz says. "I really think anything can happen." Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. |
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