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| Wednesday, April 30 Updated: May 2, 12:12 PM ET Millwood eyeing big-money deal this offseason By Jayson Stark ESPN.com |
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The first question people in Philadelphia asked after Kevin Millwood's no-hitter was: "How could the Braves have ever traded that guy?" The second question was: "What are the odds the Phillies can keep him after this year." Well, as happy as Millwood seems to be, we'd still set those odds at well below 50-50. Phillies GM Ed Wade says, "We'll do our best to get it done. He likes being with us, and we know that. It's just a case of figuring out the economics. The problem is: Whose economics?"
And the scary answer to that question, for the Phillies, is: Scott Boras' economics, at least for now. Boras has been telling GMs all over the game that he expects next winter's free-agent market to rebound to 2000-01, or at least 2001-02 levels. So if that's the case, he would figure to set Millwood's price tag at Chan Ho Park's level (five years, $65 million) -- if not higher. But even Boras' fellow agents aren't optimistic enough to think any pitcher -- including Greg Maddux -- could approach those dollars. "I don't see Kevin Millwood getting Chan Ho numbers," says one prominent agent. "If you look at last winter, he's a guy who could reasonably expect to get around $10 million a year for three or four years. That was Kevin Appier money two years ago. But it was Tom Glavine money this winter." Glavine collected three years, $35 million from the Mets. On one hand, he's nine years older than Millwood. On the other, he owns two more Cy Youngs and five more 20-win seasons than Millwood. But now Millwood has a no-hitter on his resume, which Glavine doesn't have. And over the last 11 months, Millwood has certainly been the better pitcher (19-4, 2.83 since last June 1, versus 13-11, 3.75 for Glavine). No one can make those numbers sing better than Boras. So in a market with just four top-of-the-line starting pitchers (Millwood, Greg Maddux, Bartolo Colon, Andy Pettitte), he'll be looking for serious dollars. The Phillies, on the other hand, have their own issues. By 2007 (or four years into a prospective Millwood contract), they'll have Jim Thome making $14 million, Bobby Abreu at $15 million and Pat Burrell at $13 million. So, for the sake of flexibility, they'd obviously prefer a three-year deal. They'd also prefer to sign Millwood before he ever gets out on the market -- ideally while he's riding the high of that no-hit love affair. But Boras, who prefers all his clients to test the market, isn't likely to bite. So for now, the Phillies will stay laid-back on this front.
"I don't think we'll try to use this as any type of springboard, one way or the other," Wade says.
"If they reach .500, he won't be upset. He'll be thrilled," says one of Sweeney's closest friends. "Mike is one of those people who would choose loyalty over winning. That's the kind of person he is. Loyalty, honor, relationships, commitment and effort weigh more heavily in his life than winning." Sweeney didn't ask his agents, Seth and Sam Levinson, to negotiate that clause so he could escape Kansas City. He wanted it in there because he wanted to win in Kansas City. The "out" clause was just a way of insuring that Royals management would do what it promised -- and meet him halfway. "After he signed the contract," Sweeney's friend says, "Mike told (vice president of baseball operations) George Brett and (general manager) Allard Baird that his dream was to take the entire organization, put it on his back and climb the mountain to success. That clause is only in there to hold the Glass family (ownership) to its word that it would do what was necessary to help climb that mountain."
"Just look at last winter," says one NL manager. "(The Expos) were trying to trade Colon, but the guy everybody really wanted was Javier Vazquez. He's not just younger. He's better than Colon." Colon has had only one bad start so far. But he's now up to 35 straight starts without a double-figure strikeout game. And it continues to puzzle outsiders how his fastball comes and goes. "He just cruises along, throwing 91-92-93," says one scout. "Then all of a sudden, he'll reach back and throw one like he can -- at 97-98. He just looks very happy throwing his sinker. But that doesn't make him a dominating guy."
Bullpen Rumblings Best: 1. Dodgers, 2. Angels, 3. Braves, 4. Orioles, 5. Royals. Worst: 1. Red Sox, 2. Blue Jays, 3. Cardinals, 4. Rockies, 5. Padres. Should be better than they've pitched: 1. Mariners, 2. Mets. And now the reviews:
Dodgers: "By far the best. ... The closer (Eric Gagne) is about perfect. ... Guillermo Mota is throwing 98 mph like it's nothing. ... Tom Martin is throwing really well." Angels: "One of the most consistent closers out there (Troy Percival). ... Brendan Donnelly has been outstanding again. ... Really good from the right side. ... They win because of their bullpen, because their starters are nothing special." Braves: "With (John) Smoltz as the anchor, any 'pen would be good." Orioles: "They don't get much credit, because they don't win enough. But you pair the two left-handers (Buddy Groom, B.J. Ryan) and the right-handers (Jorge Julio, Willis Roberts), and that's a place teams will look to deal for bullpen help come July." Red Sox: "The big problem is, they don't have anybody who has really done the job at the end of the game in the pennant race." Blue Jays: "The set-up guys can't get the ball to (Kelvim) Escobar -- and he can be an experience himself." Cardinals: "Man, they're floundering. ... Two of those guys (Cal Eldred, Russ Springer) didn't even pitch last year. Steve Kline's not in the right role. The closer (Jason Isringhausen) is out. ... Not very good." Padres: "Without Trevor Hoffman, a real crap shoot."
Miscellaneous Rumblings Look at the early schedules of the eight teams that traditionally lead the attendance standings:
Yankees: 9 of first 25 games at home So six of those eight clubs had played many more road games than home games when that first, dire attendance report came out. That might not account for the entire five-percent drop. But we bet it's close.
He non-tendered his only All-Star last year (Robert Fick). He didn't re-sign his best reliever (Juan Acevedo). And he traded his leading hitter (Randall Simon) and best starting pitcher (Mark Redman) for a miniscule return. All the Tigers have to show for the four of them now is one player currently in the big leagues -- pitcher Gary Knotts (obtained from Florida for Redman). But Dombrowski says there were unique circumstances in all four cases.
He said Fick turned down an offer that was double the deal he later took from Atlanta (one year, $1 million). And Simon, now in Pittsburgh, was "a DH for us" who would have had to fight Dean Palmer, Dmitri Young and Carlos Pena for playing time, Dombrowski says. The GM says Acevedo (now a Yankee) was "looking for closer dollars" even though he knew that if he returned to Detroit, he would have gone back to setting up for Matt Anderson, who was returning from surgery. And in Redman's case, "we were looking to get more young players in here." "We won 55 games last year with those players," Dombrowski says. "We finished in last place. So sometimes, you just need to make changes based on where you are as an organization." Nevertheless, Acevedo has more saves (five) than Anderson (three). Redman has as one more win than the Tigers' whole rotation (two). Simon (two HR, 13 RBI) would lead the Tigers in RBI. And Fick was hitting .323, with two homers, when he hurt his shoulder two weeks into the seeason.
"He don't miss anything," says Marquis Grissom, who once played for Alou in Montreal. "Any time the other team makes a mistake, he's right on top of it. There's a lot of knowledge in that man. Which comes from 20 years of playing baseball and 30 years of managing. You're talking 50 years in baseball. "He'll let you know what it takes to be a baseball player. He wants you to respect the game, and he watches you, and as soon as he thinks you're taking it for granted, he'll let you know. And you better listen. He's still built like he can whup your behind, too."
"His last three pitches to close out one of the games in St. Louis were 99-98-100 (mph)," says GM Joe Garagiola Jr. "And he had two duels, with Albert Pujols and Mike Piazza, in which he went hard-hard for the first two strikes, then dropped curve balls on them for strike three, and all they could do was take them. When you're looking 97-100 (mph), and you get a top-to-bottom curve ball in that situation, it's devastating." Garagiola thinks Mantei's fight back from surgery has brought him a new "maturation" and "a calmness." But the big thing is, "the ball's exploding out of his hand."
Kim, despite his 1-4 record, had ripped off three straight sensational starts before scuffling Tuesday night. But the big bonanza is that starting allows him four days between starts to pursue his true passion -- sleeping. "The great thing now is, he can really arrange his sleep a lot more regularly," Garagiola laughs. "He won't have to worry about getting those pesky calls in the bullpen to wake him up anymore."
So one scouting director says: "That has the makings of one of the better drafts in the last 15-20 years, just with that group alone." Here's a rundown of that fivesome, as reviewed by a longtime NL scout: Mark Prior, Cubs RHP (No. 2 overall): "Could be the pitcher in this decade." Mark Teixeira, Rangers 3B (No. 5 overall): "Should be a star -- at least with the bat." Mauer, Twins C (No. 1 overall): "May be the best player in the whole draft." Floyd, Phillies RHP (No. 4 overall): "He's got 'star' written all over him." Brazelton, Devil Rays RHP (No. 3 overall): "He's the one guy in that group who may not be headed for stardom. Might not have enough command or stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation guy." Also in this draft, Oakland took Jeremy Bonderman (now with Detroit) at the back end of the first round. The Giants got Jesse Foppert with the 74th overall pick. And the Yankees picked Jason Arnold (currently spinning a sub-1.00 ERA in the Toronto system) with the 63rd overall pick. Not too bad.
Aquilino Lopez has rung up 17 strikeouts in 12 innings for Toronto. D.J. Carrasco has been a force in the Royals' bullpen (12 1/3 IP, 7 H, 12 K). And all three of the Tigers' Rule 5-ers look like keepers -- Wilfredo Ledezma (.175 opponent avg.), Chris Spurling (4.00 ERA) and Matt Roney (3.55 ERA).
"I'd advise him to go play football," says one scout who has seen Henson extensively, "because he's a better football player than he is a baseball player, and he'll have more success in football. Yeah, he was rushed. And he could use that as an excuse early in his career. But he's made absolutely no adjustments. Don't get me wrong. He's a kid I root for. But he's not near the player they're paying for."
"They're not better because their talent is better," says one AL scout. "They're better because of him, because of his organizational abilities and his knowledge of how to get an entire 25-man roster going. You watch them, and he handles the bullpen well. He's sitting the kids against tough pitching. He's getting a lot of guys playing time. I like everything he's done so far."
"It's the same group," the scout says. "And they're old. And it's April. So the test for them isn't April. It's time."
"You keep waiting for him to have that big, Cy Young-type year -- and this could be it," says one scout. "What makes him so tough is that there's no pattern to him. He'll throw any pitch, with a change of velocity, at any time in the count. With a five-run lead, to the No. 9 hitter, he'll still throw a 2-and-0 cutter. "Now he's showing different looks on right-handed hitters, especially with two strikes, dropping down and throwing that breaking ball. There's no way to guess on him, because you've only got a 1-in-6 chance of being right."
On June 3, the Bisbee-Douglass Copper Kings, of the Arizona-Mexico League, will hold Ted Williams Night. First 500 fans get a Popsicle. Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. |
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