The Numbers

2001 record: 93-69, .574 (4th overall) 2001 expected record*: 89-73 Runs scored: 847, 2nd in NL Runs allowed: 769, 10th in NL: Run differential: +78 (7th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.67, 10th in NL Bullpen ERA: 3.83, 3rd in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $60.4 million (17th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $13.7 million (20th overall) Attendance: 2.904 million (9th overall) 3-year record: 262-224, .539 (10th overall) 5-year record: 448-362, .553 (7th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right?
The Astros rebounded from a 90-loss season to win their fourth NL Central title in five years (beating out the Cardinals in the tiebreaker). Lance Berkman emerged as one of the best hitters in the NL; his 1.051 OPS was sixth in the league. Billy Wagner and Craig Biggio returned from injuries to be productive players. Rookie Roy Oswalt joined the rotation in June and was one of the NL's top pitchers the rest of the way (he finished 14-3, 2.73 ERA).

What went wrong
For the fourth time in five years, the Astros were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, getting swept by the Braves (and scoring just six runs). Oswalt and Pedro Astacio both came down with injuries in September and couldn't pitch in the postseason. Richard Hidalgo dropped from .314 and 44 HRs to .275 and 19 home runs. Larry Dierker was fired as manager at season's end.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Bringing in Mike Jackson instead of Octavio Dotel with a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the playoffs. Dotel was much better during the season, but Dierker went to the veteran and Jackson surrendered the lead.

2. Moving Dotel to the bullpen. He began the year in the rotation, but after four starts went to the pen where he excelled with a 1.93 ERA and 128 K's in 84 innings.

3. Trading Jose Lima. The former 20-game winner was 1-2 with a 7.30 in nine starts when dealt to Detroit for Dave Mlicki, who wasn't great (5.09 ERA), but was at least adequate for the back-end of the rotation.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. How good will the young starters be? Oswalt and Wade Miller must show they can again be a top 1-2 punch and remain healthy at the same time. Tim Redding and/or Carlos Hernandez will have to produce in the rotation as well.

2. Can Daryle Ward replace Moises Alou's bat? Ward has shown 35-HR potential and will finally be given a chance to play every day.

3. How will new manager Jimy Williams change things up? Dierker may have lost his team at the end, but you can't argue with four division titles in five years. Williams likes to use his bench, but Brian Hunter and Jose Vizcaino are offensive liabilities if they get too many at-bats.

Stats Corner
Jeff Bagwell (above) is now 8-for-46 (.174) with no extra-base hits in his postseason career. Craig Biggio is 7-for-54 (.130) with one double. The Astros went 29-23 in one-run games after going 15-31 in 2000. Don't just credit Enron Field for Lance Berkman's explosion. He hit .336 with 13 homers at home and .327 with 21 homers on the road.

Can expect to play better
Richard Hidalgo is likely to strike a happy medium between his monster 2000 season and lackluster 2001 campaign.

Can expect to play worse
Oswalt went 14-3, which topped the NL in winning percentage, and posted a 2.73 ERA in cozy Enron Field, no easy feat to repeat. He's unlikely to pitch that well in 2002. Then again, he could win the Cy Young Award.

Projected lineup
2B Craig Biggio
SS Julio Lugo
1B Jeff Bagwell
RF Lance Berkman
CF Richard Hidalgo
LF Daryle Ward
3B Morgan Ensberg
C Brad Ausmus / Gregg Zaun

Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Wade Miller
Shane Reynolds
Dave Mlicki
Tim Redding / Carlos Hernandez

Closer
Billy Wagner

A closer look
After eight appearances in the bullpen, Roy Oswalt made his first major-league start on June 2 in Houston against the Dodgers. He pitched very well: six innings, two hits, one run, no walks and four strikeouts. The Astros won and Oswalt got the victory.

Oswalt was magnificent the rest of the way and Larry Dierker deserves credit for handling him carefully, as he averaged 93 pitchers per start and went over 115 pitches just twice (with a high of 125). However, he strained his groin pitching in the first game back after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and unfortunately for the Astros, it sidelined Oswalt for the postseason.

How good will Oswalt be? The most important indicator of future success for a young pitcher is strikeout rate and Oswalt fanned 144 in 141.2 innings, a rate of 9.15 per nine innings that would have trailed only Randy Johnson, Kerry Wood, Curt Schilling and Hideo Nomo among major-league starters (Oswalt didn't have the 162 innings to qualify). Combined with great control (just 24 walks) and strong mechanics, Oswalt should be one of baseball's top pitchers over the next 10 years if he stays healthy.

On the other hand, pitchers are as unpredictable as Carl Everett's behavior. Look at the lists of rookie starters who have finished in the top five in the Rookie of the Year voting since 1990:

1990: Kevin Appier (3), Kevin Tapani (5), John Burkett (4), Mike Harkey (5)
1991: Juan Guzman (2), Rich DeLucia (5)
1992: Dave Fleming (3), Cal Eldred (4), Tim Wakefield (3), Donovan Osborne (5)
1993: Jason Bere (2), Aaron Sele (3)
1994: Steve Trachsel (4), Joey Hamilton (5)
1995: Andy Pettitte (5), Hideo Nomo (1), Jason Isringhausen (4)
1996: James Baldwin (2), Rocky Coppinger (4), Jose Rosado (4)
1997: Jason Dickson (3), Jaret Wright (5), Livan Hernandez (2), Matt Morris (2)
1998: Rolando Arrojo (2), Orlando Hernandez (4), Sidney Ponson (5), Kerry Wood (1)
1999: Freddy Garcia (2), Tim Hudson (5), Kris Benson (4)
2000: Rick Ankiel (2)
2001: C.C. Sabathia (2), Roy Oswalt (2), Bud Smith (4)

Of the 32 pitchers listed prior to the 2001 group, they combined for just four 20-win seasons, by John Burkett in 1993, Andy Pettitte in 1996, Tim Hudson in 2000 and Matt Morris in 2001.

But not many pitchers win 20 games anyway. Less impressively, they have combined for just 20 All-Star seasons (including three as rookies and one as a reliever). Only four of the pitchers have made as many as two All-Star appearances (Burkett, Pettitte, Aaron Sele and Jose Rosado with two apiece).

Oswalt isn't directly comparable to those four. Like them, he's a control pitcher, but his strikeout rate was much higher. And of the pitchers with the highest strikeout rates as rookies -- Kerry Wood, Hideo Nomo, Rick Ankiel, Jason Bere -- none could come close to matching Oswalt's control.

The closest match for Oswalt is Tim Hudson: a short right-hander with big guts and great stuff. Both turned 24 during their rookie seasons. Check their rookie stats:

         IP     H   HR  BB  BB/9   SO  K/9   ERA
Hudson  136.1  121   8  62   4.1  132  8.7  3.23
Oswalt  141.2  126  13  24   1.5  144  9.2  2.73

Oswalt's obvious advantage is his pinpoint control, though Hudson lowered his walk rate to 2.7 per nine innings in 2001. More importantly, Hudson has remained healthy. The A's -- like the Astros -- are one of the smartest organizations in the game. Hopefully, they'll follow Oakland's usage pattern with Hudson, who pitched 202 innings in his second season and was bumped up to 235 last season.

Jimy Williams will be under a lot of pressure to give Oswalt as many innings as possible. Let's hope he's careful and doesn't push the 24-year-old too much in his first full season.

David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.