The Numbers

2001 record: 80-82, .494 (17th overall) 2001 expected record*: 82-80 Runs scored: 767, 9th in AL Runs allowed: 753, 6th in AL Run differential: +14 (14th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.40, 5th in AL Bullpen ERA: 4.07, 6th in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $75.8 million (10th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $14.5 million (18th overall) Attendance: 1.92 million (23rd overall) 3-year record: 247-239, .508 (14th overall) 5-year record: 411-399, .507 (14th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right
Jose Cruz continued to emerge as an offensive threat, hitting 34 home runs and stealing 32 bases. Both figures were career highs for the fifth-year outfielder. Shannon Stewart was again one of the league's top leadoff hitters, despite a puzzling sojourn in the No. 3 slot. Pitching coach Mark Connor did well with a young pitching staff. The Jays don't have talent commensurate with Oakland or Florida, but Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar, Roy Halladay and Brandon Lyon all made major strides. And as usual, the Blue Jays were Canada's best professional baseball team.

What went wrong
Expected to contend for the wild card, the Blue Jays were exposed as more pretender than contender. An offense built on power too often fizzled, leaving Toronto with just 767 runs, ninth-best in the league and 94 fewer than their 2000 total. Carlos Delgado signed a four-year, $68 million deal before the season but failed to match the numbers that earned him such a hefty raise. Raul Mondesi wilted down the stretch, turning a potential 30-30 season into a disappointment. Veteran starters Esteban Loaiza and Steve Parris didn't match their younger counterparts, earning 5.02 and 4.60 ERAs, respectively.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Signing Delgado to an extension. Keeping Delgado around for four more years was the right decision, but Toronto hoped for more from their $68 million man. An affable and eloquent veteran, the big first baseman's batting average dropped from .344 to .279 as his strikeouts rose from 104 to 136. Losing Delgado would have damaged the franchise's credibility, not to mention depriving the team of one of baseball's most selective power hitters. The new contract just didn't pay off in year one.

2. Hiring Buck Martinez. Having failed to make the playoffs under recycled manager Jim Fregosi, Toronto took a leap of faith hiring Martinez out of the broadcast booth. Perhaps overcompensating for his inexperience, Martinez micro-managed the pitching game, although the results weren't all bad. The Blue Jays led the AL in both intentional walks and one-batter pitcher appearances. Look for that to change as the skipper grows more comfortable, both with his young staff and with the general nuances of managing.

2. Trading David Wells. The fiasco with Mike Sirotka set the tone for an entire season gone awry. Not that David Wells did anything special for the White Sox, but the Jays ended up getting nothing to replace a guy they expected to make 35 starts. Losing Wells wasn't quite like losing Roger Clemens, but Toronto's inability to keep frontline pitching needs to be resolved before pitchers like Carpenter and Halladay are eligible to bolt.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Will new general manager J.P. Ricciardi make a difference? The Blue Jays posted the AL's ninth-best on-base percentage despite getting 184 walks from their two biggest bats, Delgado and Mondesi. Ricciardi, a disciple of OPS-guru Billy Beane, wants to change that approach to hitting, as evidenced by his decision to quickly jettison SS Alex Gonzalez (149 strikeouts, .303 OBP). Dumping hitting instructor Cito Gaston, an old-school baseball hardhead, was another step in the right direction. Simply suggesting to hitters that they take a few more pitches won't do the trick. Ricciardi needs years to stock the system with his own players, but Vernon Wells, Shannon Stewart, Felipe Lopez and Orlando Hudson are all young enough to benefit from a new organizational philosophy.

2. Can Kelvim Escobar be a productive closer? Closing for the second time in his Toronto tenure, Escobar takes over for Billy Koch. Matching Koch's reputation will be difficult, although matching his 2001 numbers (4.80 ERA and eight blown saves) shouldn't be too hard. Escobar, 25, was outstanding in a variety of roles last season, posting a 3.50 ERA and a 2.5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 126 innings. Those numbers aren't surprising when you watch him pitch, but his 5.00-plus ERAs the preceding two seasons are more confounding. Escobar has the talent to be a very effective closer, but early struggles might destroy his seemingly fragile psyche.

3. Which young players will step forward? Toronto's lineup on Opening Day could conceivably feature Wells, Hudson, Lopez and Eric Hinske, all players with fewer than 200 career at-bats. Throw in C-DH Josh Phelps and C Jayson Werth at some point during the season, and the Jays will field one of baseball's youngest lineups. Carpenter, Halladay, Luke Prokopec and Lyon anchor a starting rotation that is short on gray hairs. Will Martinez, a straight-shooter with one season of managerial experience, be able to keep his young charges focused?

Can expect to play better
Mondesi. The catch here is that Mondesi may wind up playing better for a new team. Despite posting the second-best OBP of his career by virtue of a career-high 73 walks, the right fielder's second-half slump deprived the Jays of a crucial offensive weapon. Mondesi's only 31 and it's unlikely he'll hit so far beneath his career average for two straight seasons.

Stats Corner
Carlos Delgado (above) played every game for the second straight year, but his OPS fell from a monster 1.134 (2nd in AL) to 948 (9th in AL). Raul Mondesi hit .282 with an 885 OPS in the first, but just .207 with a 659 in the second half. Jose Cruz had 229 at-bats as the leadoff hitter, but posted only a .284 on-base percentage from that spot. Rookie Brandon Lyon made the majors after just 33 minor-league starts and posted a 4.29 ERA in 11 starts. However, seven of those starts came against Baltimore, Detroit and Tampa Bay.

Can expect to play worse
Actually, it's tough to figure out what Roy Halladay is going to do after posting a 3.16 ERA in just over 105 innings. Coming off one of the worst pitching performances in major-league history during the 2000 season (14 home runs and a 10.64 ERA in 67 innings), Halladay made stops last summer in Class A Dunedin, Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Syracuse before earning his way back to Toronto. He's the Blue Jays' likely Opening Day starter, but matching that sparkling ERA, not to mention a 1.16 WHIP, will be difficult.

Projected lineup
DH Shannon Stewart
2B Homer Bush
RF Raul Mondesi
1B Carlos Delgado
LF Jose Cruz
CF Vernon Wells
SS Felipe Lopez
3B Eric Hinske
C Darrin Fletcher / Josh Phelps

Rotation
Roy Halladay
Chris Carpenter
Luke Prokopec
Brandon Lyon
Esteban Loaiza / Mike Sirotka

Closer
Kelvim Escobar

A closer look
Darrin Fletcher, Homer Bush, Alex Gonzalez, Tony Batista (before being waived) and Brad Fullmer were the weak links in last year's Toronto offense. Finding a minor-league larder stocked with talent, new general manager J.P. Ricciardi appears willing to start from as close to scratch as Toronto fans will allow. Raul Mondesi will join the departing veterans if Ricciardi can find a taker for the outfielder's contract, but here's a look at the changing face of baseball in Ontario.

Catcher
Past: Darrin Fletcher
After seeing his average climb for four straight seasons, from .277 in 1997 to .320 in 2000, Fletcher's average tumbled to .226 in a career-high 134 games. He's good with the glove and showed signs of life by hitting .260 in the second half, but Toronto has too much young talent at catcher to keep Fletcher, 35, behind the plate.

Future: Jayson Werth
As an Orioles' farmhand in 2000, Werth made it to Double-A Bowie as a 21-year-old catcher. He hit just .228 but demonstrated good discipline, walking 54 times while striking out 50 times in 276 at-bats. He returned to Double-A in 2001, this time for Toronto at Tennessee, hitting .285 with 18 home runs and 12 steals in 369 at-bats. Fletcher and fellow prospect Josh Phelps may make it difficult for Werth to move beyond Triple-A Syracuse this season, but a good spring could muddle the picture.

Second Base
Past: Homer Bush
A guy with a lot intangibles, Bush hasn't demonstrated enough tangibles to keep the job. Martinez says Bush will open the season at second, both in the field and in the batting order, but that doesn't mean he'll finish the season, or even April, in Toronto. Prone to injury and unwilling to take a walk, Bush has a razor-thin margin of error as an effective offensive player.

Future: Orlando Hudson
Hudson, 24, answered a lot of questions by succeeding in his first tour of duty at Triple-A. Never regarded as a top prospect, the former 43rd-round pick posted strong Double-A numbers last season, but only after struggling at the same level the previous season. A hitter with more power and better plate discipline than Bush, and only slightly less speed, Hudson fits the Beane/Ricciardi mold.

Shortstop
Past: Alex Gonzalez
No player is more representative of the mixed results of Toronto's last rebuilding effort. Touted as a top prospect coming through the system, Gonzalez never emerged as more than a middle-of-the-road shortstop. He gave the Jays an edge on teams stuck with the likes of Chris Gomez and Kevin Stocker, but playoff teams aren't built around players like Gonzalez. Great with the glove but horrendously undisciplined at the plate, last season's .691 OPS, despite a career-best 17 home runs, sealed Gonzalez's fate. He starts 2002 as the Cubs' starting shortstop.

Future: Felipe Lopez
At first glance, Lopez's resume as a prospect looks a lot like his predecessor's. Lopez hit a respectable .279 for Syracuse last year, but that was far and away his best hitting performance in the minors. Lacking discipline, he struck out 94 times in 89 games and 39 times in 49 games with Toronto. Lopez isn't yet equipped to take advantage of decent speed and power. Any 21-year-old shortstop capable of starting for a decent team deserves a few years of patience, but a slow start will engender plenty of comparisons to Gonzalez, who also made his debut at 21.

Third Base
Past: Tony Batista/Jeff Frye
Losing Batista to waivers may have been an egregious mistake, but he didn't figure in the team's long-term plans. Frye was an emergency fill-in, although late in the year the team made a puzzling decision to play Lopez out of position at third base.

Future: Eric Hinske
A surprising number of teams have parted with Hinske during his brief career, but chalk it up to the Cubs getting fleeced and the A's realizing he wasn't going to beat out Eric Chavez. Hinske hasn't dominated the minors in his various stops, but he has posted better numbers than more highly-touted prospects. Playing at Triple-A Sacramento last season, Hinske hit 25 home runs and stole 20 bases while posting a .373 OBP. The PCL is a hitter's league, but those numbers suggest he's ready for a full-time job in the bigs. Some analysts do question his defense.

Designated Hitter
Past: Brad Fullmer
Traded to Anaheim for Brian Cooper, Fullmer's inability to hit lefties made him expendable. Like Fletcher, Fullmer fell on hard times following an outstanding 2000 season that saw him hit 32 home runs and drive in 104 runs. He's never walked much, and 2000's .558 slugging percentage was out of line with the rest of his major-league record.

Future: Josh Phelps
Phelps' future may be as a designated hitter if Werth or Joe Lawrence continue to develop, but his best shot for immediate playing times lies at catcher. Toronto's inability to trade Raul Mondesi means Shannon Stewart is likely to begin the year as a fleet-footed DH. Phelps isn't regarded as a bad catcher, but it's his eye-popping offensive numbers that attract the most attention. Spending most of 2001 at Double-A, Phelps hit 31 home runs with a .406 OBP and .968 OPS. While he's probably ready to hit in the majors, Phelps may get at least a few months of seasoning in Syracuse if Toronto isn't ready to entrust their young pitching staff to a young catcher.

Graham Hays is an editor for ESPN Fantasy Games.