The Numbers

2001 record: 88-74, .543 (tied for 9th overall) 2001 expected record*: 87-75 Runs scored: 729, 13th in NL Runs allowed: 643, 1st in NL Run differential: +86 (6th overall) Starters' ERA: 3.54, 1st in NL Bullpen ERA: 3.73, 2nd in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $91.9 million (6th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $20 million (10th overall) Attendance: 2.82 million (11th overall) 3-year record: 286-200, .588 (1st overall) 5-year record: 493-317, .609 (1st overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right?
The Mets imploded and the Marlins were only good for knee-biting, so the Braves extended their run of NL East titles to seven years. John Burkett generated arguments that human cloning was already here, because at times it seemed like the Braves had two guys pitching like Greg Maddux. Following the organization's established pattern of weaving in top-quality prospects when the opportunities arise, Marcus Giles arrived and showed that he's ready to be a star hitter as a second baseman. Chipper Jones continued to be one of the best players in baseball. Brian Jordan had his best year since his last year with St. Louis, finally giving the Braves something close to what they were expecting when they signed him.

What went wrong?
Opening the season with Rico Brogna at first base, and then never really fixing the problem. The middle infield disappeared in a spate of injuries, and the Braves stumbled along without adequate offensive players in prime hitter's positions like first base or left field. Andruw Jones took a small step backwards. John Smoltz and Kevin Millwood were fragile, and Kerry Ligtenberg didn't really get going until the second half. Javy Lopez sprained his ankle at the end of the regular season in October, handicapping an offense that couldn't afford to lose anybody.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Made before the season even began. For the most part, your 2001 Braves team was a collection of organizational legacies, both good and bad. The engines that drove the Braves' pitching and offense were almost entirely the old standbys, key players like Maddux, Tom Glavine, Andruw and Chipper. They were handicapped by previous commitments to haul in guys like B.J. Surhoff and Rico Brogna.

2. Exchanging John Rocker for Steves Karsay and Reed. The Braves exchanged a problem pitcher for one of the best right-handed relievers in the game and a great situational right-hander. Rather than spend money to fix the bullpen, the Braves fixed it in-season by acquiring Karsay and Reed, as well as nabbing Jose Cabrera on waivers.

3. Settling for acquiring Rey Sanchez down the stretch. This was a team with offensive problems at first base and left field. Sanchez may well be one of the best defensive shortstops in the history of the game, but the Braves were only 13th in the league in runs scored. They needed more than Sanchez, and John Schuerholz didn't get it.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Who steps forward to be the third starter behind the Big Two of Maddux and Glavine? A healthy Millwood would be great, but Jason Marquis is coming into his own. Throw in whatever good work that pitching coach Leo Mazzone will do with Albie Lopez, and you have a nice problem that might wind up with three answers.

2. Can a team win without a good hitter at first base? Honoring the memory of Sid Bream might be noble in somebody's eyes, but this is an area where the Braves could make an easy improvement between now and the trade deadline at the end of July. Acquiring Gary Sheffield is helpful for an offense that can use the help (see below), but the Braves can add a lot runs just by finding somebody within spitting distance of being an average hitter for a first baseman.

3. Will the Braves cobble together yet another effective (if nondescript) bullpen? Every year, stories get written about how the Braves need to fix their bullpen and spend a lot of money on some famous reliever. The decision to John Smoltz to a big contract should squash that line of commentary, but it blurs the original point, which is that Schuerholz and Bobby Cox do an outstanding job of assembling a bullpen out of the not-very-famous, guys like Ligtenberg and Cabrera.

Stats Corner
Chipper Jones (above) had 102 RBI, marking the sixth consecutive season he has driven in 100 or more runs. Greg Maddux allowed the fewest walks (27) of all NL pitchers who pitched 150 or more innings. B.J. Surhoff hit .271, his lowest batting average since the strike-shortened 1994 season (.261). Braves relievers allowed the fewest runs (207) and earned runs (182) of all relief staffs in the NL. Jason Marquis posted a 2.69 ERA in 13 games -- 11 starts -- after the All-Star break compared to a 4.42 ERA in 25 games -- five starts -- before the All-Star break.

Can expect to play better
Andruw Jones poked 34 home runs, but he also posted a meager .312 on-base percentage. That was more a factor of his declining batting average than anything else, but his walk rates have dropped from where they were at the start of his career. If Jones can get back to where he was with his pitch identification and selection, he's primed to have a big year at the tender age of 25. Among the guys coming back from injuries, you can count on Rafael Furcal improving on the .322 OBP he posted before a shoulder injury ended his season. Millwood is also good candidate to bounce back.

Can expect to play worse
Vinny Castilla. He'll be 35, and while a renaissance in Enron's confined spaces gave him an adequate partial season in 2001, that was his first good stretch since 1998. It's an open question as to whether or not he'll be an upgrade on B.J. Surhoff, the player he's effectively replacing with Chipper's move to the outfield.

Projected lineup
SS Rafael Furcal
2B Marcus Giles
LF Chipper Jones
RF Gary Sheffield
CF Andruw Jones
3B Vinny Castilla
C Javy Lopez
1B B.J. Surhoff / Julio Franco / Wes Helms / Ken Oberkfell?

Rotation
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Kevin Millwood
Jason Marquis
Albie Lopez

Closer
John Smoltz

A closer look
Karl Marx, in one of his crankier moments inspired by writing about the French, made the observation that history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, and the second time as comedy. After so much success and so much postseason heartbreak, are the Braves and John Schuerholz stuck in that same cycle, and is anybody laughing?

In this year's Baseball Prospectus, you'll find that we talk at length about Schuerholz and whether or not he's doing many of the same things he did when he ran the Royals. This is important, because Schuerholz is still for all intents and purposes the new guy, the general manager who glommed on to the great organization that Bobby Cox and Paul Snyder and others had already built. One of the basic points is whether or not he learned anything from his experiences in Kansas City. Most of his moves in the late '80s didn't really turn out very well. The Royals went from a traditional powerhouse in the old AL West to a boneyard filled with the tail ends of the careers of guys like Bill Buckner or Pat Tabler, or expensive boondoggles like at least two too many pitchers named Davis.

But potentially lost in the rubble of the downfall of a proud and successful organization was one particularly great trade, which was picking up Danny Tartabull from the Mariners after the 1986 season. Tartabull was a tremendous young right-handed power source at the time, but also somebody with nagging issues on defense. The happy news was that Schuerholz didn't give up very much to get a great offensive player, a thumper the Royals desperately needed.

On a superficial level, history repeated itself this winter, as Schuerholz went out and traded for Gary Sheffield, one of the great right-handed power sources in the game. However, that comparison is superficial considering the different points in their careers that Schuerholz acquired them. Tartabull was 24 when he became a Royal, and did not yet carry a reputation for fragility; Sheffield is 33, but his reputation for breaking down is overstated (Sheff's been good for 141 games or more in each of the last three years).

But more basically, getting Gary Sheffield is about as dramatic an upgrade as Schuerholz could have made. Let's give Brian Jordan the benefit of the doubt and judge him on the basis of his 2001 season as opposed to his performance over the last three years. Let's give Jordan the added benefit of not speculating (for the moment) on how well Sheffield will hit when he isn't playing half of his games in Chavez Ravine.

Even if you're only comparing Sheffield to the best Jordan in recent years, the Braves picked up around thirty or forty runs or Runs Created or Equivalent Runs or whatever offensive metric you care to use. Then, if you start taking into account a few realistic expectations about 2002 -- Sheffield is consistent, and Jordan is anything but -- the Braves may have picked up fifty or more runs than if they had taken the field counting on Jordan as their right fielder. Moving out of Chavez Ravine, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sheffield slug .600 again, or set a career high in home runs (previously 43, in 1999). Since Sheffield hasn't had an OBP below .400 since 1994, he's exactly what the Braves needed to help create some big-inning potential that depends on more than Larry Dierker's choice of relievers.

Upgrading from Jordan to Sheffield can mean as much as a five-game improvement in the standings, which in baseball analysis terms is a huge swing. That said, there's even more reason for optimism about how much the Braves' offense will improve in 2002, even without a real first baseman and even with Vinny Castilla around. With Sheffield and the Joneses as the main engines, you've already got a great platform, but the Braves will get a full season out of Marcus Giles and they'll get Rafael Furcal back. And as generally unpleasant as their current options at first base might be, B.J. Surhoff or Julio Franco are still better options than Rico Brogna. Javy Lopez might never be Mike Piazza, but he's still a valuable hitter for a catcher. Add all of that up, and the 2002 Braves should be able to get into the top eight of the National League in runs scored.

If John Schuerholz is repeating history by getting a right-handed thumper when he needed one, and that's supposed to be comedy, it doesn't seem like the Mets are laughing. Indeed, getting Gary Sheffield has less to do with Karl Marx whining. Instead, getting Sheffield makes an eighth consecutive division title pretty likely.

Chris Kahrl is a co-author of the Baseball Prospectus 2002, now available for order. You can reach Chris at ckahrl@baseballprospectus.com.