The Numbers

2001 record: 88-74, .543 (tied for 9th overall) 2001 expected record*: 87-75 Runs scored: 777, 7th in NL Runs allowed: 701, 4th in NL Run differential: +76 (tied for 8th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.07, 5th in NL Bullpen ERA: 3.93, tied for 7th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $64 million (14th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $23.6 million (8th overall) Attendance: 2.78 million (13th overall) 3-year record: 220-266, .453 (21st overall) 5-year record: 378-433, .466 (21st overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right
Sammy Sosa had perhaps the greatest runner-up MVP season of all time, posting career highs in slugging percentage (.737), on-base percentage (.437), runs (146), RBI (160) and most impressively -- considering his hack-o-matic roots -- walks (116). The Cubs' bullpen, a miserable entity in 2000, was mighty, with six regular relievers averaging at least one strikeout per inning pitched. Juan Cruz, even if he really is 23, had a phenomenal debut and, along with a resurgent Kerry Wood, forms the crux of a strong young rotation. The Cubs got decent mileage out of low-rent rotation pickups Jason Bere and Julian Tavarez. 3B Bill Mueller, when healthy, gave the Cubs desperately needed OBP (.403).

What went wrong
The Cubs got zero heat out of Opening Day starters Ron Coomer (706 OPS), Damon Buford (519), Todd Hundley (642) and Eric Young (726), and they finished seventh in the NL in runs scored despite Sosa's killer season. It seems cruel to bury 22-year-old center fielder Corey Patterson so early, but he did nothing to justify the hype. It's time to downgrade the expectations (the next Marquis Grissom, anyone?). Rondell White, though productive when healthy (.529 slugging percentage), predictably spent nearly half the season on the DL. Finally, although 38-year-old Kevin Tapani pitched no worse than any other year of his Cubs tenure (4.49 ERA), the team decided after the season that it was time to put him out to pasture.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Although the Cubs need to get younger, not older, you can't argue with the merits of acquiring 38-year-old first baseman Fred McGriff, especially at the low, low cost of two fringe prospects. McGriff (949 OPS) was a major upgrade over the yokels the Cubs were rotating at first, and with only one more year left on his contract won't run too much interference for first-base prospect Hee Seop Choi.

2. But you can argue with trading right-handed pitching prospect Rueben Quevedo to the Brewers for journeyman reliever David Weathers, who wasn't even re-signed after the season. A baffling move for an organization that was badly scalded just two years ago by a similar desperation, quick-fix deadline move (righty prospect Jon Garland for journeyman reliever Matt Karchner). Has GM Andy McPhail learned anything from history?

3. Drafting Mark Prior. The Cubs' (professed) commitment to building around young talent -- they boast one of the game's richest minor-league systems -- continues with Prior, whom they stole with the No. 2 overall pick. Best college pitcher since Roger Clemens? Yikes, easy there, tiger. But he could make an impact as soon as this season.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Will the youth be served? The Cubs have several prospects ready to go: On-base machine Bobby Hill at second base, Roosevelt Brown and Patterson in center field, and Cruz and Carlos Zambrano in the rotation. But with the Cubs' pennant pretensions, and manager Don Baylor's fetish for having veteran players, will the young-ins get a fair shot?

2. Can the Cubs score some more runs? It's hard to imagine the Cubs not scoring lots more runs, with Moises Alou on board, Fred McGriff around for a full season, Todd Hundley due for some sort of turnaround, and drags Coomer, Young, Matt Stairs and Buford sent packing. But ... Alou is 35, with a history of injuries, McGriff is 38, and Sosa simply can't be as good as he was in 2001 (though he'll still be really good).

3. Will Baylor hurt or help? Give Baylor credit for his expert management of his pitchers last season. But he also stuck with unproductive veterans way too long and hurt the team with his perverse proclivity for small ball (he ordered an astounding 32 more sac bunts than any other NL manager). Bad sign for 2002: If Baylor bats shortstop Alex Gonzalez at No. 2 so he can "manufacture" runs.

Can expect to play better
Hundley is the Bret Saberhagen of catchers, alternating All-Star years with All-Scrub years and stints on the DL. Anyhow, after a pitiful 2001, he's due for one of them good years.

Stats Corner
Jon Lieber (above) won 20 games (20-6) for the first time in his career and also logged more than 200 innings (232.1) for the third straight season. Sammy Sosa led the majors with 160 RBI and was second in home runs with 64. Jason Bere won three games in April (3-0), but never won more than two in any other month. The weak spot in the Cubs' order? The No. 6 slot ranked last in the majors with 61 runs scored and 29th with a .295 on-base percentage.

Can expect to play worse
Age and regression to the mean forebode declines for McGriff, Alou and Sosa. Stalwart starter Jon Lieber is a good bet to keep his ERA under 4.00 again, but he likely won't win 20 -- he was the beneficiary of 5.81 runs of support per game.

Projected lineup
2B Delino DeShields / Bobby Hill
3B Bill Mueller
RF Sammy Sosa
1B Fred McGriff
LF Moises Alou
C Todd Hundley
CF Corey Patterson / Roosevelt Brown
SS Alex Gonzalez

Rotation
Kerry Wood
Jon Lieber
Jason Bere
Juan Cruz
Jesus Sanchez / Carlos Zambrano

Closer
Flash Gordon

A closer look
The miserable have no other medicine but only hope
-- William Shakespeare

Wait til next year
-- Cubs fans

Here's a new slogan for die-hards to try out: Wait til next, next year. Not that the 2002 season will be painful to watch or anything; with Moises Alou on board to bolster the offense, the Cubs should give Houston and St. Louis a good run for the NL Central crown. But this year's team is no powerhouse, and certainly not the foundation of dynasty, not with the likes of aging stopgaps Todd Hundley, Delino Deshields, Jason Bere and Bill Mueller taking the field, and stick-impaired Alex Gonzalez manning short.

The 2003 Cubbies, though? Assuming Andy McPhail doesn't trade the rest of his young studs for Doug Brocail or someone like him, the Cubs could field a young team that the organization can build around for the next decade, much like the Braves and Yanks have built around their farm hands.

Here's a glimpse, then, into the Cubs' very near future with 2003 Opening Day age in parenthesis:

2B: Bobby Hill (25): A Chuck Knoblauch type: Great on-base skills, gap power, speed.

SS: Clearly, the Cubs still view 2000 first-rounder Luis Montanez (21) as the future at short, despite his mediocre 2001 season. Why else would they trade 20-year-old Adam Morrissey, he of the infinitely superior numbers at a higher classification, to the A's for journeyman Mark Belhorn (BTW, McPhail really, really should stop returning Billy Beane's phone calls. That's two serious prospects -- Eric Hinske was the first -- that Beane has fleeced from the Cubs the last two seasons for spare machinery.) If Montanez isn't ready -- and he's not likely to be, unless he takes a major leap this year -- Cubs fans will have to endure one more year of AGonz.

RF: Sammy Sosa (34): He's playing at such an elite level that even given his inevitable, age-induced decline, he will continue to play at an All-Star caliber level for at least three more years. Wait, did we say inevitable decline? As Barry Bonds proves, sometimes the elite buck the inevitable. We'll see.

1B: Hee Seop Choi (24): The Cubs originally targeted him to take over first base this year, but an injury-plagued 2001 season at Triple-A delayed his ascent. Still, his power and secondary skills place him just beneath Carlos Pena and Nick Johnson in the pantheon of elite first-base slugging prospects.

LF: Moises Alou (36): He may have a long-term deal, but considering his age and injury history, the Cubs will likely have to start entertaining full-time left-field alternatives by as soon as 2003. That said, there's some interesting outfield talent on the brink; On the major-league level Roosevelt Brown (27), if the Cubs ever allow him to break out. At Double-A: Nic Jackson (22).

3B: David Kelton (23): Improving strike-zone judgment and power stroke should mask concerns about his defense.

CF: Corey Patterson (23): Most skill-based scouts remain convinced that Patterson is the real deal. And granted, even if his 2001 season (split between Triple-A and the Cubs) was decidedly poor, he was still just 21. But if Patterson is going to be a long-term fixture, he has to show a little sumptin in 2002. Not superstar numbers, but anything resembling progress: .270/.340/.480 would be fine.

C: Ryan Jorgensen (23): It's way, way premature to anoint Jorgensen as Hundley's heir apparent, considering a) he's only played one full year of pro ball b) the Cubs decade-long inability to develop promising catchers past even Double-A (Pat Cline anyone?) and c) all lists must have three. So there.

Rotation
Kerry Wood (26)
Juan Cruz (24)
Carlos Zambrano (21)
Mark Prior (22)
Jon Lieber (33) or Ben Christensen (25)

Closer
Kyle Farnsworth (27)

Three words: Yowza, that's hot.

Actually, 74 more words: Is this Smoltz, Avery, Glavine redux? Oswalt, Redding, Hernandez? Or could it be Pulsipher, Wilson, Isringhausen? Who knows? Right now, all the Cubs can do is hope that injuries don't curtail what could be one cool rotation -- and that given the opportunity (give it to 'em, Andy), these guys actually live up to the hype.

Hope? For a miserable organization that hasn't won a World Series in 93 years, here's to next, next year.

Scott Burton is a senior reporter for ESPN The Magazine.