The Numbers

2001 record: 62-100, .383 (tied for 29th overall) 2001 expected record*: 63-99 Runs scored: 672, 14th in AL Runs allowed: 887, 13th in AL: Run differential: -215 (30th overall) Starters' ERA: 5.20, 12th in AL Bullpen ERA: 4.49, 10th in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $55 million (18th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $15.5 million (16th overall) Attendance: 1.298 million (28th overall) 3-year record: 200-285, .412 (30th overall) 5-year record: 263-384, .406 (30th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right?
Tropicana Field did not collapse on August 13, killing the few fans in attendance ... But seriously, folks, 37-year-old first baseman Fred McGriff, after a subpar 2000 season, came back strong in 2001 and had 19 home runs and 61 RBI by late July (at which point he was traded to the Cubs). Shortstop Chris Gomez joined the Devil Rays in late July and hit eight homers in just 58 games. The bullpen was solid, as no-names Victor Zambrano, Jesus Colome and Travis Phelps all pitched quite well.

What went wrong
Just about everything else. Starters Bryan Rekar and Ryan Rupe combined for eight wins ... and 25 losses. And they couldn't blame poor run support; they really did pitch that badly. Five different Devil Rays with at least 200 at-bats posted sub-.300 on-base percentages; if that's not some sort of post-1990 record, it should be. And we're just scratching the surface in this category.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Wasting nearly 250 at-bats on catcher John Flaherty, who posted a .269 OBP. Prospect Toby Hall excelled in the high minors in 2000, then spent most of the 2001 season in Class AAA, doing it again.

2. Wasting nearly 250 at-bats on Damian Rolls, who never even established himself as a prospect in the minors. He took valuable playing time from Brent Abernathy, who does have a chance to be a good player someday.

3. Sticking with starter Ryan Rupe. He's got great stuff, but injuries left him with an ugly 6.92 ERA in 2000. Things didn't get much better in 2001, as Rupe went 5-12 with a 6.59 ERA.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Can Ben Grieve, just a few years ago considered the No. 1 prospect in the game, resuscitate his career? Grieve continues to reach base with great frequency, but after hitting 28 and 27 home runs in 1999 and 2000, he dropped to 11 in 2001.

2. Who's the next Tampa Bay closer? If Esteban Yan continues to pitch well, he could be a valuable trade commodity. Victor Zambrano and Jesus Colome both have closer stuff, though Zambrano appears to be further along at this point.

3. Can Paul Wilson establish himself as a quality starter? The one-time Mets phenom will be 29 next season and sports a 4.87 career ERA, but he went 6-2 with a 2.36 ERA from July 1 through the end of the season.

Stats Corner
Ben Grieve (above) compiled career lows in runs (72), home runs (11), RBI (72), batting average (.264) and slugging percentage (.387) in his first year with the Devil Rays. Greg Vaughn batted just .233, but did lead the Rays with 74 runs, 24 home runs, and 82 RBI. One of the team's few bright spots was Jason Tyner's success on the basepaths, as he stole 31 sacks and was caught only six times. With a 6-2 record, reliever Victor Zambrano was the only Tampa Bay pitcher with more than one victory and a winning record.

Can expect to play better
Third baseman Aubrey Huff put up solid numbers in the minors, but regressed last season to a horrible .288 OBP. At 25, Huff still figures to improve and become, if not a star, at least a solid regular for a few years.

Can expect to play worse
Given a full season, Chris Gomez will return to his typical good-field, no-hit ways.

Projected lineup
CF Jason Tyner
2B Brent Abernathy
DH Greg Vaughn
LF Ben Grieve
C Toby Hall
1B Steve Cox
RF Randy Winn
3B Aubrey Huff
SS Chris Gomez

Rotation
Tanyon Sturtze
Joe Kennedy
Paul Wilson
Nick Bierbrodt
Ryan Rupe

Closer
Esteban Yan

A closer look
The smartest thing the Tampa Devil Rays have ever done?

Selecting Bobby Abreu in the Expansion Draft.

The dumbest thing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have ever done?

Trading Bobby Abreu, that very same day, to the Phillies for Kevin Stocker.

Stocker lasted one full season as the Devil Rays' starting shortstop, and didn't play in the major leagues in 2001.

Abreu has, in each of his four seasons in Philadelphia, been better than anybody the Devil Rays could put in the lineup.

Trading the best player ever selected in an expansion draft was a huge mistake, but of course it was just one mistake, and no franchise has ever been crippled by a single mistake. Well, maybe the Red Sox eight decades ago. But it's not happened lately.

No, the Devil Rays have made plenty of mistakes. The Devil Rays haven't developed any of their own stars, and when they acquired other teams' stars, they didn't spend enough money to make that strategy work, either. And the result has been a roster essentially devoid of stars, young or old.

What makes this all the more painful is that expansion teams these days are not automatically consigned to years of failure. Here's how the four most recent expansion teams have fared in their first four seasons:

 
                    
D-Backs      342-306, .528 
Rockies      280-305, .479 
Marlins      262-320, .450 
Devil Rays   263-384, .407 

And in the Marlins' Year 5, they won the World Series. Compared to their counterparts in the 1960s and '70s, the expansion teams of the 1990s were invited to a big happy big-league party ... except the Devil Rays didn't RSVP. In four seasons, the Rays haven't shown a single sign of life, failing to win even 70 games in any season thus far.

The Diamondbacks won 100 games in their second season, the Rockies won 77 games in their third season, and the Marlins won 80 games in their fourth season. To find an expansion team that's struggled like the Devil Rays have, we must return to 1977, when the Mariners and Blue Jays joined the American League. Again, first four seasons:

 
Devil Rays   263-384, .407 
Mariners     246-400, .381 
Blue Jays    233-413, .361 

Measured against the Mariners and Blue Jays, the Devil Rays don't look so bad at all. The Blue Jays finally reached 70 victories in their sixth season, as they went 78-84 in 1982. The Mariners did virtually the same, posting a 76-86 mark that same season.

So in the spirit of post-holiday charity, let us lower our expectations for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. OK, so they're not the Diamondbacks. Or the Rockies. Or even the Marlins. But might they at least match the Mariners and Blue Jays, and become respectable in their fifth or sixth season?

If 70 wins is the benchmark, the answer is yes, of course they can. After all, the Devil Rays did win 69 games in both 1999 and 2000, so 70 wins obviously isn't out of the question in the near future. However, if 75 wins is instead the benchmark, the good fans of Tampa and St. Petersburg may be disappointed. That's because the Devil Rays won only 62 games in 2001, and there's no reason to expect great improvement in the next season or two.

There is some hope for the future. Catcher Toby Hall and third baseman Aubrey Huff are both in their mid-20s, and both posted outstanding numbers in the minor leagues. One or both might develop into All-Star caliber players. And the Devil Rays have a trio of minor-league outfielders with great potential.

But of those youngsters in the farm system, only Josh Hamilton -- who suffered through a miserable 2001 -- has any realistic chance of helping the Devil Rays as soon as 2003. And aside from the three outfielders, Tampa Bay's system is largely bereft of top-shelf talent. So considering the lack of help in the minors, and general manager Chuck LaMar's apparent inability to improve his team with trades, and the franchise's limited financial resources ... well, let's just say that perhaps the Devil Rays should now aim for the path of the New York Mets, who didn't win 70 games until their seventh season ... and then won a World Series in their eighth.

Rob Neyer is a senior writer at ESPN.com, and his column appears three times per week in the offseason.