The Numbers

2001 record: 92-70, .568 (6th overall) 2001 expected record*: 94-68 Runs scored: 818, 3rd in NL Runs allowed: 677, 2nd in NL Run differential: +141 (3rd overall) Starters' ERA: 3.88, 2nd in NL Bullpen ERA: 3.88, tied for 4th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $81.2 million (8th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $14.2 million (19th overall) Attendance: 2.74 million (14th overall) 3-year record: 277-209, .570 (6th overall) 5-year record: 342-306, .528 (9th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right?
Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling gave the Diamondbacks one of the all-time great pitching tandems, combining for 43 victories and finishing 1-2 in the NL Cy Young balloting. Veterans Mark Grace and Reggie Sanders signed as free agents, and both played better than anyone could reasonably have expected. Luis Gonzalez hit 57 home runs, which would have been headline news just a few years ago. Anything else? Oh, right ... the Diamondbacks beat the New York Yankees in the World Series.

What went wrong?
Jay Bell continued his slide from the heights he reached in 1999; his defense was shaky, and his .400 slugging percentage was his lowest since 1996 (.391). New manager Bob Brenly spent most of the season looking for a reliable No. 3 starter, not to mention No. 4 and No. 5 starters. An injury cost closer Matt Mantei most of the season. Byung-Hyun Kim stepped in and did a good job, but that left Arizona with shaky middle relief. And the uniforms were still ugly.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Firing manager Buck Showalter and hiring Brenly, who had never managed a game in his life. It's hard to identify a particularly brilliant move that Brenly made during the season, but he deserves a big share of the credit for his club's first-place finish.

2a. Signing Sanders. Coming off a rough year in Atlanta, Sanders came very cheap: $1.5 million for a one-year deal. He responded with 33 home runs, a career high, and a .549 slugging percentage that ranked second on the team to Gonzalez (.688).

2b. Signing Grace. True, Grace isn't the hitter that Erubiel Durazo is. But Grace gave the Diamondbacks solid defense at first base, and his presence allowed Durazo to become the most feared pinch-hitter in the world.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Can the Diamondbacks replace the production of the now-departed Sanders in right field? A platoon featuring Danny Bautista and David Dellucci wouldn't be bad, but management is apparently considering the ill-advised idea of making an everyday player of Bautista.

2. What becomes of Kim? There's nobody else like him in the game, but the fireballing submarine pitcher suffered untold agonies in the World Series, and it'll be some time before we know if he can shake that off.

3. Hovering above everything is the one big question: Can the Diamondbacks laugh in the face of Father Time again in 2002? More on that below ...

Stats Corner
Curt Schilling (above) led the major leagues with 22 wins and 256.2 innings, and Randy Johnson (not pictured) led the majors with a 2.49 ERA and 372 strikeouts. Luis Gonzalez finished third in the National League with 57 home runs, 142 RBI and a .688 slugging percentage. Byung-Hyun Kim limited hitters to a .173 batting average, lowest among NL relievers (minimum 50 innings). Lefty Brian Anderson was a disappointment (4-9, 5.20), but he did lead the NL with eight pickoffs.

Can expect to play better
Errr. Ummm. Sorry folks, but the truth is that we shouldn't expect any particular Diamondback to perform better this season than he did last. Well, Brian Anderson, maybe. And Matt Mantei presumably will pitch more than seven innings.

Can expect to play worse
Given that Gonzalez enjoyed one of the most surprising seasons in the history of the game, we must predict that his numbers will suffer in 2002. He'll be good but he won't be that good. And Grace's variety of niggling injuries may impact his production this time around.

Projected lineup
2B Craig Counsell
CF Steve Finley
LF Luis Gonzalez
3B Matt Williams
1B Mark Grace
RF Danny Bautista
SS Tony Womack
C Damian Miller

Rotation
Randy Johnson
Curt Schilling
Rick Helling
Miguel Batista
Brian Anderson

Closer
Matt Mantei / Byung-Hyun Kim

A closer look
There are a number of methods to compute the age of a baseball team; the most accurate is to weight the age of every player on the roster by playing time. That's a lot of work, though; here at Hot Stove Heaters, Inc., we prefer quick-and-dirty (but still instructive, we hope) methods. So for a reasonable stab at team ages, we simply average the July 1 ("seasonal") ages for the eight (or nine, including a DH) hitters and four pitchers who saw the most action.

Using that method, we came up with the following chart listing the 10 oldest teams to win league championships, through 2000:

 
Year  Team               Age 
2000  New York Yankees  31.8 
1956  Brooklyn Dodgers  31.7 
1983  Phil. Phillies    31.6 
1945  Detroit Tigers    31.3 
1999  New York Yankees  31.3 
1981  New York Yankees  31.2 
1904  Boston Pilgrims   30.8 
1933  Washington Nats   30.6 
1980  Phil. Phillies    30.5 
1944  St. Louis Browns  30.4 

So that's the baseline: 31.8. No team with an average age of 32 or higher had ever reached the World Series. In fact, very few teams with an average age over 30 have won pennants: the 10 listed above, plus the 1920 Dodgers (30.2).

And then came 2001, when both World Series teams rank among the six oldest ever. The Yankees, at 31.3, slip between the 1945 Tigers and the 1999 Yankees. And the Diamondbacks? They moved the baseline on us. The average age of the eight regulars and the four busiest pitchers was 33 on the nose, easily the highest of any pennant-winning team, ever.

Have the Diamondbacks gotten younger since the 2001 World Series? Hardly. The lineup is essentially unchanged, with the exception being right field, where Danny Bautista (now 29) takes the place of Reggie Sanders (then 33). Everybody else remains, but with an extra year on the clock. Johnson and Schilling return, and projected No. 3 and No. 4 starters Rick Helling and Miguel Batista are about the same age as Albie Lopez and Brian Anderson were a year ago.

Add everything up, and the Diamondbacks will be even older this year than last year, average age nearly 34. (Incidentally, by adding David Wells to their rotation, the Yankees are pushing their average age higher, too.)

Can they fight off the ravages of age for another year? Anything is possible, as both the Diamondbacks and Yankees have proved in recent seasons.

Still, it's an unmerciful fact that baseball players tend to decline in value once they're past 30. Does that mean that each player will decline in value after he turns 30? Of course not. But all groups of players do decline: pitchers, hitters, power pitchers, power hitters, finesse pitchers named Jeffrey, slap hitters with buck teeth ... All of them.

And so by getting older rather than younger, the 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks will be fighting a powerful current as they attempt to defend their championship.

Rob Neyer is a senior writer at ESPN.com, and his column appears three times per week in the offseason.