The Numbers

2001 record: 116-46, .716 (1st overall) 2001 expected record*: 111-51 Runs scored: 927, 1st in AL Runs allowed: 627, 1st in AL Run differential: +300 (1st overall) Starters' ERA: 3.77, 2nd in AL Bullpen ERA: 3.04, 1st in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $75.7 million (11th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $37.9 million (3rd overall) Attendance: 3.51 million (1st overall) 3-year record: 286-200, .588 (tied for 1st overall) 5-year record: 452-357, .559 (4th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right
The Mariners had perhaps the most successful regular season in baseball history. They tied the 1906 Cubs' record of 116 wins. They led the majors in attendance and hosted the All-Star Game. They trailed only the Yankees and Mets in local broadcast revenue. Ichiro earned one-name status and led the American League in average (.350), hits (242) and steals (56) and won the MVP Award. Bret Boone was even better; he hit .331 and led the AL with 141 RBI. Jamie Moyer won 20 games, Freddy Garcia paced the circuit in ERA, Edgar Martinez and John Olerud posted .400+ on-base percentages, Mike Cameron won a Gold Glove and the bullpen trio of Kaz Sasaki, Arthur Rhodes and Jeff Nelson dominated.

What went wrong
The Yankees won the ALCS in five games. Young pitching studs Ryan Anderson and Gil Meche missed the entire season with injuries. Jay Buhner's foot problems kept him sidelined until September. Shortstop Carlos Guillen contracted tuberculosis right before the playoffs began, forcing him to miss the first round.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Signing Ichiro. A seven-time batting champ in Japan, Ichiro cost the Mariners $13 million in bidding rights and a three-year, $14 million contract. Seattle probably recouped the investment in T-shirt and bobblehead sales alone. Ichiro ignited the offense (the M's led the majors with a .385 OBP from the leadoff spot), won a Gold Glove and proved to be worth every penny.

2. Signing Boone. He proved to be worth every penny of his $3.2 million deal and then some. He set AL records for home runs and RBI by a second baseman and filled the shoes of Alex Rodriguez as the big run producer in the middle of the lineup.

3. Playing smart, aggressive baseball for all nine innings and all 162 games. Not only did Ichiro steal 56 bases, but Mark McLemore was 39-for-46 and Cameron was 34-for-39. The team's style of play was best personified by the perpetually smiling Cameron in an extra-inning game against the Giants after the All-Star break. He was on second base when Tom Lampkin grounded a ball up the middle. Second baseman Ramon Martinez made a diving stop, but Cameron sped all the way past third to score the winning run.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Can Boone and Ichiro repeat their MVP-caliber performances? Boone seems likely to hit somewhere between his .265 career mark and .331 career-year mark, but his increased strength and willingness to hit to right field weren't flukes. Ichiro wasn't really the most valuable player -- not with just 20 unintentional walks in over 700 plate appearances -- but he has the ability to be more productive in 2002 with more plate discipline and more power.

2. Can James Baldwin replace Aaron Sele in the rotation? Sele may have been a postseason flop, but he won 32 games in two seasons with Seattle and pitched 210+ innings both years. Baldwin has pitched 200 innings just once in six seasons and has a career ERA of 4.98.

3. Are Anderson and Meche healthy? Anderson (torn labrum), the top lefty prospect in the game prior to last season, could be ready for spring training. Meche (shoulder) is on a slower track and could return in June. If either or both prove healthy, they could bolster the rotation or provide attractive trade bait.

Can expect to play better
When you win 116, nobody should be expected to play better. The most likely candidates: Cameron (could improve on his .267 average while keeping his other numbers intact), Guillen (.259, only 30 extra-base hits) and new catcher Ben Davis (still young, had terrible second half with Padres).

Stats Corner
Ichiro (above) hit .449 with runners in scoring position (first in majors), but just .293 when leading off an inning. Mike Cameron hit .310 with 18 home runs on the road but just .220 with seven home runs at home. Jamie Moyer became the oldest first-time 20-game winner ever and ranked fourth in the AL in opponents on-base percentage (.285). Midseason callup Joel Pineiro had a 2.03 ERA in 75 innings and held right-handed batters to a .150 average.

Can expect to play worse
Boone is the obvious candidate. Paul Abbott won't go 17-4 again as he led the majors in run support (7.79 runs per game). Arthur Rhodes was one of the premier setup guys, going 8-0 with a 1.72 ERA and league-leading 32 holds. Martinez is another year older and while still a great hitter, wasn't as great in 2001 as 2000. McLemore is another year older and won't repeat his career-high .384 OBP and .406 slugging.

Projected lineup
RF Ichiro Suzuki
3B Jeff Cirillo
2B Bret Boone
DH Edgar Martinez
1B John Olerud
CF Mike Cameron
LF Ruben Sierra / Mark McLemore
C Ben Davis / Dan Wilson
SS Carlos Guillen

Rotation
Freddy Garcia
Jamie Moyer
Paul Abbott
James Baldwin
Joel Pineiro / John Halama

Closer
Kazuhiro Sasaki

A closer look
First things first: the Mariners were obviously terrific in every aspect of the game last season, but unlike you heard throughout the season, Seattle's offense was more terrific than its pitching. Safeco Field is a pitcher's park; despite that, the Mariners led the majors in runs scored. Check these numbers:

Runs at home: 440, 3rd in AL
Runs on the road: 487, 1st in AL
ERA at home: 3.04, 1st in AL
ERA on the road: 4.05, 4th in AL

What made Seattle's offense so good, despite ranking just eighth in the league in home runs, was remarkable depth throughout the lineup. Using OPS (on-base + slugging), here is Seattle's ranking for each position:

Position       OPS   AL Rank
Catcher        696     6th
First base     866     5th
Second base    937     1st
Third base     731     8th
Shortstop      698     8th
Left field     713    11th
Center field   799     5th
Right field    848     3rd
Des. hitter    926     1st

The only obvious weakness was left field, but not every position can be expected to be productive. It will be interesting to see if the additions of Jeff Cirillo to replace David Bell at third base and Ruben Sierra to replace the Al Martin/Stan Javier combo in left were the correct moves by general manager Pat Gillick, instead of looking to upgrade the rotation (Paul Abbott, 5.30 ERA on the road; John Halama, 5.10 ERA on the road).

How many games will Seattle win in 2002?
Now for the big question: We know the Mariners will decline. But by how many games?

Let's check the hitters, using a combination of Runs Created and 2002 projected totals. The Mariners had 924 Runs Created in 2001; they actually scored 923 runs. So, using Runs Created we can estimate how many runs the M's will score in 2002. The method I used took the projected 2002 OPS totals from Stats, Inc. and then converted that into Runs Created (assuming equal playing time).

Player        2001  2001  Player     2002   2002  Diff.
               OPS   RC              OPS     RC
C  Wilson      708   46   Davis      704     46     0 
   Lampkin     657   22   Wilson     678     23    +1
1B Olerud      873   96   Olerud     868     96     0
2B Boone       950  116   Boone      848    102   -14
3B Bell        718   60   Cirillo    832     70   +10
SS Guillen     689   57   Guillen    716     59   + 2
LF Martin      712   40   Sierra     789     44   + 4
CF Cameron     832  103   Cameron    795     99   - 4
RF Ichiro      838  135   Ichiro     807    130   - 5
DH Martinez    966  105   Martinez   950    103   - 2   
UT McLemore    790   70   McLemore   675     58   -12
UT Javier      766   46   Relaford   703     42   - 4
Others               28   Others             28     0
Total               924    Total            900   -24

A couple notes. Jeff Cirillo's projected OPS is based on Coors Field. If translated to Safeco, that number would be much lower. However, I believe Cirillo -- like other Rockies hitters who have left Colorado -- will perform better than his Coors-translated numbers would indicate; an 832 OPS seems a reasonable projection for this year.

We've subbed Sierra into Al Martin's old role and Desi Relaford assumes Stan Javier's playing time. Sierra's OPS was projected for Arlington; that should drop some in Safeco. And, as you score fewer runs you get fewer plate appearances, which knocks down the overall runs scored.

Final projected runs scored: 890

Now, let's look at the pitchers. Again, we'll assume the same playing time and use Stats, Inc. projections. Those projected with an asterisk next to the ERA are mine, as Stats didn't project those pitchers. Of course, pitchers are much less predictable than hitters.

Pitcher       2001  2001   Pitcher    2002   2002  Diff.
              ERA   Runs              ERA    Runs
Garcia        3.05    88   Garcia     3.40    97    + 9
Moyer         3.43    84   Moyer      3.77    93    + 9
Sele          3.60    93   Baldwin    4.86   125    +32
Abbott        4.25    79   Abbott     4.13    78    - 1
Halama        4.73    69   Halama     4.73*   69      0
Pineiro       2.03    24   Pineiro    3.53*   39    +15
Franklin      3.56    32   Franklin   4.06*   37    + 5
Charlton      3.02    19   ???        4.02*   24    + 5
Paniagua      4.36    35   Hasegawa   4.30    35      0
Rhodes        1.72    14   Rhodes     3.18    25    +11
Nelson        2.76    21   Nelson     2.55    20    - 1
Sasaki        3.24    24   Sasaki     3.20*   24      0
Others        6.64    45   Others             45      0
Total                627   Total             711    +84

There are, of course, reasons why that 711 runs allowed total could change. James Baldwin is unlikely to match Aaron Sele's 215 innings pitched. Joel Pineiro is a good bet to pitch more than 75 innings. Jamie Moyer may have a 4.77 ERA instead of 3.77.

Final projected runs allowed: 711

Now, we just plug the runs scored and runs allowed into the pythagorean formula and we can estimate how many games the Mariners will win. The formula works like this: (Runs Scored^2) / [(Runs Scored^2) + (Runs Allowed^)]

We get the Mariners at a .610 winning percentage, which translates to 99 wins.

Which should be enough to win the AL West once again.

David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.