The Numbers

2001 record: 76-86, .469 (19th overall) 2001 expected record*: 81-81 Runs scored: 742, 10th in NL Runs allowed: 744, tied for 7th in NL Run differential: -2 (18th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.42, 9th in NL Bullpen ERA: 4.12, 11th in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $35.5 million (27th overall) Local broadcast revenue: $15.4 million (17th overall) Attendance: 1.26 million (29th overall) 3-year record: 219-266, .452 (22nd overall) 5-year record: 365-444, .451 (24th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right
The club set a franchise record by scoring 742 runs, thanks to an NL-leading 325 doubles and a franchise-best 166 homers. Cliff Floyd was brilliant for four months before slumping late. The unheralded Kevin Millar posted a 931 OPS, second on the team behind Floyd. The starting rotation of Brad Penny, A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster and Matt Clement showed flashes of brilliance.

What went wrong
Reliever Dan Miceli publicly criticized manager John Boles, who was canned at the end of May in favor of Tony Perez. The team played better for Perez until a disastrous 9-20 run in August. The Marlins continued to have trouble with patience and strike zone judgment, which prevented the offense from living up to its full potential. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez continued to irritate coaches with his lackadaisical play. The starters could be as inconsistent as they were promising, Clement in particular. Financial restrictions and a debate over a new stadium continue to dog the franchise.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Continuing the youth movement. Although they were below .500 for the fourth year in a row and didn't live up to expectations, the Marlins had one of the youngest rosters in baseball, with considerable raw talent.

2. Firing Boles. A loyal organizational soldier who had served Florida in a variety of roles, Boles' authority was undercut by Miceli's criticism, making the manager a lame duck and souring the clubhouse. He was canned in favor of Perez. The team responded to the change of leadership and played better at first, until the swoon in August. Boles left the team, taking a job with the Dodgers. Miceli, his nemesis, was exiled to Colorado after becoming a clubhouse disruption.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Who is the owner? The machinations between John Henry and Jeff Loria over the purchase of the club are intertwined with the contraction debacle and the disaster in Montreal. Loria should end up with the team eventually, but what happens then? Can he finagle the new stadium the club claims it needs to stay in South Florida?

2. Who runs the team once Loria takes power? Will Jeff Torborg become the manager? Will the new GM, whoever he is, continue letting the current roster percolate, or will Loria demand a payroll reduction and start rebuilding again?

Stats Corner
Ryan Dempster (above) led the Marlins in victories with 15 and also logged the most innings (211.1) on the staff. Cliff Floyd went over the 100-RBI mark (103) for the first time in his career and also reached career highs in batting average (.317) and home runs (31) in 2001. Luis Castillo stole 33 bases, but was also caught stealing 16 times, tied for second-most in the majors. While Antonio Alfonseca lowered his ERA from 4.24 in 2000 to 3.06 last season, he also recorded only 28 saves in 2001 compared to 45 in 2000.

3. The projected starting rotation of Penny, Dempster, Burnett, Clement and rookie Josh Beckett is potentially outstanding. How soon will that potential manifest?

Can expect to play better
With so much youth on the roster, there are many candidates. Derrek Lee hit .317 in the second half and, at age 26, could be poised for a breakout. Any of the pitchers could also break through.

Can expect to play worse
Floyd is more likely to come closer to his career .285/.355/.486 numbers than to repeat his .317/.390/.578 campaign of last season. Charles Johnson struggled in the second half, and his bat speed may be declining.

Projected lineup
2B Luis Castillo
1B Derrek Lee
LF Cliff Floyd
CF Preston Wilson
RF Kevin Millar
3B Mike Lowell
C Charles Johnson
SS Alex Gonzalez

Rotation
Brad Penny
Ryan Dempster
A.J. Burnett
Matt Clement
Josh Beckett

Closer
Antonio Alfonseca

A closer look
So, how good, really, is this starting rotation?

If you like fastballs, the Marlins are the team for you. The starting rotation has five pitchers with ace stuff. Let's take a look at this group in detail (numbers are career statistics in the majors), and try to get a read on where they are going.

Pitcher	HT	WT	DOB	W-L	IP	ERA	K	BB	FB	Other pitches
Burnett	6-5	205	1/3/77	18-21	297	4.18	218	152	94	curve, change
Clement	6-3	195	8/12/74	34-39	569	4.89	452	303	93	slider, change
Dempster	6-1	200	5/3/77	37-35	639	4.62	541	340	93	slider, change
Penny	6-4	200	5/24/78	18-17	325	4.10	234	114	94	curve, change
Beckett	6-4	190	5/15/80	2-2	24	1.50	24	11	94	curve, change

The "FB" reading is the velocity that they usually pitch at, according to the 2002 Scouting Notebook by STATS. All of these guys have hit 96 on occasion, as high as 98 for Beckett and Penny. But "working velocity" is usually a few mph below peak velocity. In any event, as you can see, all five of these guys have "ace" stuff: a great fastball, plus a solid breaking pitch and a changeup. All of them have "good size" for a pitcher; none fall into the "short right-hander" category that annoys some scouts. Clement and Dempster have the most major-league experience, though they also have the highest ERAs.

Who will emerge as the ace of the Marlins staff? In the long run, Beckett gets the nod from most experts, simply because he probably has the best combination of raw stuff and control of the group, at least if his minor-league numbers are any indication. But with just four major-league starts under his belt, and with a history of injury in the minors, it is wise if we keep expectations in check for the short run. In the long run, I think he'll be a cross between Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood, if he stays healthy and focused.

But what about the short run? If we discount Beckett, who gets the nod as the pitcher most likely to emerge as the Marlins ace in '02 and '03? Stuff-wise, they all have the ability, but it takes more than a great fastball to be a great pitcher. When command is considered, Brad Penny is the best bet to break through.

Penny has the lowest ERA of the quartet, but that's not the basis of this decision. What I like is his K/BB ratio.

Pitcher	Career K/BB	2001 K/BB
Penny	2.05	2.85
Dempster	1.59	1.53
Clement	1.49	1.58
Burnett	1.43	1.54

K/BB ratio is the best indicator of future performance for most pitchers, and Penny has by far the best K/BB marks of the quartet. Notice also the big improvement in his K/BB last year. A pitcher who can throw consistent 95 mph fastballs, has good breaking stuff, and threatens to post a K/BB of 3:1? Sounds like a potential ace to me. He is also the youngest except for Beckett, and is probably the most willing to use his changeup according to scouts. His mechanics are clean, and he takes his craft seriously.

Clement has been something of a disappointment since reaching the majors with the Padres a few years ago. I still believe in his potential, though he is the subject of trade rumors. I'm concerned about the deterioration in Dempster's control last year; he walked 112 guys in 211 innings, and posted a 5.91 ERA in the second half. That looks like an injury-in-waiting to me. Burnett is as talented as anyone, but is a "free spirit" and may not have the temperament to be a long-term ace.

Penny may not be the Opening Day starter, but of the Fireballing Five the Marlins will use in '02, he seems the best bet to break through with an outstanding season.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.