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The Numbers
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2001 record:
73-89, .451 (tied for 21st overall)
2001 expected record*:
74-88
Runs scored:
890, 3rd in AL
Runs allowed:
968, 14th in AL
Run differential:
-78 (23rd overall)
Starters' ERA:
6.00, 14th in AL
Bullpen ERA:
5.19, 14th in AL
Payroll (Opening Day):
$88.5 million (7th overall)
Local broadcast revenue:
$25.3 million (7th overall)
Attendance:
2.83 million (11th overall)
3-year record:
239-247, .492 (16th overall)
5-year record:
404-406, .499 (tied for 15th overall)
* based on runs scored and runs allowed
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2001 in review
What went right?
Alex Rodriguez signed his $252 million contract and was perhaps the best player in the American League, hitting .318 and leading the league with 52 home runs and 133 runs scored. Rafael Palmeiro equalled his career-high with 47 HRs and topped 100 RBI for the seventh consecutive season. Injuries to others forced Frank Catalanotto into the starting lineup and he contended for the AL batting title before finishing at .330. Ruben Sierra came out of nowhere to hit 23 HRs and slug .561 in a part-time role. Jeff Zimmerman stepped in as closer and converted 28 of 31 save chances with a 2.40 ERA.
What went wrong
Pitching, pitching, pitching. Rick Helling led the AL in runs allowed, hits allowed and home runs allowed. Veterans Darren Oliver and Kenny Rogers were terrible (6.02 and 6.19 ERAs) and youngsters Aaron Myette (7.14) and Rob Bell (7.18) were even worse. Tim Crabtree started the year as closer but went 0-5 before shutting down with injuries. Rusty Greer did not play after June 11 after having bone chips removed from his elbow. For the second straight season, Ivan Rodriguez spent significant time on the DL, this time with tendinitis in his knee.
In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Signing Alex Rodriguez. Obviously, A-Rod didn't disappoint. Attendance even went up 242,620 from 2000. If we attribute the entire attendance gain to A-Rod (a fair assumption, given the Rangers' play on the field), at the team's average ticket price of $20, A-Rod was worth $4.85 million in extra gate revenue alone. Of course, that's a small chunk of the $22 million he earned in 2001.
2. Not making any obvious upgrades on a pitching staff that ranked as the worst in baseball in 2000 (5.52 ERA). It only got worse in 2001 (5.71)
3. Too many old guys. Andres Galarraga and Ken Caminiti made nearly $10 million between them, but hit .235 and .232 and combined for just 19 home runs. With as many 30-and-older players as Texas had, it was predictable some of them would break down or decline. That's what happened and the offense ranked just third in the AL in scoring when it needed to rank first.
Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Will the starting pitching be any better? Chan Ho Park signed a megadeal to be the team's ace, but he's always pitched much better at Dodger Stadium: 2.36 ERA last year, 4.83 on the road. Meanwhile, Dave Burba is coming off a 6.21 ERA and Kenny Rogers off a 6.19 ERA. Can they come back? Perhaps. Both still had decent strikeout rates, so they shouldn't be completely written off.
2. Will Carl Everett and John Rocker be contributors or disruptors? Everett is the more important player of the two. He is expected to play center field and contribute offensively. Last year in Boston, he didn't field well or hit well -- and, in fact, hasn't hit well since the first half of the 2000 season. It could be that his skills have eroded to the point where he isn't a good player even if he suddenly does start believing in dinosaurs. As for Rocker, if he pitches poorly then he can simply be sent to the bottom of the bullpen. But if he can close, Jeff Zimmerman would slide nicely into a setup role.
3. Will the team trade Ivan Rodriguez? Pudge is a free agent after the season and wants a long-term contract at big dollars. But the Rangers have already pumped so much money into the offense with the likes of Alex Rodriguez and Juan Gonzalez that paying Pudge may not be possible -- or even wise. The 10-time All-Star is just 30, but he's caught a lot of games (over 1,300) and is coming off a knee problem. He's a risky long-term investment, so if Texas is out of the race by the All-Star break, look for Pudge to be dealt.
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Stats Corner
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Alex Rodriguez (above) hit .356 and slugged .702 on the road in 2000, but hit .276 and slugged .567 on the road in 2001.
A-Rod's .361 average at home was the highest in the majors for a non-Rockies player.
Now that Cal Ripken is retired, Rafael Palmeiro is baseball's new Ironman. He's missed just 26 games over the past 11 seasons.
After posting a 6.92 ERA through May, Doug Davis had a 3.77 ERA the rest of the season.
For the time since 1995, Ivan Rodriguez failed to raise his OPS from the previous season.
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Can expect to play better
Everett should have better numbers, unless he suffers a meltdown in the Texas heat in August. It may be easy to look at the pitching and expect better overall numbers, but try guessing who will it be: Burba? Rogers? Mark Petkovsek?
Can expect to play worse
Frank Catalanotto may not be a .330 hitter, but he is a very good hitter and we shouldn't expect a big slide this year. Rafael Palmeiro is another year older and while his HR and RBI totals should remain excellent, his rate stats (average, on-base, slugging) can be expected to fall off slightly.
Projected lineup
LF/DH/2B Frank Catalanotto
C Ivan Rodriguez
SS Alex Rodriguez
1B Rafael Palmeiro
RF Juan Gonzalez
CF Carl Everett
DH/LF Rusty Greer / Gabe Kapler
3B Mike Lamb / Herbert Perry / Hank Blalock
2B Michael Young
Rotation
Chan Ho Park
Kenny Rogers
Doug Davis
Mario Ramos
Dave Burba / Ismael Valdes
Closer
Jeff Zimmerman / John Rocker
A closer look
This shouldn't come as a shocking surprise, but Rangers owner Tom Hicks is not well-liked in baseball circles. He likes to spend his millions and, unlike the commissioner would prefer, doesn't complain that baseball is a terrible business.
Since buying the Rangers in June of 1998, money has been no object for Hicks, most notably the $252 million he will pay Alex Rodriguez over 10 years. This offseason has seen contracts worth more than a combined $100 million given to Chan Ho Park, Juan Gonzalez, Jay Powell, Todd Van Poppel and Dave Burba.
The Park signing in particular -- a reported $65 million over five years -- was criticized. Even the Rodriguez signing was criticized by management officials because it raised the highest average salary from $17 million to $25 million.
Of course, the bottom line is whether or not the money is actually helping the Rangers win. Texas won a franchise-record 95 games and the AL West in 1999, but just 71 games in 2000 and 73 last year, despite a top-10 payroll.
Let's see if Hicks' money is paying off by looking at each of the free agents the Rangers have signed since the end of the 1998 season.
1999 season
Rafael Palmeiro: 5 years, $45 million. Signed to replace Will Clark, the Rangers probably overpaid at the time, as Palmeiro was the sixth-highest paid player in baseball in 1999 at just under $9 million. However, that price now seems like a good deal for a player who has averaged 44 home runs and 130 RBI per season in his three years with Texas.
Mark Clark: 2 years, $9.3 million. Clark was given huge money even though he had a career ERA of 4.21 when he was signed and was coming off a 4.84 ERA with the Cubs. He was so bad he was released halfway through his second season. His mark with Texas: 27 games, 6-12, 8.27 ERA. Even Hicks called this one a "mistake."
Mike Morgan: 1 year, $900,000. Morgan went 13-10, but he pitched poorly with a 6.24 ERA in 140 innings.
2000 season
Kenny Rogers: 3 years, $22.5 million. Rogers was coming off two decent seasons when the Rangers signed him for more than $7 million a year. Still, he was 35 years old and not a power pitcher, so wasn't the best of bets. Doug Melvin, the GM at the same, admitted the club was somewhat desperate after losing Aaron Sele. "My fear was going about this and ending up with no starting pitcher," he said. Rogers had a decent first year (13-13, 4.55) but was horrible last year.
Darren Oliver: 3 years, $19 million: "I really don't think I could've imagined getting three left-handers with their ability in the offseason," Melvin said after adding Oliver to Kenny Rogers and Justin Thompson (who was acquired in the Juan Gonzalez deal). "I think we're very fortunate." Umm, maybe not. Thompson never pitched for Texas, which means he was more valuable than Oliver, who went 13-20, 6.60 in two seasons. His final year was dumped this winter on the Red Sox for Carl Everett.
2001 season
Alex Rodriguez: 10 years, $252 million. Well, the Rangers won two more games with A-Rod than they won without him.
Andres Galarraga: 1 year, $6.25 million. Galarraga had hit .302 with 28 home runs for the Braves in 2000. "We're happy to add a player of his caliber and character to the organization," Melvin said. "It fills one of our needs. We were looking to add a bat with RBI and home run potential. We certainly missed that last year." But 40-year-olds are big risks and this risk failed as Galarraga hit .235 with a .424 slugging percentage for the Rangers before getting traded to San Francisco. The Giants didn't pick up Galarraga's $7 million option for 2002.
Ken Caminiti: 1 year, $3 million. "I do have a fire in my belly to play this game," Caminiti said upon signing. "I don't know what happened the last couple of years." What had happened is that since winning the 1996 NL MVP Award, Caminiti's RBI totals had dropped from 130 to 90 to 82 to 56 to 45. Texas signed him anyway. He finished with 41 RBI, failed to meet the incentive clauses in his contract that could have earned him $6.8 million, was released twice and later arrested on drug possession charges.
Mark Petkovsek: 2 years, $4.9 million. A 35-year-old run-of-the-mill middle reliever who the Rangers grossly overpaid. He went 1-2 with a 6.69 ERA.
2002 season
John Hart takes over as GM from Doug Melvin ...
Chan Ho Park: 5 years, $65 million. "He's the ace we've been looking for," Palmeiro said. Or is he? Park's $13 million average annual salary -- affordable in part because A-Rod restructured his deal -- makes him the fifth-highest paid pitcher in the game. However, he's finished in the top 10 in the NL in ERA just once (3.27, 7th in 2000), despite pitching in Dodger Stadium. He also had some back problems last year (although he made all 35 of his starts). Park has an out clause that allows him to become a free agent after 2002 unless the Rangers make a $6 million bonus payment before November 10.
Juan Gonzalez: 2 years, $24 million. Gonzalez won two MVPs with the Rangers and while he's not the best hitter in the game (his career-best OBP is just .378), he's obviously a huge RBI force. But he also misses a lot of games (152 over the past six seasons) and comes with his own potential back problems as well.
Jay Powell: 3 years, $9 million. A very questionable signing. Powell had a 3.24 ERA last year, but fanned just 54 in 75 innings and also gave up a lot of unearned runs that made his ERA appear better than his actual performance. He also had shoulder surgery in 2000. Yes, the Rangers are desperate for pitching, but guys like this are not worth $3 million per year.
Todd Van Poppel: 3 years, $7.5 million. The one-time phenom pitched very well with the Cubs last year and is reunited with new Rangers pitching coach Oscar Acosta, who helped turn around his career in Chicago. Van Poppel also has a contract clause that pays him more if he becomes a closer, so the Rangers won't necessarily get a bargain if that develops.
Dave Burba: 1 year, $2 million. Burba fell apart last year after three previous solid seasons with Cleveland. Could bounce back. Probably won't.
It's not a good history for Mr. Hicks. Some of these signings cannot be blamed on the GMs alone. Hicks, for example, reportedly pressured Melvin to sign Oliver. This offseason's signings by Hart seem to fall into the same pattern as Doug Melvin's: a lot of high-risk propositions.
It didn't pay off in 2000 and it didn't pay off in 2001. It will be an interesting season in Texas but something says Hicks hasn't learned his lesson.
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.
