The Numbers

2001 record: 66-96, .407 (tied for 26th overall) 2001 expected record*: 65-97 Runs scored: 735, 12th in NL Runs allowed: 850, 14th in NL Run differential: -115 (24th overall) Starters' ERA: 5.47, 15th in NL Bullpen ERA: 3.71, 1st in NL Payroll (Opening Day): $45.2 million (22nd overall) Local broadcast revenue: $7.9 million (26th overall) Attendance: 1.88 million (23rd overall) 3-year record: 247-240, .507 (15th overall) 5-year record: 400-411, .493 (17th overall) * based on runs scored and runs allowed

2001 in review
What went right?
Adam Dunn, a huge outfielder who blew through Double- and Triple-A in three months, arrived in the majors in July and immediately began terrifying National League pitchers. For the third straight season, sidearmer Scott Sullivan pitched in exactly 79 games, and again the durable reliever showed no ill effects from a workload that included triple-digit innings. And after five years away from the game, 36-year-old Jose Rijo completed an astonishing comeback by pitching 17 innings for the club.

What went wrong?
Elmer Dessens emerged as Cincinnati's pitching ace, which was certainly wonderful for Dessens and his wife Lorenia. But when your ace is the guy with the 10-14 record and the 4.48 ERA, you've got problems. Nobody else in the rotation stepped up, and the result was a 5.47 ERA for Cincinnati starters that came within a hair of nosing out Colorado (Colorado!) for last in the league. Also, veteran superstars Ken Griffey and Barry Larkin, who between them accounted for roughly 40 percent of the team's payroll, combined for less than 10 percent of the team's at-bats.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Doing nothing before the 2001 season to bolster the lineup. Perhaps figuring that full seasons from Griffey and Larkin would cure most ills, Reds GM Jim Bowden left the lineup virtually unchanged from September 2000. And so when Griffey and Larkin went down, there weren't enough good hitters left to pick up the slack.

2. Firing Jack McKeon and replacing him with Bob Boone. Whereas McKeon was able, in 1999 and 2000, to cobble together effective pitching rotations composed of Denny Neagle and a bunch of no-names (remember Steve Parris?), Boone never hit upon a decent combination last year.

3. Failing to find another Neagle, or at least another Parris. While it's true that Boone didn't come up with even a halfway-decent rotation, he didn't have a lot of material to work with, either.

Looking ahead to 2002
Three key questions
1. Will the guys who make all the money actually earn it this year? Larkin's reportedly been working out like a fiend, but will his body allow him to play more than 100 games in 2002? And Griffey simply has to hit more than 22 homers, because he's being paid to hit twice that many.

2. Will Dunn continue to pound pitchers like he did last year? The last corner outfielder who came to the majors with a resume like Dunn's was probably Ben Grieve; we all know what happened to him, but most players with Dunn's track record become fine major leaguers. At least.

3. Will Jimmy Haynes or Brian Bohanon step up and claim a job? While neither has been effective lately, both have shown flashes of quality in their careers, and the Reds are desperate for help in the rotation.

Stats Corner
Sean Casey (above) hit better than .300 (.310) for the third consecutive season. Adam Dunn hit 51 home runs last season, including 19 in 66 major-league games. Scott Sullivan became the first pitcher ever to lead the majors in relief innings four straight seasons. Aaron Boone, playing for his father, slugged a career-high .483 in 103 games. Pokey Reese, deemed untouchable by the Reds just two years ago, batted .224 and was cut loose after the season.

Can expect to play better
If the Reds are going to get better, it'll be due to a lineup that features some very talented hitters. Last year, some of those hitters weren't in the lineup nearly often enough. While Griffey, Dunn, Aaron Boone and Larkin can't be expected to play much better, they can certainly be expected to play more. And if they do, the Reds could sport one of the better offenses in the league.

Can expect to play worse
The Reds have something else going for them: not a single projected regular played significantly over his head in 2001. Wilton Guerrero did hit .338, but that was only in 142 at-bats.

Projected lineup
2B Todd Walker
SS Barry Larkin
CF Ken Griffey
1B Sean Casey
LF Adam Dunn
3B Aaron Boone
RF Juan Encarnacion
C Jason LaRue

Rotation
Elmer Dessens
Lance Davis
Chris Reitsma
Jose Acevedo
Jimmy Haynes / Brian Bohanon

Closer
Danny Graves

A closer look
A couple of years ago, the Reds made a trio of fateful decisions regarding their middle infield.

First, they deemed Pokey Reese untouchable in trade talks with the Seattle Mariners. Reese was coming off a season in which he'd batted .285, stolen 38 bases, and earned a Gold Glove as the league's top defensive second baseman.

That was a major snag in the trade talks, but eventually things got worked out: the Reds got Junior Griffey, and the Mariners got Mike Cameron, Brett Tomko ... and a very young shortstop prospect named Antonio Perez.

Next, the Reds signed Barry Larkin to a lucrative three-year contract extension running through the 2003 season. At the time, Larkin was a great player, a Hall of Fame-quality player, but he was also an injury-prone 36-year-old player. And wouldn't you know it, he played only 102 games in 2000 ... which seemed like a lot in 2001, when he played only 45 games.

Meanwhile, in 2001 Pokey Reese's stock plummeted nearly as quickly as Enron's, and after the season the Reds sent him on his merry way. This leaves them with (soon-to-be) 38-year-old Larkin at shortstop, perennial disappointment Todd Walker at second base, and nary a top minor-league prospect ready to take over for either of them within the next two seasons.

Which is a real shame, because otherwise the Reds have the makings of a solid lineup. In addition to Sean Casey, Aaron Boone, Griffey and Adam Dunn, the Reds have a hot outfield prospect on the way. Austin Kearns was set back by a thumb injury last season, but he should be ready to take over sometime in 2003. All in all, there's a lot to like about the Reds' lineup a year or two down the road (especially if shortstop David Espinosa, the club's first-round pick in 2000, develops as quickly as some think he could).

But of course, hitting's only half the game. No matter how much you pay Junior Griffey and Barry Larkin, they can't take the mound and throw quality strikes to major-league hitters. The Reds' pitching last year was a disaster, they've done little to address the shortcoming this winter, and they've got one -- count him, one -- minor-league prospect (Ty Howington) who looks like a good bet to eventually pitch well in the majors.

There may be a light at the end of the tunnel for the Reds, but at this moment we're not really close enough to see it.

Rob Neyer is a Senior Writer at ESPN.com, and his column appears three times per week in the offseason.