The Numbers
	2002 record: 81-81, .500 (14th overall) Runs scored: 856, 3rd in AL Runs allowed: 798, 8th in AL Run differential: +58 (11th overall) Starters' ERA: 4.94, 8th in AL Bullpen ERA: 3.70, 6th in AL Payroll (Opening Day): $57.1 million (18th overall) Attendance: 1.68 million (23rd overall) 3-year record: 259-227, .533 (10th overall)

2002 in review
What went right?
Not much, at least at first. The club went 16-11 in September, mainly using young players. Magglio Ordonez hit 38 homers, 47 doubles, drove in 135, and posted a .978 OPS. Paul Konerko continued his steady production, driving in 104 while hitting .304. Carlos Lee, Frank Thomas, and Jose Valentin all hit between 25 and 28 homers. Joe Crede played well after taking over third base in the second half. Mark Buehrle won 19 games with a 3.58 ERA. Damaso Marte, Keith Foulke, and Antonio Osuna combined for 33 saves.

What went wrong?
A lot did in the first half. A slow start buried the White Sox behind the death-defying Twins. It took a second half surge for the Sox to finish with a .500 record. Todd Ritchie, expected to be the ace of the staff after coming over from Pittsburgh in a winter trade, was horrible, posting a 6.06 ERA. Worse, both Kip Wells and Josh Fogg pitched well for the Pirates, making the trade an all-around baseball (and public relations) disaster for the Sox. Young pitchers Jon Garland, Dan Wright, and Gary Glover all flashed live arms, but had serious problems with their command. Thomas didn't hit as well as he is capable of, and seemed disgruntled at times.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. The Ritchie trade. The Sox have shown great patience with some of their young pitchers, but the one they picked to get rid of, Wells, could be the best of the bunch. Ritchie was plagued with nagging injuries, and ineffective when he did pitch. He was non-tendered at the end of the season, and will spend 2003 toiling for the Seligs in Milwaukee.

	Joe Crede Third baseman Chicago White Sox Profile
	2002 SEASON STATISTICS GM AB R HR BB AVG 53 200 28 12 35 .285

2. Pulling the plug. When it became obvious that the season wasn't going well, the Sox dumped veterans Sandy Alomar, Kenny Lofton, Bobby Howry, and Ray Durham in trades, bringing in additional talent for the farm system. The concurrent decision to use youngsters like Crede, Aaron Rowand, and Willie Harris in the everyday lineup gave them needed experience, and in Crede's case proved once and for all that he was ready for a major league job.

3. Bringing prospect Jon Rauch north from spring training. One of their best prospects, Rauch missed most of '01 recovering from a shoulder injury. He hadn't pitched especially well in spring training, but had done enough to impress the coaches. GM Ken Williams was talked into putting Rauch in the rotation, but he was hit hard, then sent back to the minor leagues. This stalled his development, left a hole in the rotation, and raised questions about the decision-making process in the front office.

Looking ahead to 2003
Three key questions
1. The Sox, convinced by the strong second half that they can challenge the Twins, have re-tooled the roster again, bringing in veteran pitchers Bartolo Colon and Billy Koch. This improves the club on paper, but may not improve the team in reality. See below.

2. Is Miguel Olivo ready to catch in the major leagues? If he isn't, how much does Sandy Alomar have left?

3. Up the middle. The Sox have several parts they can use at shortstop, second base, and center field. Jose Valentin, D'Angelo Jimenez, and Willie Harris will vie for playing time up the middle, with Rowand pencilled in center field to start the year. Harris can also play outfield. Having multiple options is good, but can also lead to defensive chaos, excessive mixing and matching, and clubhouse problems if the decision-making process is confused or unclear to the players.

Can expect to play better
Lee doubled his walk rate last year, though the rest of his numbers didn't improve on the surface. In reality, he set a career-best OPS mark. He could make a big step forward in '03, putting up gaudier power and batting average numbers. Konerko was great last year, and could be even better. Jimenez looked sharp in a Sox uniform, much more like the top prospect he was back in the Yankees system. Many people expect the Garland/Wright/Glover trio to improve substantially, although their K/BB marks don't support the idea of immediate improvement.

Stats Corner
Magglio Ordonez (above) hit a career high 38 home runs and was second in the AL with 135 RBI in 2002. Mark Buehrle was 12-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 18 starts at home and 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 starts on the road. Paul Konerko batted .304, the first time in his career he's hit over .300. He also had a career high 104 RBI. Jon Garland and Dan Wright were a combined 7-3 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts in September.

Can expect to play worse
Buehrle has thrown 460 innings in two years, and is still just 23. He's a fine, fine pitcher, but the risk of injury is higher than the Sox might want to admit. Both Colon and Koch are also risks for implosion. Most of the key offensive players are young, so shouldn't be expected to get worse.

Projected lineup
2B D'Angelo Jimenez/Willie Harris
SS Jose Valentin
DH Frank Thomas
1B Paul Konerko
RF Magglio Ordonez
LF Carlos Lee
3B Joe Crede
CF Aaron Rowand
C Miguel Olivo/Sandy Alomar Jr.

Rotation
Bartolo Colon
Mark Buerhle
Dan Wright
Jon Garland
Jon Rauch

Closer
Billy Koch

A closer look
Many commentators have made the case that the acquisition of Billy Koch and Bartolo Colon puts the White Sox back into instant contention. Some have even gone so far as to say it makes them the favorites to win the AL Central. It certainly could work out that way. Colon is a tremendous pitcher when everything is going right, certainly a dramatic improvement over Todd Ritchie. Koch is a "proven closer," as opposed to the three-headed monster that closed games last year.

But while it is possible, it's hardly certain that these trades will improve the team. In fact, there is a decent chance that these transactions could backfire, probably a bigger chance than the Sox realize.

First, the bullpen. Does switching Koch and Keith Foulke improve the team?

Pitcher	ERA	IP	H	SO	BB	WHIP	SV/Chances	Cnv. %
'02 Koch	3.27	93.2	73	93	46	1.27	44.50	88%
'02 Foulke	2.90	77.2	65	58	13	1.00	11/14	79%
Career Koch	3.48	305.1	275	265	127	1.32	144/167	86%
Career Foulke	3.36	490.2	399	458	121	1.06	100/119	84%

Why, exactly, do the White Sox think that Koch is a better pitcher than Foulke? In 2002, Foulke had a better ERA and a better WHIP. He lost his closer job after blowing some early saves, but that seemed a clear case of scapegoating. Foulke saved 66 games in '00 and '01, blowing just eight chances. Dumping him as the closer after a bad couple of weeks was a ridiculous move.

On a career basis, Foulke again outdoes Koch in ERA, WHIP, and control, and his save conversion rate is within variation of Koch's.

The only thing that Koch has that Foulke doesn't is a blazing fastball and a reputation. But in the big picture, it isn't blazing fastballs that make closers. Just like anything else, it's pitching ability. Koch is a good closer because he is a good pitcher. But Foulke is also a good pitcher, and he's a good closer, too. And, by the measures above, he's a better pitcher than Koch is. Adding Koch to the mix does not improve the bullpen; it merely makes it more expensive. If Koch's command unravels, Foulke could end up outpitching him by a significant margin. Either way, adding Koch is unlikely to actually improve the team. At best, it's running in place.

Colon, on the other hand, does improve the team, especially considering that the man he replaces in the rotation is Ritchie. Colon set a career-best ERA at 2.95 last year, while winning 20 games for the Indians and Expos, hardly super-strong teams. But as several writers have noticed, Colon's strikeout rate took a sharp drop downward. He fanned 149 in 233 innings, compared to 201/222 in '01, 212/188 in '00, and 161/205 in '99.

There are two ways to spin this. The optimists say that this is a sign of maturity on Colon's part, that he's not trying to strike out every hitter anymore, and is willing to let his defense do some of the work for him. The optimists point out that Colon's walk rate dropped, too, and his overall performance was certainly better, as shown by his ERA.

The pessimists, on the other hand, say that dropping K/IP rates are the first sign of a declining pitcher, even if it takes the rest of his numbers a year or two to catch up. They point out Colon's heavy workload over the last few years, as well as his tendency to carry too much weight, as additional warning signs for the future.

So, which way do we go? Does Colon collapse in '03, or does he keep pitching like an ace? On this question hang the White Sox's hopes for '03.

If he pitches the way he did last year, he'll be such a huge improvement over Ritchie that he could very well carry the Sox past 90 wins, assuming of course that the other pitchers carry their weight. If Colon gets hurt or falls apart dramatically, then the trade will go down as the second great bust on GM Ken Williams' resume. If Colon splits the difference and returns to pre-2002 performance levels, very good but not Cy Young material, then he'll still push the Sox closer to catching the Twins, but won't put them over the top alone.

That's our bet here. Expect Colon to regress to performance around his career norms, an ERA in the 3.70 range, 14-18 wins if he gets run support. Colon will help, and the Sox could very well win, but he can't do it by himself. The other players will have to come through, too.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com.