As we lean into the second month of the 2021 MLB season, we've reached an always interesting time on the baseball calendar. We've got a few weeks of tangible evidence describing what's happened, but it's a little too early to say for sure what any of it means.
May is also a crucial month because by Memorial Day, teams will begin making some hard assessments of what they have. Some will turn their attention to the trade deadline and positioning for the future. Others will scramble to patch roster holes that have opened up, either due to disappointing performances or a key injury, hoping to remain part of the playoff derby. Teams are just beginning to separate themselves in the standings, but for most clubs, everything remains on the table.
As usual, we'll rank the teams according to my power rating, which is basically a baseline forecast for the strength of a team's roster given its probable depth chart over the rest of the season. That is displayed along with results of 10,000 simulations, which use the power rating to fold in the results to date with the remainder of the schedule. There are a lot of factors in play: Injuries. Individual forecasts that have evolved based on early results. Playing-time decisions. This is my attempt to make sense of it all.
So how does your club stack up?