The case against signing Carlos Correa

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Carlos Correa is a generational talent. Carlos Correa is inconsistent and injury-prone.

Carlos Correa is one of the best all-around players in the game. Carlos Correa is overrated.

Carlos Correa is worth a $300 million contract. Carlos Correa is a risky investment.

While MLB teams committed over $1.9 billion to 51 free agents in their pre-lockout spending binge, the top consensus offseason free agent went unsigned. Correa, coming off his best all-around season, hits free agency for his age-27 season as a power-hitting, Gold Glove shortstop in his prime. Given that Corey Seager, a similar player but a year older, signed with the Texas Rangers for $325 million, Correa should expect a similar return.

Still, as those contradictory statements above suggest, Correa is a difficult player to evaluate. Let's examine each of those statements and then look at his potential destinations.

1. Correa is a generational talent

The first overall pick in 2012, Correa was just 17 when he was drafted and reached the majors in 2015 at age 20. That alone is a strong marker for future stardom, and Correa hasn't disappointed. In his seven seasons with the Houston Astros, Correa ranks sixth among all position players in Baseball-Reference WAR at 34.1, behind only Mike Trout (48.5), Mookie Betts (47.7), Nolan Arenado (38.1), Paul Goldschmidt (35.8) and Manny Machado (35.5). What's even more impressive is if you rank those players by WAR per 650 plate appearances: