ESPN.com - MLB Playoffs 2001 - Decisions to watch for during Series

Wednesday, October 24
 
Decisions to watch for during Series

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com

Joe Torre already knows this. Bob Brenly is about to find out. But it's amazing, the decisions that can win or lose a World Series.

  • Game 7, 1997: Cleveland manager Mike Hargrove passes over his leading winner, 15-game winner Charles Nagy, to start rookie Jaret Wright on three days' rest. The good news is: Wright pitches 6 1/3 brilliant innings, allowing just two hits and one run. The bad news is: Jose Mesa blows the lead in the ninth. And who winds up having to pitch in relief -- and lose the World Series -- in the 11th inning? Charles Nagy. Who else?

    Paul O'Neill
    Will Paul O'Neill be upset if he doesn't start Game 1 against Curt Schilling?

  • Game 6, 1992: With closer Jeff Reardon still available, Braves manager Bobby Cox brings in starting pitcher Charlie Leibrandt to pitch the 10th inning of a win-or-go-fishing game. One year after giving up Kirby Puckett's Series-turning extra-inning home run in relief, Leibrandt gives up Dave Winfield's game-winning, Series-ending two-run double in the 11th.

  • Game 1, 1990: With veteran second baseman Bill Doran down with a back injury, the Reds place September call-up Billy Bates on their postseason roster, even though he was 0-for-5 in his Reds career. Manager Lou Piniella then surprisingly sends up Bates to pinch-hit in the 10th inning against vaunted A's closer Dennis Eckersley. Bates chops an infield single and eventually scores the winning run, launching a shocking Reds sweep.

    So the moral of this story is: In the World Series, every managerial decision matters. The big ones. The little ones. The roster decisions. The pitching decisions. The rotation decisions. The lineup decisions.

    The games mean too much. And the people who decide them are often named Craig Counsell and Timo Perez instead of Luis Gonzalez and Mike Piazza. So all the decisions in this World Series are worth examining -- even the ones that haven't been made yet.

    With that in mind, let's look ahead to the potential decisions by Joe Torre and Bob Brenly that could influence this World Series.

    1. Could Brenly bring Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson back on three days' rest?
    Brenly has strongly implied he would do that only if Game 4 rolls around and Arizona is down, three games to none.

    Schilling has never pitched on three days' rest in his big-league career. Johnson hasn't done it since he lost Game 4 of the 1997 AL Division Series to Baltimore (giving up 3 runs and striking out 13). He has lost his two postseason starts made on short rest. Overall, the Unit is 5-3, 3.01 ERA in 10 career starts on three days' rest.

    So rather than start Schilling in Games 1, 4 and 7, Brenly is almost certain to start him in Games 1 and 5, then have him available in relief if it comes to a Game 7.

    2. What will the Yankees' lineup look like against Johnson?
    As loyal as Torre can be to Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez, his three primary left-handed bats -- O'Neill, Martinez and David Justice -- are a combined 0-for-7, with six strikeouts, against the Unit.

    So with no DH in both of Johnson's starts in Arizona, it's likely Torre would play Randy Velarde (.452 lifetime against Johnson) at first base and Shane Spencer in right. Spencer has seen the Big Unit in one place -- on TV.

    3. Why will Brenly start Brian Anderson in Game 3?
    Four reasons for this:

    1) Zero faith in Albie Lopez, whom Brenly was forced to pinch-hit for last weekend in the fourth inning of a postseason game in which he was leading by two runs.

    2) Brenly likes the idea of starting a left-hander in Yankee Stadium. The hitch in that logic, though, is that Anderson is 2-3 lifetime, with an 8.50 ERA, against the Yankees. And the meat of the Yankees' order has scary numbers against him. O'Neill and Martinez have eight homers in 32 at-bats. And Jeter and Knoblauch are both 4-for-8 off Anderson, with a home run apiece.

    3) It's Arizona's first game in New York. Anderson has been around longer than Miguel Batista. He has pitched more in Yankee Stadium. And he has pitched in the World Series before (for the '97 Indians).

    4) Not starting Batista until Game 4 makes him available in relief for Games 1 and 2, plus 7 and possibly 6.

    4. Why will Torre start Roger Clemens in Game 3?
    The Yankees may have questions about the state of Clemens' hamstring. But they have more questions about the state of Orlando Hernandez's psyche.

    El Duque's last really good outing was five weeks ago -- a seven-inning two-hitter against the White Sox on Sept. 18. And his two postseason starts have been torturous -- 111 pitches to get 17 outs against Oakland and a meltdown after four great innings against Seattle.

    The Game 3 starter would also have to start Game 7. And the Yankees would trust a gimpy Clemens in a game of that magnitude far more than they would trust El Duque at this point in a season in which he won just four of 18 starts.

    5. Who will the Diamondbacks use as DH in Yankee Stadium?
    Now that Torre has three right-handed pitchers lined up to start the games in New York next week, Erubiel Durazo looks like a lock to work on his DH act.

    In interleague play, Brenly used Durazo as his DH against right-handers and Jay Bell against left-handers. Greg Colbrunn might have supplanted Bell had Andy Pettitte started Game 5. But with that out of the picture, Durazo gives Arizona a power left-handed bat in Yankee Stadium (28 career homers in 454 at-bats against right-handed pitching).

    Durazo as a DH this season: .286 (6-for-21), with one home run.

    6. Will either team change rosters between the ALCS and World Series?
    Arizona definitely will add a left-handed reliever -- Troy Brohawn -- to replace Anderson in the bullpen. Brenly doesn't want Greg Swindell to be his only left-hander in a series against a club with this many key left-handed bats.

    So Brohawn figures to replace rookie Mike Koplove on the roster. Unfortunately, Brohawn was more effective this year against right-handed hitters (.233) than left-handed hitters (who hit a terrifying .386).

    There's still an outside chance the Diamondbacks also could add reliever Bret Prinz (2.63 ERA, 9 saves). Prinz has been out for the entire postseason with shoulder tendinitis. But he threw off a mound Wednesday and could pitch in a simulated game Thursday. He could lop Lopez off the roster.

    One more option: If Brenly has interest in using Bell as his DH, he probably would have to add Junior Spivey as an extra reserve infielder. But that's unlikely now.

    The Yankees, meanwhile, again will consider whether to drop infielder Luis Sojo and add either outfielder Gerald Williams (who owns three career home runs off Johnson) or rookie first baseman Nick Johnson. But Torre considers Sojo to be a good-luck charm and isn't likely to mess with a formula that has gotten him this far.

    With all the left-handed hitters Arizona has (Tony Womack, Craig Counsell, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Steve Finley, Durazo), a left-handed bullpen specialist might also be a consideration. But Randy Choate hasn't pitched in three weeks. So Mike Stanton (who has shaky numbers against a bunch of Diamondbacks) will be a key figure in this World Series.

    7. With no DH in Arizona, who will the Yankees play in the outfield against Schilling?
    The most likely choices are Chuck Knoblauch in left and Justice in right, with O'Neill (4-for-19 vs. Schilling) sitting. But Torre's affection for O'Neill easily could cause him to change his mind.

    Justice (10-for-28, 4 HR vs. Schilling) has twice as many career home runs against Schilling as the rest of the Yankees' roster combined. (Derek Jeter and Martinez have hit the other two.) So Justice, by the stats, would be a logical choice.

    Knoblauch, on the other hand, has lousy numbers (0 for 5, 2 walks) against Schilling in limited action. But the Yankees' approach against both Schilling and the Unit will be to try to work counts, run up both guys' pitch counts and get into the Arizona bullpen. And that's been the formula that has enabled the Yankees to win 11 games in the last four postseasons started by 20-game winners.

    In the Yankees' last 75 postseason games, only two pitchers have been able to hang in there and throw a complete game against them -- Bartolo Colon in Game 3 of the 1998 ALCS and Todd Stottlemyre, an eight-inning complete-game loss in Game 1 of the '98 ALDS against Texas.

    8. What's the biggest in-game decision to watch for?
    We only have to roll the video of Brenly's ninth-inning squeeze attempt in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the Cardinals series to remind you he's one of the most unorthodox, unpredictable managers alive. And he likes it that way.

    But one area in which he does figure to be predictable is that he figures to unleash his team on the bases in Games 3 and 4 against Clemens and El Duque. In two regular-season games against Greg Maddux this year, Brenly used the hit-and-run 11 times. He started runners four times in three innings against Maddux in Game 5 of the NLCS.

    It's impossible to run on Andy Pettitte in Game 2, and there were only nine successful steals against Mussina this season. But basestealers were 34 for 40 against Clemens this season, and 15 for 17 against El Duque. So when the Diamondbacks arrive in New York, it might be tough to tell if they're in the Millrose Games or the Fall Classic.

    Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.






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