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Friday, September 28
 
More September 2001 Archives

By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 28

    Schilling and Johnson and hope for a monsoon.

In 1948, the Boston Braves won their first National League pennant since 1914, and they wound up doing it with relative ease. But as September dawned, the Braves held slim leads over traditional NL powerhouses St. Louis and Brooklyn.

From September 1 through September 13, however, the Braves went 9-3 while their rivals were just treading water, and so by the middle of the month the Braves were comfortably in front. And on the morning of September 14, Boston "Post" sports editor Gerry Hern published this poem:

First we'll use Spahn, then we'll use Sain,
Then an off day, followed by rain.
Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain,
And followed, we hope, by two days of rain.

Nobody remembers the verse that way, though. Instead, it's been shortened to

Spahn and Sain and pray for rain

or

Spahn and Sain and two days of rain.

And over the years, those simple words have led generations of baseball fans to believe that Spahn and Sain were all the Braves had as they fought off the Cardinals and the Dodgers and the Pirates down the stretch.

It really wasn't that way, though. It is true that Sain was outstanding all season, and led the National League with 24 wins, 315 innings pitched, and 28 complete games. But in addition to Spahn, who went 15-12, the Braves also had starters Bill Voiselle and Vern Bickford, both of whom pitched well down the stretch and finished the season with lower earned-run averages than Spahn.

    Johnson and Schilling and gimme some of that good pie filling.

In fact, Hern's poem was more about the schedule than the pitchers. In those 14 days from September 1 through 13, the Braves had four scheduled off days, and lost two other days to rain. They played five doubleheaders, and twice swept twin bills behind Spahn and Sain.

The bottom line is that in 1948 there was far more to Boston's pitching staff than just Spahn and Sain. On the other hand, if you want to see a team that really is relying on two starters in a tight pennant race, look no further than the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.

 
Randy Johnson   20-6, 2.52 
Curt Schilling  21-6, 2.95 

And Arizona's next two winningest starters?

     
Miguel Batista   5-6, 3.63  
Robert Ellis     6-5, 5.56 

I don't know if the difference between the Diamondbacks' top two starters and their next two starters is historically significant -- we can probably expect a comprehensive study from our friends at Baseball Prospectus any day now -- but I do know that it's not something you see every year. I also know that while Johnson and Schilling will be tough customers in October, the Diamondbacks are going to need a third and a fourth starter in the postseason.

    Schilling and Big Unit, but who else will be doin' it?

Albie Lopez is just 3-7 with a 4.92 ERA since coming over from the Devil Rays, but the Diamondbacks acquired him to take over the No. 3 slot in the rotation, so presumably that's what he'll continue to do.

Miguel Batista has pitched well as a starter, his 5-6 record notwithstanding, and probably deserves a shot in the postseason rotation. But he has started only one game in September (pitching seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers). Robert Ellis hasn't started for the Diamondbacks since July 19. Brian Anderson is 3-9 with a 5.46 ERA in 22 starts. And that leaves only Bobby Witt, who is 3-1 with a 4.45 ERA in six starts. Witt is also 37 years old, and has pitched the grand total of four postseason innings in his long career.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves a bit, aren't we? Because if the Diamondbacks don't get good work out of somebody besides their top two, they might not have to worry about the postseason.

    Johnson and Schilling and the Good Lord willing

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Catching up on some mail while wondering if the Bobby Witt who's now 4-1 for the first-place Diamondbacks could possibly be the same Bobby Witt who arrived in the majors when I was still a teenager ...

    Rob:

    While sitting at Network Associates Coliseum on Sunday, a terrifying thought occurred to me. With a solitary tear in my eye as I watched the A's take a knee and pray, I could only think to myself, "I hope they're praying for their bullpen." The thought of Mecir, Tam and Isringhausen taking the mound in late innings against the Yankees, or possibly the Indians, should scare the living daylights out of anyone who bleeds green and gold.

    So I pose to you the following questions ... With a much different style of baseball played in the postseason (much closer games, the need to manufacture runs, better competition, etc) how much of a detriment is the A's bullpen going to be for them? Second, do you go with a four-man rotation, or a three-man rotation with Cory Lidle used to strengthen the bullpen? Also, what do you do with Eric Hiljus and Gil Heredia if you're Art Howe? Seeing as how they both fit into the long-reliever-emergency-starter role, do you keep them both on your playoff roster or do you drop one of them in favor of a situational reliever? And last, are their any good middle relievers or closers who Billy Beane could get for two idiotic owners and a player to be named later? I know they wouldn't be able to help us this year, but there's always 2002. ...

    Eric

Wow, that's a big bunch of questions, Eric. But with nothing much changing in the pennant races last night, what else am I going to write about?

First of all, I'm not sure why anyone would worry greatly about Oakland's bullpen. Let's look at their three busiest relief pitchers, the aforementioned Mecir, Tam, and Isringhausen.

 
         IP  Hits  BB   K   HR   ERA 
Tam      73   67   29   43   3  3.10 
Izzy     67   50   22   68   5  2.67 
Mecir    58   53   24   57   4  3.72 
Totals  198  170   75  168  12  3.14 

No, these numbers certainly don't match up with those posted by Seattle's bullpen, nor Cleveland's. But the A's relievers aren't exactly a national disgrace, either. And no, I don't think going with a three-man rotation and putting Lidle in the bullpen would work. Pitchers rarely start postseason games on three days' rest any more, and when they do they're generally not effective. If the A's reach the World Series, Cory Lidle will start three postseason games, as he should.

As for Hiljus and Heredia, I don't really know what the club's options are. But if there's any way to get Heredia off the postseason roster, they should do it, because it's hard to imagine a situation in which he might prove useful.

Summing up, I do think that Oakland's bullpen is a weakness, perhaps their only real weakness. But it's not a glaring weakness, and I still think the A's are just a tick behind the Mariners.

Jay Cohen writes, "Rob, Brady Anderson is still below the Mendoza Line. Why has nobody noticed? That's quite a feat in this era ... isn't it?"

Well yes, I believe that it is quite a feat in this era. As near as I can tell, it's been 10 years since a major leaguer compiled at least 502 plate appearances -- thus qualifying for the batting title, heh heh -- and failed to reach even a .200 batting average.

His name was Rob Deer, and he batted .179 in 134 games for the Detroit Tigers. That same season, by the way, a big fella named Mark McGwire batted .201 in 154 games, and if memory serves his manager held him out of the season's last game, to avoid the indignity of finishing below .200.

As for why nobody's noticed that Brady Anderson is suffering through one of the very worst seasons in memory, I suppose it's because we tend to avoid focusing on the negative. Unless some poor sod likes to give baseball writers a hard time, in which case he's fair game. But Brady is a popular guy, and so you don't often hear that the worst everyday player in the major leagues is making $6.5 million this season, and will do more of the same next season.

By the way, I found something very odd when I was checking to see if Brady Anderson really is the worst everyday player in the major leagues. Seventy-seven American League players have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Brady Anderson ranks No. 77 with a .319 offensive winning percentage. Cal Ripken ranks No. 76. Jerry Hairston ranks No. 75. And yes, all three of them are Orioles.

Hairston will likely return next year, but at least he's young and might get better. Ripken is, from what I've heard, on the verge of retirement. So that leaves Anderson, who for some reason is still under contract for next year. The Oriole front office, such as it is, faces a number of tests this winter, and one of the biggest is what the hell to do with Brady Anderson.

Lee Sinins points out that the 1999-2001 Astros are the first team in major-league history to go from 90-plus wins to 90-plus losses to 90-plus wins. But big turnarounds have become relatively common in recent years.

Between 1900 and 1960, only one team (the 1911-1912 Senators) went from 90 losses to 90 wins; it's happened eight times in the last 10 years.

Between 1900 and 1975, only two teams went from 90 wins to 90 losses; it's happened eight times in the last 10 years.

It's fashionable to talk about the lack of hope that some fans have these days, but such talk lacks historical perspective. From 1916 through 1948, not once did the Philadelphia Phillies manage to finish better than fourth place. Now teams go up and down like yo-yos, and there's enough hope to go around for everybody.

One last note ... I'd like to offer my congratulations to Jared Fernandez, the Cincinnati knuckleballer who finally, at the age of 29 and after six seasons in Triple-A, made his first major-league start last night. He didn't escape the fifth inning and he took the loss, but his presence makes the baseball world a more interesting place.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
A few notes on pennant races while wondering if Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson will ever learn to hit, or at least figure out that Springsteen's "Born in the USA" isn't exactly a patriotic song ...

  • The Braves seemed to have caught something of a break last night, as Marlins rookie Kevin Olsen made his first major-league start. And Olsen got into some early trouble, loading the bases in the first inning. With Olsen perhaps looking to strike out B.J. Surhoff, Marlins broadcaster Tommy Hutton -- who I like quite a bit -- said something that struck me as fairly humorous.

    "That's one thing the Atlanta Braves are able to do, is make contact."

    Hutton said this as if "making contact" were some great attribute. But is it, really? The Milwaukee Brewers are, with each game, setting a new major-league record for team strikeouts; they're now at 1,299 and counting. The Braves, meanwhile, have struck out just 957 times, fewest in the National League.

    Anyone like to hazard a guess on which team has scored more runs this season?

    Ah, you're a smart class, so smart that you probably even know that the Brewers have scored nine more runs than the Braves.

    Look, making contact is fine. But it's just that: fine. It's not excellent, or even very good. Too often, "making contact" means weak swings at bad pitches, and the result is rarely a positive event (for the best example of this, check out the Kansas City Royals).

    As it turned out, the Braves did not make good contact against Olsen, who did strike out Surhoff in the first and wound up with six K's in five innings. But while it took them a while, Atlanta finally managed to win in Miami. After scoring two runs against Olsen in the first, the Braves strung together nine goose eggs before busting loose in the 11th, and John Smoltz shut down the Marlins to gain the save. So Atlanta's back in first place all by their lonesomes. And if Braves fans remember this game, they'll remember Steve Reed escaping a one-out, bases-loaded jam (not of his own making) in the bottom of the ninth.

  • I was planning to flip back and forth between the Braves and Phillies games -- the world may be going to hell in a handbasket, but you have to appreciate the modern comforts of the Extra Innings TV package -- except the Phillies phell behind early, so I mostly stuck with the Braves-Marlins contest. I did, however, flip for a moment to Channel 756, where I found the Cubs losing by a dozen runs to the Pirates. While there, a lesson on how much difference a single player can make.

    According to one of the Pirates broadcasters, the Cubs were, before last night, 21-26 since McGriff joined the club. Before McGriff joined the club, the Cubs were 4½ games ahead of the second-place Astros; now they're nine games behind the first-place Astros. In fact, the Cubs' second-half slide has to rank as one of the more precipitous in recent history by a midseason division leader. And with it all, they still have a shot at reaching the postseason. Not a good shot, mind you, but a shot nonetheless.

    But the Cubs' shot depends, in large part, upon the Cardinals playing poorly. And the Cards won last night, dropping the Cubs 4½ games off the wild-card pace. In other words, it's been a good run for them, but they're done. And the legacy from this season will, I suspect, be a harebrained trade that turned Ruben Quevedo into David Weathers.

  • Next came a tough choice. The Dodgers and the Giants? The Diamondbacks and the Brewers? Or the Rockies and the Padres, with Rickey Henderson doing his thing?

    I wound up in Los Angeles, because not only did the game feature a pair of contending teams (if just barely, in the case of the Dodgers), it also brought both Barry Bonds and Vin Scully into my home. Scully may be 73 years old, but I watch a lot of baseball games on TV, and I can tell you that he's still one of the best in the business. Here's one example ... The Dodgers scored seven runs in the sixth, benefiting from a swinging-bunt single, a passed ball, a broken-bat bloop single, and a lollipop changeup that Chan Ho Park slapped through the infield. That gave them a 7-1 lead as the Diamondbacks were getting crushed by the Brewers. If both games held, the Dodgers would be only 3½ games out of first place. And yet Scully, the Dodgers broadcaster, observed, "And so a good run of luck for Jim Tracy, but it could be too late."

    See, Vin Scully has seen a lot of baseball, somewhere in the neighborhood of eight thousand games. And while he'd love to see the Dodgers mount a furious comeback and gain entry to the postseason derby, he also knows that third-place teams don't often make up 3½-game deficits in nine days. More to the point, he doesn't insult our intelligence by suggesting otherwise.

    As for Bonds ... look, I don't want to belabor this point today -- I'm sure I'll have plenty of time for belaboring later -- but there's something absolutely bizarre happening in the baseball world right now. It seems that there are actually some sentient beings on this planet who think that somebody besides Barry Bonds is the MVP in the National League this year, even though he's putting together one of the four or five best seasons ever. In fact, this notion is so utterly preposterous that if Bonds doesn't win the award, I'm going to resign my membership in the Baseball Writers Association of America.

    That is, I would resign my membership if I were a member; they won't let me in. So let's say this, then ... if Bonds doesn't win the MVP, I'll turn up my nose with disdain when the BBWAA's emissaries finally come crawling to ask me to join.

    Unless they beg.

    TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25
    It took the Phillies 20 years, but they've finally won me over.

    For the first 14 years of my life, I didn't spend even a single moment of my life thinking about the Philadelphia Phillies. They didn't play my Royals in the summer and they didn't play in the World Series -- in fact, they hadn't played in a World Series since my parents were small children -- and so I didn't pay them any attention. It wasn't that I didn't care about them; rather, I didn't know about them.

    No, it wasn't until 1980 that the Phillies made any sort of impression upon my consciousness. That fall, my Kansas City Royals finally reached the World Series after four years of bitter disappointment. And their opponents? The Philadelphia Phillies, who themselves had finally reached the World Series after four years of bitter disappointment.

    The Royals lost to the Phillies, and my memories of the Series are almost all painful: Del Unser rapping pinch-hit doubles off Dan Quisenberry not once, but twice ... Tug McGraw striking out Willie Wilson ... Dickie Noles trying to kill George Brett with a fastball ... Pete Rose spiking the ball at first base, again and again and again ...

    Six games of Fall Classic baseball, yet only thoughts of Willie Mays Aikens bring a smile to my memory's face. He lined a ball into the left-field gap to win Game 3 for the Royals, and I was in the left-field seats for Game 4, and saw him blast a couple of homers as the Royals evened the Series at two games apiece.

    But the Royals lost the World Series. And so I hated the Phillies.

    I hated the Phillies just as I'd hated the Yankees -- who beat the Royals in three straight American League Championship Series from 1976-78 -- until 1980, when the Royals finally beat them. I hated the Phillies just as I'd hated the Kansas City Chiefs, the Miami Dolphins, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Oakland Raiders ... and extra credit to those of you who know that what those NFL teams have in common is that they beat the Minnesota Vikings -- my Minnesota Vikings -- in the Super Bowl.

    As compelling as the Phillies were in 1983 -- the so-called "Wheeze Kids" featured ex-Big Red Machinery Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, and Tony Perez -- I still hated them, and I rejoiced when the Orioles topped them in the World Series.

    As compelling as the Phillies were in 1993, I found myself charmed not a whit by them. Where others saw a colorful crew characterized by a refreshing genuineness, I saw a troop of buffoons with bad haircuts and disgusting gobs of chaw stuck to their jerseys. And so while I didn't exactly rejoice when they lost to the Blue Jays -- something about SkyDome just rubbed me the wrong way -- I didn't shed many tears, either.

    But 1980 was a long time ago, John Kruk now gets paid for talking rather than hitting, and I like the Phillies. There are only two pennant races left this season, and we've got the Phillies to thank for one of them.

    Truth be told, the Phillies really aren't very good. They've outscored their opponents by 30 runs ... which is about what the Red Sox, the Angels, the Twins, and the Giants have done this season. All that doesn't mean much now, though. To cap their surprising run, all the Phillies have to do is win more games than the Braves for the next 12 days ... and it's not exactly like the Braves have any claim on anything. Not this year.

    Yes, the Braves are going to lead the National League in ERA this year, just as they've done in seven of the last nine years. Thanks to John Schuerholz's odd obsession with players closer to Social Security than adolescence, the Braves currently rank 13th in the NL in run production, right behind powerhouses Cincinnati and Milwaukee. There are few bigger fans of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Leo Mazzone, and Bobby Cox than I. Still, I have to ask, do we really want to see the Braves in the postseason again? Aside from the odd spectacle of John Smoltz finishing games rather than starting them, do the Braves have anything, anything at all, to offer us that we've not seen before?

    This is my third straight column about the National League East, and for that you've got my apologies. But let's be honest here, folks. Aside from the National League East, what else do we, as baseball fans, have? Yes, the NL West is pretty hot, but the race there seems almost a sideshow, with Barry Bonds the main attraction under the big top. Don't you wish he'd just break the damn record, so we can get back to the important stuff? In the meantime, Braves-Phillies is the best thing going. And for the first time in 35 years, my phavorites are the Phils.

    MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
    On September 11, 1987, the New York Mets opened a critical series against the St. Louis Cardinals at Shea Stadium. In 1986 the Mets had romped to the division title with 108 victories, and eventually they won the World Series. But the Mets stumbled out of the gate in '87, and on July 23 they found themselves 10½ games behind the Cardinals. On September 11, though, the Mets had won 15 of their last 22 and trailed the first-place Cards by just 1½ games.

    So if the Mets could win on the 11th, they'd be just a half-game out, and everyone's preseason favorites just might be on their way to another title.

    Except it didn't happen. The Mets did grab a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the first when Keith Hernandez knocked in Tim Teufel, and Darryl Strawberry followed with a home run. The Cards scratched out a run in the second, but Mookie Wilson got it back with a solo homer in the Mets' half. And with New York's Ron Darling cruising, it was still 4-1 in the sixth inning ... when disaster struck Darling. Diving for Vince Coleman's bunt, Darling tore thumb ligaments and was forced to leave the game -- and as it turned out, the season -- in the seventh.

    The Mets still led 4-1 after eight innings. St. Louis shortstop Ozzie Smith led off the ninth with a walk, but Roger McDowell got the next two hitters, leaving Smith at second with two outs. One out away. Willie McGee singled to plate Ozzie, though ... and then Terry Pendleton blasted a fly ball over the center-field fence to tie the game. The Mets got a couple of men on base in their half of the ninth, but the rally ended when Hernandez grounded out to first base. And so they went to the 10th, the score 4-4.

    Jesse Orosco -- forever after known as "Messy Fiasco" by some Mets fans -- came on to pitch for New York, and coughed up three singles and a couple of runs. The Mets went down in order in the bottom of the 10th. They were two-and-a-half games behind the Cardinals, and wound up the season three off the pace.

    Sunday afternoon, history came somewhat close to repeating itself.

    There are still two long -- or short, depending on your perspective -- weeks remaining in the season, but yesterday's game at Shea Stadium just might be the one game that we remember from the National League East pennant race. Or at the least, it might be the one game that Mets fans remember.

    With the Mets leading 4-1 after eight innings, Braves second baseman Marcus Giles led off against Armando Benitez, fell behind in the count 0-and-2 ... and worked a walk. Julio Franco flied to right field and Chipper Jones struck out. One out away ... but Brian Jordan cranked Benitez's second pitch, a slider, to deep left-center for a two-run homer.

    That made it 4-3 with rookie Wes Helms due next. Helms bats right-handed, and at that point Bobby Cox had three obvious pinch-hitter candidates still on his bench:

                    OPSvsRHP  OPSvsLHP
    B.J. Surhoff       754       573
    Dave Martinez      785       666
    Keith Lockhart     618       444
    

    You're not going to use Lockhart because ... well, you're not going to use him because he can't hit. So Cox had to choose between Surhoff and Martinez, both of them 37-year-old, left-handed hitters with similar season and career stats. Martinez gets on base somewhat more often than Surhoff, and Surhoff hits home runs somewhat more often than Martinez. With Andruw Jones due next, Cox, perhaps figuring that his best bet was for Martinez to reach and Jones to hit a homer, sent Martinez to the plate.

    At which point, Bobby Valentine had a choice of his own. If he left Benitez out there, he would face Martinez and, if Martinez reached, the right-handed-hitting Jones. If Valentine brought in lefty John Franco, who was plenty warm in the bullpen, Franco would almost certainly face Martinez, because Eddie Perez -- who had batted only twice all season -- was the only established right-handed hitter remaining on Cox's bench.

    Valentine stuck with Benitez, and Martinez walked on a 3-2 pitch. With Jones due up, again Valentine had a choice between Benitez and Franco (there wasn't a right-hander ready in the pen). Valentine stuck with Benitez, Jones singled to left, and pinch-runner Wilson Betemit stopped at second base.

    Paul Bako was scheduled to hit next, and Bobby Cox used his final ace: B.J. Surhoff. And once again, Valentine left Benitez in to face the left-handed hitter.

    Would Franco have been the better choice?

    Their season stats before the game:

             IP  Hits  BB  SO  HR   ERA
    Benitez  73   53   38  86  11  2.96 
    Franco   52   54   18  50   7  3.78
    

    There's a reason that Benitez leads the National League with 41 saves; he's overpowering. But Franco's been very good, too. And more to the point, this season Franco had held left-handed hitters to a 614 OPS, while Benitez had allowed lefties a relatively-hefty 767 OPS.

    And of course, all this leaves aside the facts that (1) Benitez had pitched in four of the last five games, and (2) Benitez hadn't pitched well in this game. As Braves broadcaster Don Sutton cannily observed, Benitez had thrown very few fastballs in the strike zone, presumably because his fastball was too hittable to throw in the strike zone. His heat was still hot, but it wasn't quite as hot as usual.

    Benitez remained in the game, Surhoff singled, and the Braves tied the game. Franco finally came in, Perez pinch-hit for Lockhart (who had batted for Rey Sanchez), and Franco struck Perez out. John Smoltz shut down the Mets in the bottom of the ninth, and the game went to extra innings.

    The Mets lost it in the 11th. At 4:42 Eastern Time, Brian Jordan hit Jarrod Riggan's slider over the left-field fence for his second homer of the game, giving the Braves a 5-4 lead that John Smoltz preserved in the bottom of the 11th.

    At 4:44 Eastern Time, Philadelphia catcher Johnny Estrada, batting for the first time in the game, hit a first-pitch fastball over the right-field fence for a walk-off homer that gave the Phillies a 5-4 victory over the Marlins. The Phillies, like the Braves, had tied the game in the ninth inning and then won in extras.

    And so this September day, which might have ended with the Mets merely two-and-a-half games behind the Braves and two games behind the Phillies, ended instead with the Mets four-and-a-half games behind the Braves (and, not insignificantly, four behind the Phillies). And yet something tells me that this will not be the September day that Mets fans remember.




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