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Tuesday, January 8
 
Rangers: 1,000 runs may not be enough

By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com

A year ago, after signing free agents Alex Rodriguez, Andres Galarraga and Ken Caminiti, Rangers fans were excited with visions of 1,000 runs scored dancing in their heads.

Well, as my colleague Rob Neyer warned, it was an old lineup. Indeed, while A-Rod played every game and hit 52 home runs, Rusty Greer ended up on the disabled list, Galarraga ended up in San Francisco and Caminiti ended up in a Houston hotel room, allegedly with two crack cocaine pipes.

The Rangers scored 890 runs, which was a nice total, but ranked only third-best in the American League. Meanwhile, the pitching was the worst in baseball, and the Rangers lost 89 games, Mark Cuban got more publicity than Tom Hicks, and the team finished behind the Cowboys, Stars and Mavericks in popularity among fans in the Dallas Metroplex area.

No problem. Just give $65 million to Chan Ho Park, $24 million to Juan Gonzalez, several more million to a bunch of mediocre middle relievers and just maybe close that 43-game gap on the Mariners.

OK, that's a little cruel. The Mariners won't win 106 games, let alone 116. But how good will the Rangers be? There is no doubt the offense could be devastating -- especially if Frank Catalanotto hits like he did last year (.330), Carl Everett hits like he did in 2000, rookie slugger Carlos Pena hits like projected and Gonzalez stays healthy.

Assuming Gonzalez does pass his physical and joins the Rangers, their lineup projects as follows:

2B Frank Catalanotto, 881 OPS (on-base percentage + slugging percentage)
C Ivan Rodriguez, 888 OPS
SS Alex Rodriguez, 1021 OPS
1B Rafael Palmeiro, 944 OPS
RF Juan Gonzalez, 960 OPS
CF Carl Everett, 761 OPS
DH Carlos Pena, 914 OPS (projected total from Stats Inc.)
LF Rusty Greer, 795 OPS
3B Mike Lamb, 760 OPS

Mike Young, Gabe Kapler and Herbert Perry figure in the mix as well, although Kapler could be used as trade bait. Compare that lineup to Seattle's, which led the majors with 923 runs scored last year.

Position  Texas (OPS)      (OPS) Seattle
Catcher   Rodriguez   888   708 Wilson
First     Palmeiro    944   873 Olerud
Second    Catalanotto 881   950 Boone
Third     Lamb        760   718 Bell
Short     Rodriguez  1021   688 Guillen
Left      Greer       795   790 McLemore
Center    Everett     761   833 Cameron
Right     Gonzalez    960   838 Ichiro
DH        Pena        914   966 Martinez

Based on last year's numbers, Texas owns the advantage at five of the nine positions, with one even. The OPS numbers don't factor in Seattle's significant advantage in speed (Ichiro, Cameron and McLemore) but, on paper, the Texas offense looks superior to Seattle's offense from last year.

Of course, Seattle has upgraded from David Bell to Jeff Cirillo at third base and Dan Wilson to Ben Davis at catcher.

And, of course, we haven't even touched on Seattle's significant advantage with defense and pitching.

Consider defense. The Rangers are superior at only catcher (Pudge over Davis/Wilson) and probably shortstop (A-Rod over Guillen). Seattle owns significant advantages at center field, right field, second base and third base.

The Mariners have lost 15-game winner Aaron Sele, but the Rangers' ERA last year was more than two runs per game higher than the M's: 5.71 vs. 3.54. Park, who has been only a league-average pitcher away from Dodger Stadium during his career, will help cut that gap, but not nearly enough.

In the final analysis, 1,000 runs looks possible for this lineup. But it also looks like the Rangers will need even more than that if they want to win the West.

David Schoenfield is ESPN.com's baseball editor.




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