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| Wednesday, July 17 Updated: July 25, 3:47 PM ET Prediction: Schilling wins 23 By David Schoenfield ESPN.com |
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Curt Schilling beat the Rockies on Wednesday to win his fourth straight start and improve to 16-3. While 30 wins is out of the question (he's likely to get just 13 more starts), he could become the first pitcher to win 25 games since Bob Welch won 27 for Oakland in 1990. Schilling received a lot of attention in the first half for his big win total, but his 14 wins prior to the break wasn't all that unusual. In 2000, David Wells was 15-2 at the break; the same year, Randy Johnson was 14-2. Both won just five games in the second half, a reminder of how difficult it is to win 25 games, let alone 30. In fact, since Denny McLain won 31 games in 1968, only two pitchers have even won 15 games after the All-Star break: LaMarr Hoyt (15-2 for the '83 White Sox) and Bret Saberhagen (15-2 for the '89 Royals). But how many pitchers were in a position to make a run at 25 wins? Going back to 1985, here are pitchers who won at least 13 games prior to the All-Star break (with first- and second-half and games started in parenthesis): Pitcher Year Team 1st half 2nd half Curt Schilling 2002 ARI 14-3, 3.08 (19) David Wells 2000 TOR 15-2, 3.44 (19) 5-6, 4.97 (16) Randy Johnson 2000 ARI 14-2, 1.80 (19) 5-5, 3.81 (16) Pedro Martinez 1999 BOS 15-3, 2.10 (18) 8-1, 2.01 (11) Jose Lima 1999 HOU 13-4, 3.23 (19) 8-6, 4.04 (16) Roger Clemens 1997 TOR 13-3, 1.69 (18) 8-4, 2.44 (16) John Smoltz 1996 ATL 14-4, 3.16 (19) 10-4, 2.71 (16) Andy Pettitte 1996 NYY 13-4, 3.81 (18) 8-4, 3.93 (16) Jimmy Key 1994 NYY 13-2, 3.31 (19) 4-2, 3.12 (6) Mike Mussina 1994 BAL 13-4, 2.96 (19) 3-1, 3.47 (5) Ken Hill 1994 MON 13-3, 3.27 (18) 3-2, 3.48 (5) Jack McDowell 1993 CHW 13-6, 3.88 (19) 9-4, 2.74 (15) John Burkett 1993 SF 13-3, 3.28 (19) 9-4, 4.14 (15) Tom Glavine 1992 ATL 13-3, 2.57 (19) 7-5, 3.08 (14) Kevin Brown 1992 TEX 14-4, 3.01 (19) 7-7, 3.71 (16) Bob Welch 1990 OAK 13-3, 2.91 (18) 14-3, 2.99 (17) Dave Stewart 1989 OAK 13-4, 3.24 (20) 8-5, 3.41 (16) Frank Viola 1988 MIN 14-2, 2.24 (19) 10-6, 3.13 (16) Orel Hershiser 1988 LA 13-4, 2.62 (18) 11-4, 1.85 (16) Roger Clemens 1986 BOS 15-2, 2.48 (18) 9-2, 2.48 (15) Joaquin Andujar 1985 STL 15-4, 2.37 (20) 6-8, 4.74 (18) Dwight Gooden 1985 NYM 13-3, 1.68 (20) 11-1, 1.34 (15) A few notes:
So, I predict Schilling will win nine games after the break and finish with 23. Take it to the bank.
Soriano vs. Ichiro Well, let's find out. Soriano is on pace for over 400 total bases, with projected totals of 42 home runs and 56 doubles. His slugging percentage (.584) is much higher than Ichiro's .471, but Ichiro's on-base percentage (.423) is much higher than Soriano's .340. Ichiro is a better defensive player, but Soriano plays the more important defensive positions. Soriano has been the slightly better basestealer (25 out of 32 vs. 23 out of 33), but that's pretty much a wash. Some other measurements (through Tuesday):
Runs Created However, keep in mind that Soriano has used up more outs to create approximately the same number of runs -- he's made 292 outs (275 batting, 7 caught stealing, 5 sacrifices, 5 double plays) compared to Ichiro's 262 (240 batting, 10 caught stealing, 6 sacrifices, 6 double plays). Runs Created per 27 outs tells us many runs an entire lineup of Sorianos or Ichiro would create:
RC/27 outs
Equivalent Runs from Baseball Prospectus (park adjusted)
Equivalent Average from BP (measured along a similar scale as batting average) At this point, Ichiro appears to be the slightly more valuable hitter. Remember, Safeco Field is a tough place to hit, meaning runs created there are more valuable, since there are fewer of them. Through Tuesday, Ichiro had an 841 OPS (on-base + slugging) at home, but 961 on the road. (Soriano has also hit better on the road, with a 1031 OPS away from Yankee Stadium.) Finally, another way to look at production, comparing the two to an average player at their position:
Runs Above Position from BP So, who rates the edge? Hmm ... I think I'll take ... A-Rod. |
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