ESPN.com: MLB - Cy Young debate: It's the Unit

Unfortunately for Schilling and his quest for his first Cy Young Award, the baseball season is six months long, not five and a half, and the mortals solved the riddle of his fastball in the final weeks of the season.

Through August 31, Schilling probably held a slight edge over his teammate in the Cy Young race -- Schilling was 21-5 with a 2.77 ERA and a stadium full of strikeouts and Johnson was 19-5 with a 2.63 ERA and a stadium full of strikeouts.

But Johnson won his next four starts, allowing just three runs in 32 innings while whiffing 41 batters. When Schilling awoke on the morning of September 20 for his start in Colorado, the two were in a dead heat in the win-loss column: Schilling was 23-5, 2.82, and Johnson was 23-5, 2.40.

Schilling gave up nine runs in Coors Field that day. He gave up six runs in his next start and then three in a one-inning relief appearance on the final day of the season. Johnson, meanwhile, went 5-0 with a 0.66 ERA in September.

The final numbers:

Johnson: 24-5, 2.32 ERA, 260 IP, 197 H, 71 BB, 334 K's, .208 opponents' average
Schilling: 23-7, 3.23 ERA, 259.1 IP, 218 H, 33 BB, 316 K's, .224 opponents' average

Johnson won the pitching Triple Crown, leading the NL in wins, ERA and strikeouts. That alone makes it hard to deny the Big Unit his fourth straight Cy Young Award (only Greg Maddux has done that) and fifth overall (only Roger Clemens has won more). But Johnson also led the league in innings pitched, complete games, winning percentage, opponents' batting average and quality starts (six or more innings pitched with three runs or less allowed).

Whew. How you gonna vote against that?

Most Cy Young Awards

Roger Clemens, 6 (1986, '87, '91, '97, '98, '01)
Randy Johnson, 4 (1995, '99-01)
Greg Maddux, 4 (1992-95)
Steve Carlton, 4 (1972, '77, '80, '82)
3 -- Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Pedro Martinez

You don't. Schilling doesn't sympathy votes just because he hasn't won the award before.

What else? Let's see ...

Johnson allowed 78 runs in 35 starts; Schilling allowed 92 runs in 35 starts (not including his relief outing).

Both had equal run support: Johnson averaged 6.0 runs per start and Schilling 5.9.

Johnson had 30 quality starts to Schilling's 27.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Johnson was 6.7 wins better than an average pitcher while Schilling was 4.9.

OK, there are a few arguments in Schilling's favor:

That strikeout-to-walk ratio of 316 to 33 was just plain nasty. (Yes, but the bottom line is runs allowed, irregardless of how that is achieved, and Johnson allowed fewer runs.)

Schilling had to make three starts in Coors Field, while Johnson made just one. (Yes, but take away Coors Field and Johnson still had a better ERA, 2.31 to 2.99).

Schilling went 5-1, 2.65 in seven starts against Arizona's two main playoff rivals, San Francisco and Los Angeles; Johnson went 4-2, 4.11 in nine starts. (Yes, but Johnson had the huge September with the division title on the line.)

Schilling had an amazing season, but hardly historic; after all, he finished only ninth in the league in ERA. It's clear that Johnson is the one who will need to clear space in his trophy case.

Hey, you idiot sportswriter, you haven't even mentioned John Smoltz!
The Atlanta closer set an NL record with 55 saves. But in no way does a reliever -- even a closer who blew just four saves in 59 opportunites -- with a 3.25 ERA in 80 innings match up with starters who have better ERAs who threw 260 innings.

Plus, Smoltz wasn't even the best closer in the league -- Eric Gagne earned that distinction.

Prediction:
How I'd vote:

1. Johnson
2. Schilling
3. Roy Oswalt

How they'll finish:

1. Johnson
2. Schilling
3. Smoltz

David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.

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