Juan Cruz
Chicago Cubs
Position: RHP Height: 6-2 Weight: 160 Born: 10/15/78
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
BB |
K |
W-L |
ERA |
SV |
| 1999 |
Eugene |
A |
15 |
15 |
80.1 |
97 |
59 |
53 |
33 |
65 |
5-6 |
5.94 |
0 |
| 2000 |
Lansing |
A |
17 |
17 |
96.0 |
75 |
50 |
35 |
60 |
106 |
5-5 |
3.28 |
0 |
| 2000 |
Daytona |
A |
8 |
7 |
44.1 |
30 |
22 |
16 |
18 |
54 |
3-0 |
3.25 |
0 |
| 2001 |
West Tennessee |
AA |
23 |
23 |
121.1 |
107 |
56 |
54 |
60 |
137 |
9-6 |
4.01 |
0 |
| 2001 |
Chicago |
NL |
8 |
8 |
44.2 |
40 |
16 |
16 |
17 |
39 |
3-1 |
3.22 |
0 |
Background
Cruz was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 1997. He struggled for two years in the lower reaches of the Cubs farm system, impressing scouts with his fastball, but showing little pitching aptitude. A 5.94 ERA in 1999 was no fluke; he simply did not pitch well. Things turned around in May of 2000, however, as Cruz suddenly developed a nasty slider and a much improved changeup. He sharpened his control as well. He continued to pitch well in his Double-A debut in '01, and finished the year doing solid work in the major-league rotation.
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The Rookies
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Throughout spring training, John Sickels will provide in-depth reports on 10 of the hottest rookies to watch. Here's the complete schedule:
Feb. 26: Josh Beckett, Marlins
March 2: Carlos Pena, A's
March 5: Nick Johnson, Yankees
March 8: Sean Burroughs, Padres
March 12: Juan Cruz, Cubs
March 15: Mike Cuddyer, Twins
March 19: Morgan Ensberg, Astros
March 22: Kurt Ainsworth, Giants
March 26: Hank Blalock, Rangers
March 29: Jon Rauch, White Sox
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Scouting report
Cruz has a 93-97 mph fastball, and gets good movement on the pitch. His slider and changeup are among the best pitches in the Cubs farm system, and combine with his heater to make him nearly unhittable at times. He is aggressive as well, though some scouts say he needs to focus more on pitching rather than just throwing. His command is much better than it used to be, but still needs some improvement for him to dominate consistently.
Performance
If you want to see how much progress Cruz has made, compare his '00 and '01 numbers with his '99 rookie ball performance. Not just the ERA; look at the K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP marks. All were below average at Eugene, so the improvements he's made the last two seasons are all the more remarkable. His walk rate in Double-A was still a bit too high, so we need to keep our short-term expectations reasonable. His strikeout rate is excellent, which dovetails nicely with his observable "stuff."
Health record
Cruz made 31 starts last year and 24 the year before without ill effect. He has had no serious health problems. That doesn't mean he won't in the future, of course, and he does tend to throw a lot of pitches. But he doesn't have a history of fragility, so if the Cubs keep his workload to a reasonable level, there is no reason why his injury risk would be higher than any other pitcher.
What to expect
Cruz had some command problems early in camp, and given his lack of Triple-A experience, it shouldn't be a surprise if he struggles with his control at times this year. The Age-Gate Scandal recently revealed Cruz to be 23 years old, instead of 21, but he is still quite young, and it doesn't change my opinion of him. Cruz is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He isn't as polished as fellow Cubs prospect Mark Prior (who I now rank ahead of Cruz, a change from their ordering in the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook).
For 2002, expect occasional control problems, and overall numbers at or slightly better than league average from Cruz. Assuming good health, he'll improve beyond that pretty quickly over the next few years.
John Sickels is the author of the 2002 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. He is currently writing a biography of Bob Feller. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at hometown.aol.com/jasickels/page1.html.
