John Patterson
Arizona Diamondbacks
Position: RHP Bats Right Throws: Right Height: 6-5 Weight: 180 Born: 1/30/78

Year	Team	Level	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2001	Lancaster	A	2	2	9.1	9	6	6	3	3	9	0	0	0	5.79
2001	El Paso	AA	5	5	25.1	30	15	12	2	9	19	1	2	0	4.26
2001	Tucson	AAA	13	12	67.2	82	50	44	9	31	40	2	7	0	5.85
2002	Tucson	AAA	19	18	112.2	117	59	53	14	45	104	10	5	0	4.23
2002	Arizona	NL	7	5	30.2	27	11	11	0	7	31	2	0	0	3.23

Background
John Patterson was drafted by the Expos with the fifth-overall pick in the 1996 draft, out of high school in Orange, Texas. It seems like ancient history now, but the '96 draft was marred by controversy, as several alert agents took advantage of a previously-ignored loophole in the rules to have their clients declared free agents. The Expos didn't formally tender Patterson a contract in accordance with the rules, and he was thus declared free to sign with anyone. The D-Backs ponied up over $6 million to sign the high school pitcher. Patterson emerged as a top prospect quickly, being rated among the best in the game in the 97-99 time frame. But he blew out his elbow in 2000, and wasn't completely healthy again until late last year.

The Rookies

Throughout spring training, John Sickels provides in-depth reports on 10 of the hottest rookies to watch. Here's the complete schedule of when each report will appear: 2/27: 1B, Travis Hafner, Cle. 3/5: 2B, Joe Thurston, L.A. 3/7: SS, Angel Berroa, K.C. 3/11: 3B, Brandon Larson, Cin. 3/13: C, Miguel Olivo, ChW 3/18: SP, John Patterson, Ari. 3/20: RP, Frankie Rodriguez, Ana. 3/25: OF, Hideki Matsui, NYY 3/27: OF, Rocco Baldelli, T.B. 4/1: OF, Marlon Byrd, Phi.

Scouting report
Patterson has smooth mechanics for a tall pitcher, and regained his solid command and control last year. His fastball was clocked at 94-96 mph before the injury, but is now down in the 90-93 mph range, still respectable but not as overpowering. He can't just throw the ball by as many hitters as he used to, but this has also forced him to become a more complete pitcher. Patterson's curve is excellent, and he will use it at any point in the count. The fastball/curve combination is the bedrock of his arsenal: his changeup is still mediocre, and often he changes speeds on the curve rather than throwing a straight change. Scouts are impressed with his personality and work ethic, and he has a good feel for his craft.

Performance
2001 was a rehab season for Patterson, and he did not pitch well, especially at Triple-A. But things were better in '02, as he won 10 games while posting a strong 104/45 K/BB ratio in the difficult Pacific Coast League. He was quite impressive in seven games for the Diamondbacks, with excellent K/IP and K/BB marks. Statistically, at least, he looks ready for the majors, having recovered the strong ratio set that was his before getting hurt.

Health record
Patterson's Tommy John procedure in the spring of 2000 was successful, but his rehab took longer than in some recent cases. He wasn't totally healthy until late last year, and even now he hasn't regained the full velocity on his fastball. That may never return. Arizona monitors his workload carefully, and given the veteran pitching already present in their rotation, there's no need to push him to eat innings before he is ready.

What to expect
Patterson is expected to hold down the fourth starter job behind Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, and Elmer Dessens. Making predictions about rookie pitchers is always dangerous, but Patterson did well in his audition last fall, and has little left to prove in the minor leagues. League average or slightly better performance should be expected, with gradual improvement as he learns the league.

John Sickels is the author of the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book, which can be ordered through his website, Johnsickels.com. His biography of Bob Feller will be published this spring by Brassey's. He lives in Lawrence, Kan., with his wife, son and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com.