Bill James invented Career Assessments as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less than 1.5 seasons, and it is determined using the player's age on June 30 of the previous year. If the player is a catcher, his remaining seasons are multiplied by 0.7. Using the established norms and years remaining, the final total is projected, and the chance to reach that total can be derived. No player can have more than a 97-percent chance to reach any goal.
Examples (through July 1, 2009)
Alex Rodriguez - 763 Home Runs
Ichiro Suzuki - 3,000 Hits
CC Sabathia - 300 Wins
Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 5 more years, at an average of 33.8 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 578 for his career. He has a 97 percent chance to reach 500.