Go inside the numbers and matchups that will decide the game Tuesday night, and then vote for which team will win at the bottom of the page.
What we learned in Game 3
Trevor Bauer had to exit after recording just two outs after his stitched-up pinkie finger exploded, but Terry Francona successfully ran through six relievers in the 4-2 victory, with Andrew Miller getting the final four outs to put Cleveland on the verge of a sweep. The Indians are hitting .193 in the series ... but the Blue Jays are hitting .177. -- David Schoenfield
Inside the pitching matchup
When Corey Kluber is on the mound: Kluber had thrown 13 1/3 scoreless innings in his first two playoff starts but will be starting on three days' rest for the first time in his career.
Kluber's best pitch is one of the most dominant in baseball: A curveball (some call it a slider) that held batters to a .099 average and recorded a strikeout rate of 52.8 percent. He buries it low and away from righties and over the past three seasons, batters have hit .106 against it with just five home runs. He threw it 43 times out of his 100 pitches in Game 1 and the Jays went 3-for-16 against it with five strikeouts. Normally, Kluber throws that pitch only about a third of the time with two strikes, but it's such an effective pitch against right-handed batters I suspect he'll stick with it again Tuesday until the Jays start doing some damage against it. Along with his fastball, he mixes in a slider/cutter.
Kluber has always pitched much better from the windup than with runners on base. The splits weren't as drastic this year, but he held batters to a .587 OPS with nobody on versus .735 with runners in scoring position. Batters also hit .339 and slugged .578 when putting the first pitch in play. The Jays swung at six first pitches in Game 1, but put just two in play. -- Schoenfield
When Aaron Sanchez is on the mound: Sanchez went 15-2 in 30 starts with an AL-leading 3.00 ERA. He had pitched well out of the bullpen in 2015 but struggled with walks and a poor strikeout rate as a starter. To the Jays' credit, they stuck with him as a starter and everything came together. He got roughed up in his start against the Rangers in the Division Series, allowing six runs in 5 2/3 innings as he walked four batters and served up two home runs.
There's nothing fancy here: He comes right at batters with hard sinking 93-97 mph fastball that he threw 74 percent of the time -- only Bartolo Colon had a higher percentage of fastballs among starters and he ranked seventh among starters in average fastball velocity at 94.7. He may have been a little too pumped up against the Rangers as he averaged 95.7 mph with his fastball, his second-highest rate of any start this season. Even though Sanchez throws the fastball up in the zone, batters have trouble elevating it and hit just 10 home runs in 528 at-bats in plate appearances ending with the pitch. The two home runs allowed against the Rangers both came on 0-1 fastballs, one up and away to Rougned Odor and one down and in to Elvis Andrus -- not necessarily bad locations.
Because he throws his fastball so often, his two off-speed pitchers -- a curveball and, less often, a changeup -- were lethal to opponents. Batters hit .159 with a 45 percent strikeout against the curve and .133 against the changeup. With two strikes he increases his usage of both off-speed pitches. Like Marcus Stroman, Sanchez gets progressively worse each time through the order (although not as extreme):
First: .214/.287/.272, 1 HR
Second: .229/.296/.335, 5 HR
Third: .233/.291/.414, 9 HR
Let's see if manager John Gibbons is paying attention this time. -- Schoenfield
Player in the spotlight
Russell Martin. He's now 2-for-27 in the postseason (and .170 in his postseason career in 44 games). With runners on base he's 0-for-10. He struck out three times in Game 3. Does Dioner Navarro get the start? -- Schoenfield
Did you know ...
Kluber has tossed 13 ⅓ scoreless innings in two starts this postseason. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, that is tied for the third-longest scoreless innings streak to start a postseason in Indians franchise history, with Orel Hershiser and Ken Hill (both in 1995). Bartolo Colon is second with 14 scoreless innings in 2001, and Duster Mails holds the franchise record with 15 ⅔ innings in 1920. -- ESPN Stats & Information
What will decide Tuesday's game
Kluber's curve. Kluber threw his curveball 43 percent of the time in his ALCS Game 1 start, his highest rate in any turn this season. His second-highest curveball usage rate also came against the Blue Jays in the regular season. Kluber recorded a career-high 14 pitcher outs with his curve in Game 1. Kluber also doubled up on curveballs in a pitch sequence against the Blue Jays 16 times, but yielded a higher strike rate in at-bats where a fastball immediately followed a curveball. -- ESPN Stats & Information
Choosing sides: Who will win?
I've picked against Cleveland the past two games, and I'm not going to make that mistake again. The Indians clearly have something special going on, and they're not going to miss a chance to put away the Blue Jays with staff ace Kluber on the mound. Rookie Ryan Merritt is ready to pitch Game 5 if necessary Wednesday. But the surprising Indians will put the Jays out of their misery and end this with a sweep. -- Jerry Crasnick
I have picked against the Indians nearly every game, so why stop now? The Blue Jays' offense is due, while Kluber is starting on three days' rest for the first time. That combination will result in Toronto finally getting on the board. -- Andrew Marchand
If the Blue Jays couldn't get their bats going in Game 3 with Bauer bleeding all over the mound, why should anyone think they will beat up on Indians ace Kluber? Game 3 was a virtual death knell for the Jays, who have been dominated by the Indians just as the Red Sox were before them. The Tribe hasn't trailed since the top of the third inning of Game 3 of the Division Series -- 52 innings ago. It doesn't get any better than that. -- Scott Lauber
Where the series stands
This is what they call a must-win game! As for the Indians, here's how teams have done when leading a best-of-seven series 3-0:
Won 4-0 -- 29
Won 4-1 -- 3
Won 4-2 -- 2
Won 4-3 -- 0
Lost: 4-3 -- 1
Still, if the Blue Jays can win Game 4, there's reason to believe: Merritt, with one career start, probably starts Game 5. Then it's Josh Tomlin in Game 6. And then it's most likely Kluber again on short rest in Game 7. As Francona understands best, you never know.