Arriving at this point has been a long, emotional and often-surprising road.

Early favorite Young America, representing the New York Yacht Club, cracked in half and nearly sank. Although the team continued to boast that they had the fastest boat and best crew, they were eliminated as a result of poor sailing. Dennis Conner's Stars & Stripes almost reached the finals with an austere one-boat program. His edge was an all-star crew.

The complex weather patterns of the Hauraki Gulf have turned this America's Cup into a sailor's regatta. This is a refreshing trend, since more recent Cups have been marred by an overemphasis on technology. Racing fans want action, not science. And in Auckland, they are getting it.

The most important factor in winning these races is picking the favored side of the course and winning the pre-start battle to get there first. All the science in the world can't do that. Intuition and clever tactical routines are the difference.

AmericaOne and Prada, for example, frequently hoisted a crewmember aloft to read the weather patterns. Certainly in-house meteorologists presented the large picture, but it was the call on the spot that proved to be critical. Surprisingly, Stars & Stripes did not put a man aloft at the start of its final race against America True, missed a huge right windshift and never recovered.

America True's coed team had the satisfaction of playing spoiler by eliminating Dennis Conner from America's Cup 2000. Captain Dawn Riley, Katie Pettibone, Lisa Charles-McDonald and Leslie Egnot were on board America True for the final race. They were also on board Mighty Mary in 1995, when Conner came from behind to knock the all-women's team out of the Cup that year. For Riley, it was a sweet victory.

After the race, Prada's syndicate head, Patrizio Bertelli, sent over 200 cases of beer wrapped in a red ribbon as a thank you. With the amount of money he spent, it should have been a Ferrari.

On to the Louis Vuitton Cup final, which will prove to be a tough match for both teams. The competition will be helpful when the survivor goes against the highly prepared and well-funded Team New Zealand next month in the America's Cup finals. It will be a fascinating test to see if the lessons learned from the challenger elimination process will be enough to overcome New Zealand's home-course advantage.

Having been in New Zealand for 30 of the 40 days of racing, I have watched first-hand the performance of both teams. So far, Prada seems to have a slight edge in boatspeed. But the afterguard is new to the America's Cup and match racing. The Italians have had an unlimited budget and lots of great coaching, but when the heat comes on they tend to make mistakes.

Last week in an unbelievable thriller, AmericaOne and Prada sailed for three miles overlapped on the run to the finish. Both boats received a penalty for a rules infraction. But AmericaOne skipper Paul Cayard engineered his boat from slightly behind to eight seconds ahead. It is this kind of racing that improves both teams.

Making efficient use of the time before the finals is essential. Both teams have two boats and will continue to experiment and fine-tune.

AmericaOne's learning curve seems to be on the rise, while Prada seems to have reached a plateau. Both crews operate their boats well. AmericaOne seemed to have persistent sail-handling problems in the early rounds, but in the semis they were flawless, except for one tack against Stars & Stripes. I give the Americans a slight edge in the crew category.

The tacticians on both boats are great. John Kostecki has won an Olympic Silver medal and several world championships. He is a clear thinker and very calm in the heat of battle. His rival, Brazilian Torben Grael, is a three-time Olympic medallist and Star Class world champion. His style matches Kostecki's closely, but Grael is emotional. I give the edge to Kostecki.

Prada's designers, Doug Petersen and German Frers, have produced a swift boat. AmericaOne's Bruce Nelson has had his designs reach the America's Cup final two of the last three Cups (I discount the 1988 match as a farce). As I mentioned, I give Prada a slight edge in speed, but this could change over the next 10 days with further refinements.

Prada's financing is way ahead of AmericaOne's. It is always difficult to know precisely what a team is spending, but the ratio is in the order of three to one in favor of the Italians.

	“	The sense here in Auckland is that Prada will look to find a breech of the America's Cup protocol if they are not winning. The Italian press is filled with American conspiracy theories. ”

Prada is worrisome in the legal arena. When they suddenly faced elimination before America True knocked out Stars & Stripes, they filed two protests against Stars & Stripes. One was for the unbelievable crime of borrowing "intellectual property" from the mainsail of Young America. They must have heard in a bar that Young America's main trimmer eased the traveler down in puffs. While that sounds funny, the fact is Prada has seven lawyers in Auckland looking hard at AmericaOne.

Cayard, for his part, has demonstrated in the last two Cups and the Whitbread that he is not the protesting type. But the sense here in Auckland is that Prada will look to find a breech of the America's Cup protocol if they are not winning. The Italian press is filled with American conspiracy theories. Somehow they don't understand that the American rivalries are incredibly intense.

So, like a football team where the quarterback is the hub everyone works around, the skippers could be the crucial element. The pressures on Paul Cayard and Prada's Francesco de Angelis are very different.

Cayard is the CEO of his team. He has raised the money, manages the syndicate and carries the hopes of San Francisco on his shoulders. His vision to bring the Cup back to his hometown and improve the event is Cayard's driving incentive. Cayard admits that he hasn't put enough time into sailing because of his CEO duties. But in the semifinals he was back to his top form.

De Angelis is an employee. He has a tough taskmaster in syndicate head Patrizio Bertelli. Bertelli has had several tirades when his team has lost. This event is on the front page of the Italian papers every day. The pressure on the mild-mannered deAngelis is immense.

Both teams will win at least two races in the finals, but I give Cayard the edge. As far as AmericaOne's chances against Team New Zealand, we'll understand this better after the Louis Vuitton Cup.

Gary Jobson is ESPN's lead sailing analyst.