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Home-gulf advantage gives Kiwis an edge

ESPN

AUCKLAND, New Zealand -- Finally, beginning this weekend, two boats will meet for the 30th America's Cup.

Over the past two weeks I've interviewed all the key players from Team New Zealand and Italy's Prada syndicate, and I can report neither side has an accurate clue how its boat will perform versus the other.

The sailors demonstrate respect for each other, while the designers have been the ones throwing barbs back and forth. In 1995, principle designers Doug Peterson (Italy) and Laurie Davidson (New Zealand) successfully worked together on the same team but now find themselves as rivals. Ironically for both designers, the final outcome is in the hands of the sailors and possibly the weather.

Throughout the 202 Louis Vuitton Cup challenger series races, we learned that each boat had strengths and weaknesses depending on the strength of the wind. Early speculation says Prada may be faster in lighter breezes while New Zealand is faster in stronger winds.

I sailed on board NZL60 -- New Zealand's "Black Magic" -- with Russell Coutts on Monday. This is a well-oiled team that is extremely anxious to race. They have been preparing for five years. As I look at the New Zealand crew roster, it is hard to think of any individual on any other boat who is better. If you were to create an America's Cup all-star team, you will find it on board NZL60.

Initially, at least, both boats will be very cautious during pre-start maneuvers. I expect the first leg of Race 1 to be a speed test -- tacking duels will come later. Both crews are mindful that this regatta is a best-of-9 series, so losing an early race is not critical.

What matters most is evaluating performance and making quick improvements from race to race. Unlike the Louis Vuitton Cup, which featured races almost daily, there are several scheduled breaks throughout the series. Each recess will allow the boats to evaluate and improve.

Just before racetime there were two issues to be resolved under the protocol. Team New Zealand is demanding that penalty turns be made instantly after a call and that umpires ride on the boats to judge overlaps. Throughout the Louis Vuitton Cup there were no umpires on board and the first penalty could be executed anytime during the race. A five-person arbitration panel is expected to rule before the start of racing Saturday (Friday night in the United States).

Throughout the long months of the Challenger Trials, the Race Committee fine-tuned its methods and did a very good job running the races and controlling spectator craft. For the America's Cup, the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron now takes control. Several thousand boats are expected out on the race course, including the luxury cruise ship Silver Cloud. Keeping the course clear for the race boats will be a huge task.

New Zealand may enjoy a home-gulf advantage. If the wind is light, for example, and Prada does prove to be faster, the committee could wait for more wind. These are the subtle things that could be determining factors.

Prada coach Rod Davis says his team is ready. He told me if there were another two weeks they would have nothing left to prepare. Davis has served as trial horse skipper for 2½ years; his team's performance will reflect his work.

I find it sad that for the first time in 149 years there is no U.S. boat in the finals. After a valiant effort, AmericaOne skipper Paul Cayard will be on the sidelines but will join us on ESPN2 periodically for his view on the races. Four U.S. syndicates are likely to try again, including America True, Stars & Stripes, AmericaOne, and possibly Young America.

John Kolius will most likely not return to the America's Cup as a syndicate organizer.

While Team New Zealand does enjoy a home advantage since the entire team grew up on the Hauraki Gulf, Italy's tactician Torben Grael thinks this could actually be a disadvantage because weather patterns often play games during big regattas. Grael has won three Olympic medals and a Star World Championship and points out he had his most difficult regatta when the Star Worlds were held in his home waters.

It would be refreshing to see the America's Cup move to Europe for the first time since 1851. But based on my experience following the races and sailing on the boats here, I expect New Zealand to retain the cup in seven races.

Gary Jobson is ESPN's lead sailing analyst.

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