One of my favorite lines from The Simpsons is when Marge asks Bart if he'll please try to be good.

"I can't promise I'll try," Bart says. "But I'll try to try."

In that spirit, here are 15 things I'm expecting to expect this season. For those of you new to town, please remember our long-standing ground rules: If any of these predictions comes true, I will take all credit. If not, I will forget I ever wrote this. And you should, too.

1) I expect the Hornets to be in the Finals

Who has more quality at more positions than New Orleans? At the point: Baron Davis. At the two: David Wesley and Courtney Alexander, who has been sensational in workouts. At the three: Jamal Mashburn and George Lynch. At the four: P.J. Brown and Lee Nailon. At the five: Elden Campbell and Jamaal Magliore.

	Mashburn

Mashburn is recovered from the vertigo that kept him out of the playoffs, and hopefully, Davis is recovered from his subpar performance at the World Championships. Even Tractor Traylor "looks like a different person," according to coach Paul Silas. Brown and Campbell are entering contract years and should be on line for big seasons.

Plus, I can't help but think that getting out from under the mess in Charlotte will have a liberating effect on everyone. The death of Bobby Phills in 2000 put the franchise under a cloud in Charlotte from which it never really recovered; the relocation issues of the last two years only added to the gloom. New Orleans has embraced the team from top to bottom and crowd support should be as strong as it was in the good old days. The Hornets have been in the conference semis the past two seasons. I think they play in June this season.

2) I expect the Lakers to join them
My instinct tells me this is the year the Lakers have to fall, because the Kings and Spurs were already really good and they both made themselves even better in the offseason. Sacramento added Keon Clark to an already-formidable bench and got Mike Bibby signed to a long-term deal. San Antonio added Speedy Claxton to back up Tony Parker, Argentina's Emanuel Ginobili to supplant Steve Smith at the two and Kevin Willis to give David Robinson a blow at center. My gut tells me that L.A. can't beat both the Kings and Spurs for a third straight year in back-to-back playoff series, that one of them, or the Mavericks, will beat the Lakers up so bad that the other will finally be able to finish them off.

	Bryant

	O'Neal

But then, three mathematical certainties come to mind:
a. No one on this planet can guard Shaq, and
b. No one on this planet can guard Kobe, and
c. No one on this planet is a better playoff performer right now than Robert Horry.

Are those three guys still there? Okay. Then the Lakers win.

3) I expect Kevin Garnett to blow up, or blow up
Minnesota still believes in its franchise player: The Wolves didn't even consider Portland's offer last month of Rasheed Wallace and Bonzi Wells (via sign and trade before he inked his four-year, $28M deal Monday) for Kevin Garnett. Flip Saunders is working on new schemes out of necessity -- it doesn't look very encouraging for Terrell Brandon -- to make the Wolves more diverse on offense this season. More two-guard fronts, more triangle. And more KG with the ball, more KG initiating the Wolves' offense.

"He's taken a lot of different shots from people about the playoffs," Saunders says. "In the past, we've said, 'OK, KG's here; how does he makes his teammates better. Now we're going to try to put everyone else in other positions where they can make him better." And if they don't, I think you'll see KG admit that he meant every word of those lines from his new gear commercials.

4) I expect Vince Carter to put a hurting on somebody

	Carter

Too many folks dissed Vinsanity after an injury plagued 2001-02 season. Too many people forgot that VC took the Raptors deep into the playoffs the year before. Too many people took delight in his lack of verticality because of his knee injury. Too many folks laughing. Too many ordinary players talking smack. I expect Toronto to pick up where it left off before last season, going deep into the postseason, again. And I expect Carter to get more than a couple of MVP votes this year ...

5) ... but I expect Shaq to actually walk away with the hardware
No doubt that Jason Kidd and Tim Duncan and Kobe and AI and T Mac and C Webb are all going to have something to say about this. But I can see Shaq coming on like a freight train the second half to overtake Duncan. Remember, TD started last season still not quite sure of himself after his knee injury the year before. He'll play great from Game 1 this season and will no doubt will be anointed MVP at the All-Star break. But these things tend to turn as the season goes on, and I think the Diesel will hit his stride at the right time.

6) I expect the Hawks to dole out those rebates
Atlanta's going in the right direction, getting Big Dog at bargain basement prices to play next to Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Nobody in the East may have two better forwards.

Theo Ratliff really is healthy, from all accounts, and the team has rallied behind DerMarr Johnson, out for the season with a broken neck. But even with Ratliff in the back, the Hawks still won't make anybody forget the Bad Boys, if you know what I'm saying. Ira Newble, Emanuel Davis and Dion Glover are battling for the two spot beside Jason Terry, and that's pretty much the same group I saw Jordan torch last season in the ATL.

7) I expect the Clippers to be in a lot of trouble
I really didn't want this to be true, but there's no way that Andre Miller will be able to calm down the tornado raging inside the LAC's locker room. Daily sniping and arguing over minutes and plays. There's just not a whole lot of leadership there.

Quentin Richardson, still down over the trade of his home slice D Miles, has moved out of the house he was living in and is now renting month to month. Twelve months from now, when Mike Olowokandi is in San Antonio, and Elton Brand is counting down the days until he can book out of town, and they're waxing about the potential of Chris Wilcox and Melvin Ely and whoever fell to them again in the lottery, remember where you read it first.

8) I expect Yao Ming to struggle this season
Not because the NBA game is too different, or because NBA players are too tough, but because he's exhausted. Yao Ming hasn't had any real time off in almost two years and he'll join the Rockets -- we think he'll join the Rockets -- in mid-October, immediately after another Chinese National Team stint for the Asian Games. There's no way he'll be able to hold weight or keep his conditioning with the league's year-long grind. He may hit the wall at game 20, not game 40.

9) I expect Argentina's Emanuel Ginobili to win Rookie of the Year
Wait until you see the Spurs' next star play. He can put it on the floor and he can score and he can rebound. He has no doubt that he belongs in the League and will blaze his own trail. And he will be on a great team. So he may not put up the numbers of other guys like Dajuan Wagner, but he'll be a bigger contributor to his team's success.

10) I expect the Celtics to take a step back
His ex-teammates, almost to a man, called Kenny Anderson after he was dealt to Seattle in the Vin Baker trade and told him they couldn't believe the C's made the deal. And as you were told in July, this was not Jim O'Brien's idea.

I just think when you have real chemistry, like Boston did last season, you mess with it at your peril. When you get everyone to sell out on defense and not mind when Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker take all the shots, you keep that group around. Baker will give the Celtics some low-post scoring and boarding, but this team won last season because it stopped people, not because it outscored them.

11) I expect the Nuggets to be historically bad
Maybe not 9-73, Fred Carter-best-player-on-the-worst-team-in-NBA-history bad, but bad.

Their projected starting lineup: Kenny Satterfield and James Posey in the backcourt, George McCloud (or newcomer Rodney White) at the three, Juwan Howard at the four, Marcus Camby at the five. Their major goal for the season: finishing .500 at home. (If they do, Jeff Bzdelik should immediately demand a new contract.) Their biggest addition: a renovated players' lounge and locker room. Their significant accomplishment: if Howard gets 20+ shots a game. You know what we think around here about Bzdelik, who will have his young group in great shape. And Nene Hilario and Nick Tskitishvili have bright futures. But will management be as understanding after another 60-or-more loss season if it doesn't land LeBron James in the Mile High? Because that's Denver's biggest hope for quick improvement. No big-time free agent is going there until there's more talent in the well.

12) I expect the Grizzlies to be better than you think
I might be under the spell of the Logo, I grant you that. But Jerry West's track record speaks for itself, so if he thinks Drew Gooden and Earl Watson and Gordan Giricek are ballers, I'll go along with it. Maybe Shane Battier can play a little two-guard. Maybe he can move Stromile Swift (though the Magic aren't inclined right now to part with Mike Miller for Swift and Brevin Knight). Maybe Jason Williams turns his game just a little toward consistent and becomes a true leader. Maybe Lorenzen Wright can stay healthy and give Memphis some board work in the middle -- which would also keep Sid Lowe from having to play Pau Gasol in the hole. I saw the Spanish Fly play center for Spain at the Worlds -- he can do it, but do you really want him to?

Maybe I'm just crazy. But I don't think so.

13) I expect Michael Jordan to come off the bench
Does MJ have an ego? Obviously. But he also sees the big picture.

	Jordan

Jordan now has a multi-million dollar investment in the Wizards (whether he actually put up any of his own money is a question) and he knows that in order to maximize that investment, Washington has to start getting something out of Kwame Brown. The best way is if Brown can feed off the largesse created by Jordan's drawing double-team attention as a fellow reserve. Easy shots lead to confidence, which leads to more easy shots. Jordan can get that for not only Brown, but also rookies Jared Jeffries and Juan Dixon. Nobody is saying Jordan won't be on the floor in crunch time. The question is, when he's on the floor in the fourth, has he played 20 minutes, or 35?

And if Jordan hasn't left everything out on the floor the previous night, he'll have more to teach the young'uns the next day.

"One of the things that he was disappointed in last season was he couldn't get on the practice court (because of the big minute loads during games)," Doug Collins said on Monday. "He's such a great leader and for him to be the leader that he can be he has to be on the practice court. Even if it's just for 30 minutes."

14) I expect to see a lot more zone defense played this season
With a year under their belts, coaches have figured out what worked and what didn't; they also know that there aren't 10 guys in this league that can consistently stroke the rock from deep. And with as many bad teams as there are in the league these days, playing zone keeps you in games against superior talent.

Even good teams like New Jersey packed it in against the Celtics in the Eastern finals last spring and turned that series around. Unless you're playing the Bucks or the Kings, why wouldn't you make as many people as possible beat you from the outside?

15) I expect Grant Hill to be an All-Star again
Everyone says the same thing: 33 has his first step back, which means he's going to the cup again instead of settling for jumpers. That makes all the difference in the world. Grant Hill exploded off the dribble during Orlando's first day of practice; afterward, he told teammates he'd gotten to the basket more in one day than he had all last season. And that means you'll probably see Hill and Tracy McGrady in two-guard fronts, high post sets, whatever Doc Rivers can come up with to get them on the floor together.

That doesn't solve the Magic's big problem in the middle; I hear Shawn Kemp is 30 pounds overweight and not likely to be much of a contributor any time soon, if at all. But they could be Mavericks East, the team you least want to play when you're tired and funky.

David Aldridge is an NBA reporter for ESPN.