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Thursday, January 16
 
Winning close games will boost Sonics

By Dr. Jack Ramsay
Special to ESPN.com

Editor's note: Each week during the NBA regular season, Dr. Jack Ramsay makes a house call with an ailing team.

This week's team: Seattle SuperSonics.

The Symptoms
Jerome James
The Sonics need more of a defensive presence down low from Jerome James, left.
The Sonics started the season with an 8-2 record but have gone 8-18 since, including five straight losses going into tonight's game in Utah. They shoot the ball well enough (44 percent from the field and 36 percent from 3-point land) but allow their opponents to shoot 44 percent and 38 percent in the same categories. They're weak on the boards -- allowing a two-rebound deficit a game -- and are outscored on average, 93-91. Those are not numbers accrued by elite NBA teams.

But the most damaging factor for the Sonics this season has been its inability to win close games. The Sonics have been involved in 12 games decided by three points or less, and have lost eight of them.

Seattle had a tough early-season schedule as it usually does. Before a brief three-game home stand that included games with low-ranking Denver and Cleveland, the team had played nine more games on the road than at home. With a good chance to get back on track, Seattle lost all three of those games. Coach Nate McMillan said after the loss to Cleveland, "I've never, ever been involved in a situation like this as a player or coach ... This will remain a devastating time for us."

Now, on the heels of the current losing streak, the Gary Payton-to-Indiana trade rumors have re-surfaced, and two players (Calvin Booth and Predrag Drobnjak) have openly expressed dissatisfaction with their situations with the team.

The Diagnosis
The Sonics play like a team walking on eggs. After so many close losses, they seem to be waiting for it to happen again and again. This is a team with pretty good personnel. Except for Payton and Kenny Anderson, the Sonics are young and would appear to have a strong upside. They've had some injuries (center Jerome James has missed all but nine games, and Brent Barry is just back after missing three) that have disrupted coach McMillan's playing rotation. But Payton remains his irrepressible self and leads his team in scoring (21.2 points a game), assists (a league-best 9.3 a game) and steals (1.6). He comes to play every night despite the swirling trade rumors.

Small forward Rashard Lewis appears to be on the cusp of star status and has improved his scoring totals each year he's been in the league. Lewis currently averages 17.4 points and 6.9 rebounds a game.

The two Yugoslavians, Vladimir Radmanovic (6-foot-10, 230 pounds) and Drobnjak (6-11, 270), are young but solid at big forward and center, respectively, and Barry, at two-guard, is coming off his best season in 2002 (14.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game). Desmond Mason (14.0 points a game) does a nice job as sixth man, and Anderson gives the team a veteran playmaker to rest Payton or pair with him so that Payton gets some minutes at shooting guard. James, Booth and Vitaly Potapenko are big-man backups, and rookie forward Reggie Evans is a banger on the boards.

McMillan said recently that he must find a way to get his team back on track. I couldn't agree more. As always with a struggling team, defense is the first thing to work on.

The Cure
Brent Barry
Brent Barry will do what the Sonics haven't been doing: hit open shots.
The Sonics need to get their personnel healthy -- especially Barry -- and then win some close games to restore their lost confidence. They rank 12th in the league in field-goal percentage (44.1) and turn the ball over only 13 times a game. The Sonics need to score more than 92 points a game, and with Payton at the controls, must execute better at crunch time. GP can create shots for himself or his teammates. He leads the league in assist/turnover ratio (3.74/1), and shoots 46 percent from the field. Open shooters must knock down their shots.

The greater problem for the Sonics is getting stops at the defensive end of the court. To do that, they must execute their defensive scheme better and improve their rebounding habits. Payton, although not the individual stopper he once was, has the skill and experience to be the team's defensive leader. A unified plan to force the ball baseline and stop penetration with weak-side helpers and an organized rotation to cover open shooters is a good start. Then, an emphasis on block-out/rebound tactics would get the job done. The Sonics have enough size and muscle to at least hold their own on the boards and enough speed to limit opposing fastbreaks. Those basics must be done on a consistent basis if McMillan's team is to stop its slide.

The Jazz are especially tough on their home court. A win there could turn the Sonics' season around. But if the losing continues, it might be time to move Payton. If they don't do it before the trade deadline on Feb. 20, Payton becomes a free agent at the end of the season, and the Sonics may lose him and get nothing in return.

Dr. Jack Ramsay, who is an NBA analyst for ESPN, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.





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