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Monday, January 13
 
Firing a shot at the they-can't-shoot theory

By Marc Stein
ESPN.com

Editor's note: As part of "The Stein Line" every Monday, ESPN.com senior NBA writer Marc Stein gives his take on things in "Slams and Dunks."

Warning: The following, a spin-off of our recent examination of NBA shooting, will disappoint those of you convinced that the basic fundamentals of the swish are in irretrievable decline.

Shaquille O'Neal
Like the rest of the NBA, Shaquille O'Neal's free-throw percentage is on the rise.
Because ...

The numbers say free-throw shooting isn't getting worse. To the contrary, free-throw shooting is picking up some.

Free throws are uncontested 15-footers which, in theory, offer a good measure of shooting technique. The Stein Line, fortunately, is blessed to have the best stat crew/research department this side of Harvey Pollack to do some numbers-crunching. Good friend Gary Adornato made the calculations at our behest and discovered that the league average for team free-throw shooting hasn't changed much at all in the past 10 seasons.

To wit:

Year		League Average
1993-94		75.4 percent
1994-95		73.4 percent
1995-96		73.7 percent
1996-97		74.0 percent
1997-98		73.8 percent
1998-99		72.8 percent (lockout season)
1999-00		75.0 percent
2000-01		74.7 percent
2001-02		75.2 percent
2002-03		75.0 percent (entering Sunday's play)

So percentages are actually rising, after a brief dip in the mid-1990s. Must be all those free throws Shaquille O'Neal missed that made us think no can shoot the 15-foot freebie anymore.

  • A new majority owner in Milwaukee, after Herb Kohl said over the weekend that he's looking for a buyer, would undoubtedly affect George Karl more than anyone. Karl's two-year, $14 million contract extension all but guarantees job security with the money-conscious Kohl in charge. That could change if a more free-spending successor materialized.

    Milos Vujanic
    Milos Vujanic, left, started at the point for Yugoslavia and should do the same for N.Y.

  • Did Scott Layden finally get one right? After trading for Howard Eisley's rich contract and awarding Allan Houston a too-rich contract and paying out more riches to Clarence Weatherspoon and Shandon Anderson?

    According to Vlade Divac, Layden did. Divac contends that point guard Milos Vujanic, drafted No. 36 overall by the Knicks last June, can wipe away (some of) the scars from the Frederic Weis draft -- before Layden's time, remember, so spare him the blame on that one -- once he arrives next season.

    "I look at New York," Divac said. "They need him."

    Asked if Vujanic can beat out Charlie Ward and/or Eisley, Divac added: "He's a much better player, believe me." At a healthy 6-4, Vujanic wound up starting at the point for Yugoslavia over the Clippers' Marko Jaric by the end of last summer's World Championships.

    The catch? Vujanic might not be a lock to arrive next season. He plays for Partizan Belgrade, whose team president happens to be Divac, and El Presidente says the club would love to see Vujanic graduate to the NBA in time for ESPN.com's 2003 Training Camp Tour. Yet there are whispers in Belgrade that Vujanic wants to go to a bigger European club before joining the Knicks. It's Partizan's preference, if the kid leaves, that he goes directly to the NBA. Stay tuned.

  • Job security? Golden State general manager Garry St. Jean's time was said to be running out, but a variety of factors make a dismissal at season's end not so inevitable.

    For starters, St. Jean has two years left on his contract and the Warriors -- unless Chris Cohan sells before Kohl -- generally don't eat that much.

    Then there's this: St. Jean's rookie (Eric Musselman) and three sophomores (Gilbert Arenas, Troy Murphy and Jason Richardson) are all outstripping expectations. Yes, even Richardson -- unless you expected him to rank in the top 10 in 3-point shooting at 42.4 percent. All three Warriors belong in the Rookies vs. Sophs game at All-Star Weekend in Atlanta.

    Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. To e-mail him, click here.





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