| Special Edition: NBA Playoffs |
 Abbott |
 Adande |
 Broussard |
 Hollinger |
 Sheridan |
 Stein |
| The playoffs matter most to which free agent's future? | Dirk Nowitzki |
LeBron James |
Amare Stoudemire |
Joe Johnson |
LeBron James |
LeBron James |
1. Playoffs Matter Most To Which Free Agent?
Henry Abbott, TrueHoop: Dirk Nowitzki
His game is unimpeachable. He has only improved since being named MVP. But the Mavs have played him with dozens of different teammates through the years.
These could be the playoffs when it became clear the Maverick model isn't a tweak or two away from returning to the Finals. His early termination option looms. Do both parties want more of the same?
J.A. Adande, ESPN.com: LeBron James
They're already showing the Misery Montage (The Drive, The Fumble, The Shot, etc.), and we're only in Round 1. If he wins a championship, it will be such a gift bestowed on the title-famished locals that he'll have the freedom to leave, but it might be more desirable to come back. If he doesn't win, he'll have to wonder whether he can ever have a better chance to bring a championship to Cleveland. Winning gives him options. Losing could leave him no choice.
Chris Broussard, ESPN The Magazine: Amare Stoudemire
Amare was all but out of Phoenix at the trade deadline, but since then, he's been brilliant, leading both player and team to wonder, "Why part ways?" If the Suns reach at least the Western Conference finals, I think the chances of re-signing Amare increase greatly.
A return won't be guaranteed because there will be other suitors offering max (or near max) money. But the Suns have Steve Nash on the books for two more years after this, so they're not looking to rebuild. If they prove this postseason that they're legit contenders with Amare, why not pay him? An early exit, though, and the Suns will figure, "We can get to the first round without paying this guy all this money."
John Hollinger, ESPN.com: Joe Johnson
The playoffs are big for Johnson on multiple levels. For starters, it's a lot easier to imagine the Hawks offering him a maximum contract on Day 1 of free agency if they can get past Milwaukee and put up a fight against the Magic in Round 2. Second, it's a lot easier to imagine Johnson staying if he knows who the coach will be, and it's a lot easier to imagine Atlanta's other prominent free agent, Mike Woodson, staying in town if Atlanta makes a decent run.
Additionally, every other free-agent domino affects Johnson, and most of those also are tethered to playoff outcomes. Cleveland's success affects LeBron James' plans, Phoenix's affects Amare Stoudemire's plans, Utah's affects Carlos Boozer's plans, and Miami's ouster affects Dwyane Wade's strategy. All those players, indirectly, affect Johnson, as they're even with or ahead of him in the queue as far as splashy free-agent acquisitions go.
Chris Sheridan, ESPN.com: LeBron James
I have to go with LeBron, simply because so many unknowns are attached to him, and he is the big domino if he indeed opts out. If the Cavs crash and burn, the chances of his leaving have to increase. If the Cavs win the title, then the pressure is on him to stand by his word that it's all about winning and stay in Cleveland. No franchise has had so much riding on one postseason since the summer of '96 when the Magic lost Shaq to the Lakers.
Marc Stein, ESPN.com: LeBron James
I would love to sit here and tell you that I am creative enough to manufacture someone else's name besides LeBron's. But there isn't a 2010 free agent who means more to the bonanza than LeBron.
What he does after July 1 is the domino that triggers everything else in free agency. And since Cleveland's playoff fate is a factor in LeBron's decision-making -- maybe not the biggest factor, but an undeniable key element because he has to believe in the much of roster Cleveland has now to want to stay -- LeBron strikes me as the only conceivable answer to this question.
Free Agency Dimes past: LeBron James | Dwyane Wade | Chris Bosh
3. Chasing The Ring
Free agents often tell us that they're all about winning. And that usually means their current teams haven't done enough of it for their liking.
Will the recent shortcomings of teams like Cleveland, Toronto and Miami reshape the NBA landscape this summer?
Here's a look at the recent W-L history of five of the top potential free agents:
HOW THEIR TEAMS FINISHED OVER LAST FIVE SEASONS
| Player | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 | 2008-09 | 2009-10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
50-32 Lost in Rd. 2 |
50-32 Lost in Finals |
45-37 Lost in Rd. 2 |
66-16 Lost in ECF |
61-21 Still playing |
 |
52-30 Won Finals |
44-38 Lost in Rd. 1 |
15-67 No playoffs |
43-39 Lost in Rd. 1 |
47-35 Lost in Rd. 1 |
 |
27-55 No playoffs |
47-35 Lost in Rd. 1 |
41-41 Lost in Rd. 1 |
33-49 No playoffs |
40-42 No playoffs |
 |
54-28 Lost in WCF |
61-21 Lost in Rd. 2 |
55-27 Lost in Rd. 1 |
46-36 No playoffs |
54-28 Still playing |
 |
26-56 No playoffs |
30-52 No playoffs |
37-45 Lost in Rd. 1 |
47-35 Lost in Rd. 2 |
53-29 Still playing |
4. Free Agent Watch: Knicks
TrueHoop Network
Note: We asked the TrueHoop Network's Knicks blogger to tell us which free agent he's watching most closely in the playoffs:
I want LeBron James to be a Knick, but it doesn't seem particularly clear to me whether that end would be best served by a Cavaliers title or a second-round flameout. Still, I'm rooting for the former.
It's possible, perhaps probable, that within a matter of months, all the LeBron-to-NYC hype will have proved to be just that -- that I'll spend next year complaining about Joe Johnson's shot selection and wondering why Toney Douglas won't pound the ball inside to Carlos Boozer. But for the months of May and June, I'll root for the greatest player in the world to be at his best -- technically proficient, athletically dominant, capable of making an otherwise unspectacular team into champions. I'll dream about how fast he might turn the Knicks' lemon-filled roster into blue and orange lemonade. I'll hope that, if he chooses New York, he'll arrive with a championship pedigree absent from MSG since the days of Clyde and Willis (and no, Isiah's Pistons rings definitely don't count).
I hope the Cavs win the title. I hope LeBron wins Finals MVP. But mostly -- and here I anticipate even Cavs fans' agreement -- I really hope his elbow is OK.
5. Free Agent Watch: Nets
TrueHoop Network
Note: We asked the TrueHoop Network's Nets blogger to tell us which free agent he's watching most closely in the playoffs:
Before the season started, if you would have asked me about the one free agent-to-be I wouldn't want to see on the Nets, my answer would have been Carlos Boozer. I thought he was a solid player, but I didn't really see his game fitting in with the current Nets roster, and I didn't really think he was a guy worth a max contract. However, the playoffs have really changed my opinion of Boozer.
I am really starting to think his style will fit with the Nets. His time with the Jazz has really made him into a very good pick-and-roll player, and pairing him with Devin Harris, who is a very good point guard when running the pick and roll, could lead to some pretty special things.
The Nets have a very good core in place (Brook Lopez, Devin Harris, Terrence Williams, Courtney Lee and a top-4 pick), but they seem to be missing one key piece -- a power forward. And while I have my sights set on Chris Bosh, I can see Boozer working out well for the team.
• For more thoughts on the Nets, visit Nets Are Scorching. 
6. Free Agent Watch: Clippers
TrueHoop Network
Note: We asked the TrueHoop Network's Clippers blogger to tell us which free agent he's watching most closely in the playoffs:
It's no secret that the Clippers desperately crave a small forward. The fulfillment checklist for this forward seems to grow by the day: He needs to be a defensive stopper, an effective threat from the perimeter, a solid defensive rebounder, a clutch scorer and a good distributor with playmaking abilities.
When viewing the playoffs, you have to watch and wonder whether Joe Johnson can be that guy, even if he's a little short to play the 3.
According to 82games.com, Joe Johnson is one of the best players in the league in clutch situations, which are defined as the fourth quarter or overtime, with less than 5 minutes left, with neither team ahead by more than five points. Johnson ranks eighth in the league in points per 48 minutes in the clutch, and out of the players who scored more than him, only that LeBron fella shot a higher field goal percentage. Also of note: Johnson shot 44 percent from the 3-point line and 88 percent from the free-throw line in those situations. The dude has ice water in his veins.
Trust me, I understand that it's fun to daydream about LeBron James, but that's just not happening. The Clippers need to take a meat-and-potatoes approach to free agency this time around, and there may not be an available player who better symbolizes that than Joe Johnson.
7. Free Agent Watch: Bulls
TrueHoop Network
Note: We asked the TrueHoop Network's Bulls blogger to tell us which free agent he's watching most closely in the playoffs:
• Joe Johnson is a hot-shooting (at times) 2 guard. The Bulls need a hot-shooting 2-guard. And if they can't get Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh, Johnson is probably among their Plans C, D, E, etc.
However, Joe's performance Wednesday night in Atlanta's 91-87 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks wasn't pretty.
There's no better time for a star player to step up than home games against inferior opponents. But Johnson did not. That's a concern. If Joe demands a max or close-to-the-max contract this offseason, well, I'm not sure that would be the best use of the Bulls' money. Johnson is an All-Star, but not a superstar.
• This is what Dwyane Wade had to say after his Miami Heat were eliminated from the playoffs by the Boston Celtics:
"This will be my last first-round exit for a while, I can tell you that. I'm looking forward to continuing to build, and being with some great players next year, continuing to beef up our roster. I think I put myself in a great situation three years ago, to sign this deal, to make sure my team stayed competitive. We've got some work to do, the front office has [work] to do. You just have to see things being done, being accomplished. If we see that, we'll be talking again."
That doesn't sound like someone who's seriously considering a change of address.
8. Free Agent Watch: Mavs And C's
Two older teams that could use a new look:
Note: We asked the TrueHoop Network's Mavs blogger and Celtics blogger to tell us which free agent he's watching most closely in the playoffs:
If I'm the Mavs, I have my eyes fixed on the fortunes of two players, one of which is an incredibly unlikely target and the other only mildly unlikely: Dwyane Wade and Joe Johnson.
Caron Butler is only the illusion of a starting shooting guard. He can, in theory, shoot, score, handle the ball a bit, and defend. He just doesn't manage to do the first two efficiently, and his defensive abilities are solid and likely to diminish only with his age. Butler's Game 5 explosion was so welcome because of the contrast it posed to his typically inefficient scoring nights, and having other scoring threats like Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry around Butler hasn't elevated his efficiency like we thought it might. He's more or less the same player he was in Washington, only playing well into April.
That leaves the Mavs still looking for a legitimate 2-guard, and the combination of Damp's contract provisions and Butler's expiring deal gives Dallas a unique opportunity.
-- Rob Mahoney, TrueHoop Network
• For more on Dallas, visit The Two Man Game.
As I watched the Celtics dispatch the Heat in the first round of 2010 NBA playoffs, I could not help but keep one eye (or at least my mind's eye) on the impending offseason -- and the drama that may ensue.
If there is a GM in the league willing to take some big risks with big moves, it is the Celtics' Danny Ainge. Remember, this is the same guy who traded away Boston fan favorite Antoine Walker; brought in league pariah Vin Baker; and took fliers on personal-favorite busts Jiri Welsch, Marcus Banks and Yi Jianlian (well, almost, anyway). While Ainge is not so proudly remembered for making these moves early in his GM career, he also deserves credit for the moves he orchestrated that eventually led the Celtics to hang their 17th championship banner.
The bottom line: When it comes to Danny Ainge and the Celtics, you cannot always count on the conventional.
-- Brendan Jackson, TrueHoop Network
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